📈 Chinese tech stocks are 2025's best asset
Everyone dumped Chinese tech; a Trump-Xi grand deal, massive cheap electricity buildout, and the CCP throttling entrepreneurship back up make beaten-down, single-digit-multiple Chinese tech (Alibaba etc.) poised for a big 2025 run.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 77.0 GREEN
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG KWEB
expression · bullish equities
RIGHT
result · return +32.7% · vs SPY +16.6%
2026-01-04
born 2025-01-04 (E209) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG KWEB (primary play). KWEB rose 32.7% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +32.7% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1% → vs SPY = +32.7 − (+16.1) = +16.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 32.7, vs SPY 16.6)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Gavin Baker, Travis Kalanick | opposed: Ben Shapiro, Friedberg, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-04)
Plays
Mention log newest first
PH
Phil Deutch
(guest ×0.5)
no equities track record
· E238 (2025-08-09) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 38:21
OPPOSE
“And if you didn't control the chop, the thing that made the stamp, you didn't actually control the factory. That is not a long-term recipe for success.”
Gavin Baker
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 67% · n=9
· E238 (2025-08-09) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 36:35
SUPPORT
“The second thing I would say is I do think they are making an effort to throttle it up.”
Jason
equities 49% · n=105
· E222 (2025-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:29:28
OPPOSE
“You may not like it when these companies get too powerful, but what happened to Jack Ma is the reason, Friedberg, that I don't believe a dictator will ever compete with our country if we stay entrepreneurial and not socialist.”
Ben Shapiro
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 30% · n=5
· E222 (2025-04-05) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:27:01
OPPOSE
“So first of all, I think that China does face some serious, real serious structural problems ranging from demographics to debt.”
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E222 (2025-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:26:33
SUPPORT
“Now they've pushed it forward again. And that's what drives the growth and the improvement in productivity and this extraordinary abundance in energy, in mining and now in manufacturing. And it's, I think, going to lead to a great era of prosperity for China.”
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E215 (2025-02-15) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 37:24
SUPPORT
“And it creates this, you know, because of this manifestation about worrying about downside, it creates this fear that creates regulation like we see in the EU. And as a result, China's GDP will scale while the EUs will stagnate, if that's where they go. That's my assessment or my opinion on what will happen.”
Travis Kalanick
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities: 2 resolved, unproven
· E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 51:06
SUPPORT
“So, but what happens is when you get really, really good at copying, and that time gets tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter, you eventually run out of things to copy. And then it flips to creativity, to creativity and innovation.”
Mark Pincus
(guest ×0.5)
no equities track record
· E211 (2025-01-18) · positioning · strength 3
▶ 1:19:08
SUPPORT
“I I've been loading up on Alibaba, a couple of Chinese names with the same bet.”
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E211 (2025-01-18) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:17:22
SUPPORT
· horizon 6mo
“So this kind of also leads to what I think will be the grand deal with China, which I think will happen in the first six months of the Trump administration. I'm obviously speculating, but it feels like there's going to be some work out here. China is like in a lot of economic distress. I don't know if you guys have followed much on the stories of the deflationary challenges that China is dealing with. Chinese bonds are trading at a below 2% yield now, which is kind of unprecedented.”
Gavin Baker
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities 67% · n=9
· E209 (2025-01-04) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 1:20:16
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“Really cheap... I tend to agree with a lot of what David said. I think Trump and Xi both want a deal... there are really, really high quality companies, some of them at mid-single digit multiples. [But he keeps a personal 'no-China guideline' since the Longtop fraud.]”
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:17:39
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“I went with Chinese tech stocks, Chinese tech ETFs... they're trying to line up the great deal with China... cost per kilowatt hour is already lower... these stocks are pretty cheap. I was just looking at Alibaba... poised for a pretty good run in 25 if the macro works out.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -61.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E209 2025-01-04 | init | +40.0 | 40.0 | E209 born by Friedberg (annual_prediction x2) |
| E209 2025-01-04 | reinforce | +10.8 | 50.8 | E209 Gavin Baker support x1 (new voice) |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -2.0 | 48.8 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | reinforce | +9.2 | 58.0 | E211 Friedberg support x3 |
| E211 2025-01-18 | reinforce | +7.6 | 65.6 | E211 Jason support x1 (new voice) |
| E211 2025-01-18 | reinforce | +4.7 | 70.2 | E211 Mark Pincus support x3 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -2.8 | 67.4 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | reinforce | +3.7 | 71.1 | E213 Travis Kalanick support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -2.8 | 68.2 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | reinforce | +3.8 | 72.0 | E215 Friedberg support x1 |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -2.9 | 69.2 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -2.8 | 66.4 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | reinforce | +7.6 | 73.9 | E218 Chamath support x2 (new voice) |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -3.0 | 71.0 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -2.8 | 68.2 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | reinforce | +4.8 | 72.9 | E221 Jason support x2 |
| E222 2025-04-05 | reinforce | +4.1 | 77.0 | E222 Friedberg support x2 |
| E222 2025-04-05 | oppose | -6.0 | 71.0 | E222 Ben Shapiro opposes x2 [w=0.50] |
| E222 2025-04-05 | oppose | -14.4 | 56.6 | E222 Jason opposes x3 |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -2.3 | 54.3 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | reinforce | +6.9 | 61.2 | E224 Chamath support x2 |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -2.4 | 58.7 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -2.3 | 56.4 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -2.3 | 54.1 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -2.2 | 52.0 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -2.1 | 49.9 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -2.0 | 47.9 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -1.9 | 46.0 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -1.8 | 44.1 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -1.8 | 42.4 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -1.7 | 40.7 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -1.6 | 39.0 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -1.6 | 37.5 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | oppose | -12.0 | 25.5 | E238 Friedberg opposes x2 |
| E238 2025-08-09 | reinforce | +11.2 | 36.7 | E238 Gavin Baker support x2 |
| E238 2025-08-09 | oppose | -6.0 | 30.7 | E238 Phil Deutch opposes x2 [w=0.50] |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -1.0 | 24.0 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.8 | 20.4 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.8 | 18.0 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.7 | 16.0 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E256 silent |