🌍 The debasement trade: USD is 2026's worst asset

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E257 (2026-01-10) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:11:52 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“we're going to add $2 trillion in debt this year, ... it's going to be harder and harder for the dollar. ... which we see in people moving to gold and silver and perhaps copper.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E259 (2026-01-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:10:51 SUPPORT

“Eventually the bill comes to you. And in the United States, the bill is coming to you... for the first time in history... gold [is] eclipsing US treasuries [in central-bank holdings]... the dollar index has declined from about 109 down to 96... if you look at the stock market relative to gold, it's actually down... an incremental annual cost to service the debt of roughly $700 billion a year.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E261 (2026-02-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 42:23 SUPPORT

“You got to find ways of hedging and owning real durable assets because the underlying currency... will fluctuate wildly and just fall off of a cliff... we probably see things like gold do much, much better over time because people will be afraid about the durability of their dollar-denominated resources.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) macro: 2 resolved, unproven · E274 (2026-05-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:29:54 OPPOSE

“I don't think a dollar crisis is around the ... the Bundesbank was still in charge and you had the Deutschmark, ... what is globally a bad neighborhood of high debt levels. And we have AI in our corner, and we have energy self-sufficiency.”