🏛️ Financial deplatforming becomes the next big political fight
PayPal operationalizing ADL/SPLC ban lists into a 'no-buy list' makes fintech account bans the next censorship battleground within a year, drawing congressional and FTC heat and organized political opposition to consumer-fintech M&A.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 62.5 WATCH
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT PYPL
expression · bearish politics-market
RIGHT
result · return +65.9% · vs SPY +71.1%
2022-08-06
born 2021-08-06 (E43) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-08-06 → 2022-08-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT PYPL (primary play). PYPL fell 65.9% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +65.9% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -5.2%
→ vs SPY = +65.9 − (-5.2) = +71.1%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: +60.7% — did PYPL move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 65.9, vs SPY 71.1)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-08-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | PYPL | stock | PRIMARY | Sacks' named target — the company he wants hauled before Congress and blocked from every future acquisition |
| ▼ SHORT | XYZ | stock | adjacent | Block/Square is the next flashpoint in his framing (will Dorsey import the Twitter block list?); SQ is dead in yfinance, XYZ carries the history |
Mention log newest first
Chamath
politics-market 51% · n=95
· E68 (2022-02-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 14:42
SUPPORT
“The idea that you can deep platform one or the other or fire them from their job or prevent them from having access to the money that they've earned or preventing other people from donating money, that's really, it's a really low bar. ... And I think when you normalize this kind of behavior, it's a very slippery slope.”
Sacks
politics-market 48% · n=87
· E68 (2022-02-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 3:00
SUPPORT
“wrote a piece for Barry Weiss' substack talking about how financial de-platforming would be the next wave of online censorship ... What I could not have predicted is that it would occur in our mild-mannered neighbor to the north and that the reprisals would be directed by the government itself, not just a consortium of private actors.”
Sacks
politics-market 48% · n=87
· E66 (2022-02-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 54:24
SUPPORT
“And you know, what was PayPal doing? I wrote a story for Barry Weiss, for her substack about how PayPal was taking the lead in financial deplatforming. They were working with the ADL and the SPLC to kick to identify groups to kick off their platform. So that's what management was spending their cycles on figuring out how not to grow, how to kick people off their platform and trying to figure out how to get more people on it. ... You can waste your management cycles on stuff like that. Now their stock is down 25%.”
Sacks
politics-market 48% · n=87
· E59 (2021-12-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 18:51
SUPPORT
“I wrote a piece called the No Buy List where I basically you had companies like PayPal and some of these other financial firms were starting to deny service to customers, to users based on their political affiliations. ... if this equity auditors tells you, well, look, I don't think it's equitable to allow these conservative groups to, you know, be a user of your product. Well, what's the company going to do? They're going to have to listen to that. ... And that is a plausible scenario, given that it's already occurred.”
Sacks
politics-market 48% · n=87
· E43 (2021-08-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:07:38
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“If you try to deny Americans their right to access the new economy, we see no reason for your company to get any bigger. We're going to oppose every acquisition you ever do. ... I'm predicting right now that financial deplatforming is going to be the big hot potato, political hot potato over the next year. This is the next wave of censorship.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -66.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E43 2021-08-06 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E43 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.7 | 40.3 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.6 | 38.7 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.5 | 37.2 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.5 | 35.7 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.4 | 34.2 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | reinforce | +11.4 | 35.2 | E59 Sacks support x2 |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -1.4 | 33.8 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -1.4 | 32.4 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -1.3 | 31.1 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | reinforce | +13.0 | 40.6 | E66 Sacks support x3 |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -1.6 | 38.9 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | reinforce | +11.0 | 49.9 | E68 Sacks support x3 |
| E68 2022-02-19 | reinforce | +11.3 | 61.2 | E68 Chamath support x2 (new voice) |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -2.4 | 58.8 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -2.4 | 56.4 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -2.3 | 54.1 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -2.2 | 52.0 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -2.1 | 49.9 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | reinforce | +6.0 | 55.9 | E75 Chamath support x1 |
| E75 2022-04-09 | reinforce | +6.6 | 62.5 | E75 Sacks support x2 |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -2.5 | 60.0 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -2.4 | 57.6 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -2.3 | 55.3 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -2.2 | 53.1 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -2.1 | 51.0 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -2.0 | 48.9 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -2.0 | 47.0 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -1.9 | 45.1 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -1.8 | 43.3 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -1.7 | 41.6 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -1.7 | 39.9 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -1.6 | 38.3 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -1.5 | 36.8 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -1.5 | 35.3 | E90 silent |