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📈 Chinese tech stocks are 2025's best asset

Everyone dumped Chinese tech; a Trump-Xi grand deal, massive cheap electricity buildout, and the CCP throttling entrepreneurship back up make beaten-down, single-digit-multiple Chinese tech (Alibaba etc.) poised for a big 2025 run.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 77.0 GREEN
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG KWEB
expression · bullish equities
RIGHT
result · return +32.7% · vs SPY +16.6%
2026-01-04
born 2025-01-04 (E209) → window closed

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG KWEB (primary play). KWEB rose 32.7% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +32.7% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1% → vs SPY = +32.7 − (+16.1) = +16.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 32.7, vs SPY 16.6)
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    · WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Gavin Baker, Travis Kalanick | opposed: Ben Shapiro, Friedberg, Jason

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-04)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG KWEBetf PRIMARY 'Chinese tech ETFs' — the standard vehicle
▲ LONG BABAstock adjacent the one name he checked the multiple on

Mention log newest first

PH
Phil Deutch (guest ×0.5) no equities track record · E238 (2025-08-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 38:21 OPPOSE
“And if you didn't control the chop, the thing that made the stamp, you didn't actually control the factory. That is not a long-term recipe for success.”
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) equities 67% · n=9 · E238 (2025-08-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 36:35 SUPPORT
“The second thing I would say is I do think they are making an effort to throttle it up.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E238 (2025-08-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 32:18 OPPOSE
“And so they are, I would say, rate limited at this point by this particular chart in terms of their competitiveness.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E224 (2025-04-19) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 45:43 SUPPORT
“So then you think about, OK, well, what is the implication of this? Well, the implication is obvious. These guys are inventing things. We're playing catch up.”
Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E222 (2025-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:29:28 OPPOSE
“You may not like it when these companies get too powerful, but what happened to Jack Ma is the reason, Friedberg, that I don't believe a dictator will ever compete with our country if we stay entrepreneurial and not socialist.”
Ben Shapiro
Ben Shapiro (regular guest ×1.0) equities 30% · n=5 · E222 (2025-04-05) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:27:01 OPPOSE
“So first of all, I think that China does face some serious, real serious structural problems ranging from demographics to debt.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E222 (2025-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:26:33 SUPPORT
“Now they've pushed it forward again. And that's what drives the growth and the improvement in productivity and this extraordinary abundance in energy, in mining and now in manufacturing. And it's, I think, going to lead to a great era of prosperity for China.”
Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E221 (2025-03-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 24:46 SUPPORT
“It's kind of getting set up that almost everything we're building here in the US, China's copying at a very fast pace and then exceeding.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E218 (2025-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 7:01 SUPPORT
“Quen, which is the open source Alibaba, dropped a Rev, which seems actually really best in class. So that was really interesting.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E215 (2025-02-15) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 37:24 SUPPORT
“And it creates this, you know, because of this manifestation about worrying about downside, it creates this fear that creates regulation like we see in the EU. And as a result, China's GDP will scale while the EUs will stagnate, if that's where they go. That's my assessment or my opinion on what will happen.”
Travis Kalanick
Travis Kalanick (regular guest ×1.0) equities: 2 resolved, unproven · E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 51:06 SUPPORT
“So, but what happens is when you get really, really good at copying, and that time gets tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter and tighter, you eventually run out of things to copy. And then it flips to creativity, to creativity and innovation.”
Mark Pincus
Mark Pincus (guest ×0.5) no equities track record · E211 (2025-01-18) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 1:19:08 SUPPORT
“I I've been loading up on Alibaba, a couple of Chinese names with the same bet.”
Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E211 (2025-01-18) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:18:49 SUPPORT
“Trump is a great negotiator. It's probably his greatest strength. And he's great at saber rattling. And we're strong. They're weak right now. A grand deal could be an awesome.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E211 (2025-01-18) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:17:22 SUPPORT · horizon 6mo
“So this kind of also leads to what I think will be the grand deal with China, which I think will happen in the first six months of the Trump administration. I'm obviously speculating, but it feels like there's going to be some work out here. China is like in a lot of economic distress. I don't know if you guys have followed much on the stories of the deflationary challenges that China is dealing with. Chinese bonds are trading at a below 2% yield now, which is kind of unprecedented.”
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) equities 67% · n=9 · E209 (2025-01-04) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:20:16 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo
“Really cheap... I tend to agree with a lot of what David said. I think Trump and Xi both want a deal... there are really, really high quality companies, some of them at mid-single digit multiples. [But he keeps a personal 'no-China guideline' since the Longtop fraud.]”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:17:39 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo
“I went with Chinese tech stocks, Chinese tech ETFs... they're trying to line up the great deal with China... cost per kilowatt hour is already lower... these stocks are pretty cheap. I was just looking at Alibaba... poised for a pretty good run in 25 if the macro works out.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg
Friedberg 43%
5 scoring events · 45% of moves
+57.1 / -12.0 → net +45.1
Jason
Jason 49%
3 scoring events · 18% of moves
+12.3 / -14.4 → net -2.1
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker 67% regular guest ×1.0
2 scoring events · 14% of moves
+22.0 → net +22.0
Chamath
Chamath 42%
2 scoring events · 9% of moves
+14.4 → net +14.4
Ben Shapiro
Ben Shapiro 30% regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 4% of moves
+0.0 / -6.0 → net -6.0
PH
Phil Deutch guest ×0.5
1 scoring event · 4% of moves
+0.0 / -6.0 → net -6.0
Mark Pincus
Mark Pincus guest ×0.5
1 scoring event · 3% of moves
+4.7 → net +4.7
Travis Kalanick
Travis Kalanick regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 2% of moves
+3.7 → net +3.7

⏳ decay drained -61.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E209 2025-01-04 init +40.0 40.0 E209 born by Friedberg (annual_prediction x2)
E209 2025-01-04 reinforce +10.8 50.8 E209 Gavin Baker support x1 (new voice)
E210 2025-01-11 decay -2.0 48.8 E210 silent
E211 2025-01-18 reinforce +9.2 58.0 E211 Friedberg support x3
E211 2025-01-18 reinforce +7.6 65.6 E211 Jason support x1 (new voice)
E211 2025-01-18 reinforce +4.7 70.2 E211 Mark Pincus support x3 (new voice) [w=0.50]
E212 2025-01-25 decay -2.8 67.4 E212 silent
E213 2025-01-31 reinforce +3.7 71.1 E213 Travis Kalanick support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50]
E214 2025-02-07 decay -2.8 68.2 E214 silent
E215 2025-02-15 reinforce +3.8 72.0 E215 Friedberg support x1
E216 2025-02-21 decay -2.9 69.2 E216 silent
E217 2025-03-01 decay -2.8 66.4 E217 silent
E218 2025-03-08 reinforce +7.6 73.9 E218 Chamath support x2 (new voice)
E219 2025-03-15 decay -3.0 71.0 E219 silent
E220 2025-03-22 decay -2.8 68.2 E220 silent
E221 2025-03-29 reinforce +4.8 72.9 E221 Jason support x2
E222 2025-04-05 reinforce +4.1 77.0 E222 Friedberg support x2
E222 2025-04-05 oppose -6.0 71.0 E222 Ben Shapiro opposes x2 [w=0.50]
E222 2025-04-05 oppose -14.4 56.6 E222 Jason opposes x3
E223 2025-04-11 decay -2.3 54.3 E223 silent
E224 2025-04-19 reinforce +6.9 61.2 E224 Chamath support x2
E225 2025-04-26 decay -2.4 58.7 E225 silent
E226 2025-05-02 decay -2.3 56.4 E226 silent
E227 2025-05-09 decay -2.3 54.1 E227 silent
E228 2025-05-17 decay -2.2 52.0 E228 silent
E229 2025-05-24 decay -2.1 49.9 E229 silent
E231 2025-06-13 decay -2.0 47.9 E231 silent
E232 2025-06-21 decay -1.9 46.0 E232 silent
E233 2025-06-28 decay -1.8 44.1 E233 silent
E234 2025-07-04 decay -1.8 42.4 E234 silent
E235 2025-07-11 decay -1.7 40.7 E235 silent
E236 2025-07-19 decay -1.6 39.0 E236 silent
E237 2025-08-01 decay -1.6 37.5 E237 silent
E238 2025-08-09 oppose -12.0 25.5 E238 Friedberg opposes x2
E238 2025-08-09 reinforce +11.2 36.7 E238 Gavin Baker support x2
E238 2025-08-09 oppose -6.0 30.7 E238 Phil Deutch opposes x2 [w=0.50]
E239 2025-08-15 decay -1.2 29.4 E239 silent
E240 2025-08-22 decay -1.2 28.3 E240 silent
E241 2025-08-29 decay -1.1 27.1 E241 silent
E242 2025-09-07 decay -1.1 26.0 E242 silent
E243 2025-09-19 decay -1.0 25.0 E243 silent
E244 2025-09-27 decay -1.0 24.0 E244 silent
E245 2025-10-03 decay -1.0 23.0 E245 silent
E246 2025-10-10 decay -0.9 22.1 E246 silent
E247 2025-10-17 decay -0.9 21.2 E247 silent
E248 2025-10-24 decay -0.8 20.4 E248 silent
E249 2025-10-31 decay -0.8 19.6 E249 silent
E250 2025-11-07 decay -0.8 18.8 E250 silent
E251 2025-11-14 decay -0.8 18.0 E251 silent
E252 2025-11-22 decay -0.7 17.3 E252 silent
E253 2025-12-06 decay -0.7 16.6 E253 silent
E254 2025-12-13 decay -0.7 16.0 E254 silent
E255 2025-12-19 decay -0.6 15.3 E255 silent
E256 2025-12-31 decay -0.6 14.7 E256 silent