🤖 AI-designed open-source gene editors break the CRISPR patent toll
ProFluent Bio trained a protein language model on 26 trillion bases and generated OpenCRISPR-1, a Cas protein 400 mutations from anything in nature that outperforms Cas9 and was released under an open-source licence. Friedberg's read: AI can now design around the Broad/MIT/Berkeley CRISPR patent estate, so the core editing toolkit goes free and ubiquitous the way Linux and HTML5 replaced paid stacks, the royalty and licence friction stops gating startups, and the value in gene editing accrues to applications across human health, agriculture and industrial biotech rather than to the tool IP.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 55.6 WATCH
EMBER
band · contested
▲ LONG ARKG
expression · bullish tech
MISS
outcome · R -9.5% · α -21.7%
2025-05-03
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-05-03 → 2025-05-03 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ARKG (primary play). ARKG fell 9.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -9.5% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +12.3% → α = -9.5 − (+12.3) = -21.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Jason | opposed: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-05-03)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ARKG | etf | PRIMARY | broad genomics and gene-editing basket; free, unencumbered, AI-designed editors lower the cost and legal friction of every application in it |
| ▲ LONG | CRSP | stock | adjacent | largest listed gene-editing pure-play; cheaper patent-free Cas proteins with fewer off-target effects expand pipeline economics |
| ▲ LONG | NTLA | stock | adjacent | in-vivo editing pure-play whose programs are directly levered to editor efficiency and off-target improvement |
| ▲ LONG | RXRX | stock | adjacent | closest listed proxy for AI-designed biology as a discovery method |
Mention log
Friedberg
tech w=1.08 · n=65
· E177 (2024-05-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:08:25
SUPPORT
“There's a simple truth to all this, which is every single life sciences lab on Earth is using this technology today. It has absolutely revolutionized life sciences. It has changed everything. It has reset the trajectory of human health, of agriculture, and of industrial biotechnology.”
PA
Patrick Collison
(guest ×0.5)
no tech track record
· E216 (2025-02-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:07:23
SUPPORT
· horizon 24mo
“I don't know if you analogize Evo 2 to, I don't know whether it's GPD 2 or 3 or something, but I think we're going to see a similar Cambrian explosion of applications over the next couple of years.”
Friedberg
tech w=1.08 · n=65
· E216 (2025-02-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:11:55
SUPPORT
“we talk a lot about the idea that you can use a computer, state the phenotype or the physical characteristics you want in a biological organism and have the software resolve the whole genome, all the DNA needed to make that physical organism real.”
Chamath
tech w=0.90 · n=83
· E216 (2025-02-21) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 1:18:04
OPPOSE
“The biological models are different in that I think it's a much smaller population of people that will use it. I think they do have to figure out how to take these models and complement the existing pipeline they have. The pipeline they have right now I think is pretty brittle.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -52.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E177 2024-05-03 | init | +45.2 | 45.2 | E177 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.08] |
| E177 2024-05-03 | reinforce | +10.4 | 55.6 | E177 Jason support x1 (new voice) [w=1.05] |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -2.2 | 53.4 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -2.1 | 51.3 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -2.1 | 49.2 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -2.0 | 47.2 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.9 | 45.3 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.8 | 43.5 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.7 | 41.8 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.7 | 40.1 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.6 | 38.5 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.5 | 37.0 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.5 | 35.5 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.4 | 34.1 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.4 | 32.7 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.3 | 31.4 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -1.2 | 27.8 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -1.1 | 26.7 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -1.1 | 25.6 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | reinforce | +9.9 | 21.7 | E216 Patrick Collison support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E216 2025-02-21 | reinforce | +12.6 | 34.4 | E216 Friedberg support x2 [w=1.08] |
| E216 2025-02-21 | oppose | -8.7 | 25.7 | E216 Chamath opposes x1 [w=0.90] |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.9 | 21.8 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E226 silent |