📈 Chinese tech stocks are 2025's best asset

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:17:39 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“I went with Chinese tech stocks, Chinese tech ETFs... they're trying to line up the great deal with China... cost per kilowatt hour is already lower... these stocks are pretty cheap. I was just looking at Alibaba... poised for a pretty good run in 25 if the macro works out.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=1.33 · n=9 · E209 (2025-01-04) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:20:16 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“Really cheap... I tend to agree with a lot of what David said. I think Trump and Xi both want a deal... there are really, really high quality companies, some of them at mid-single digit multiples. [But he keeps a personal 'no-China guideline' since the Longtop fraud.]”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E211 (2025-01-18) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:17:22 SUPPORT · horizon 6mo

“So this kind of also leads to what I think will be the grand deal with China, which I think will happen in the first six months of the Trump administration. I'm obviously speculating, but it feels like there's going to be some work out here. China is like in a lot of economic distress. I don't know if you guys have followed much on the stories of the deflationary challenges that China is dealing with. Chinese bonds are trading at a below 2% yield now, which is kind of unprecedented.”

Mark Pincus (guest ×0.5) no equities track record · E211 (2025-01-18) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 1:19:08 SUPPORT

“I I've been loading up on Alibaba, a couple of Chinese names with the same bet.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E211 (2025-01-18) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:18:49 SUPPORT

“Trump is a great negotiator. It's probably his greatest strength. And he's great at saber rattling. And we're strong. They're weak right now. A grand deal could be an awesome.”

Travis Kalanick (regular guest ×1.0) equities: 2 resolved, unproven · E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 51:06 SUPPORT

“So, but what happens is when you get really, really good at copying, and that time gets tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter, you eventually run out of things to copy. And then it flips to creativity, to creativity and innovation.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E215 (2025-02-15) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 37:24 SUPPORT

“And it creates this, you know, because of this manifestation about worrying about downside, it creates this fear that creates regulation like we see in the EU. And as a result, China's GDP will scale while the EUs will stagnate, if that's where they go. That's my assessment or my opinion on what will happen.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E218 (2025-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 7:01 SUPPORT

“Quen, which is the open source Alibaba, dropped a Rev, which seems actually really best in class. So that was really interesting.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E221 (2025-03-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 24:46 SUPPORT

“It's kind of getting set up that almost everything we're building here in the US, China's copying at a very fast pace and then exceeding.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E222 (2025-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:26:33 SUPPORT

“Now they've pushed it forward again. And that's what drives the growth and the improvement in productivity and this extraordinary abundance in energy, in mining and now in manufacturing. And it's, I think, going to lead to a great era of prosperity for China.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E222 (2025-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:29:28 OPPOSE

“You may not like it when these companies get too powerful, but what happened to Jack Ma is the reason, Friedberg, that I don't believe a dictator will ever compete with our country if we stay entrepreneurial and not socialist.”

Ben Shapiro (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.60 · n=5 · E222 (2025-04-05) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:27:01 OPPOSE

“So first of all, I think that China does face some serious, real serious structural problems ranging from demographics to debt.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E224 (2025-04-19) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 45:43 SUPPORT

“So then you think about, OK, well, what is the implication of this? Well, the implication is obvious. These guys are inventing things. We're playing catch up.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E238 (2025-08-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 32:18 OPPOSE

“And so they are, I would say, rate limited at this point by this particular chart in terms of their competitiveness.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=1.33 · n=9 · E238 (2025-08-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 36:35 SUPPORT

“The second thing I would say is I do think they are making an effort to throttle it up.”

Phil Deutch (guest ×0.5) no equities track record · E238 (2025-08-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 38:21 OPPOSE

“And if you didn't control the chop, the thing that made the stamp, you didn't actually control the factory. That is not a long-term recipe for success.”