📈 Premium-IP media rerates - Iger's Disney and Warner's library

The scarce asset in media is the owned IP library, not the streaming subscriber. With Iger back at Disney and HBO/Warner printing hits, the beaten-down legacy studios rerate; Jason is long Disney and Warner and buying more.

0 CONVICTION

peaked 47.7 WATCH

EMBER

band · contested

▲ LONG DIS

expression · bullish equities

PARTIAL

outcome · R +5.7% · α -20.4%

2023-12-24

window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

Window: 2022-12-24 → 2023-12-24 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
The call: ▲ LONG DIS (primary play). DIS rose 5.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +5.7% (the call made money).
Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.1% → α = +5.7 − (+26.1) = -20.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Rule fired:

· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

· MISS — everything else
Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Jason | opposed: Chamath, Sacks

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-12-24)

Plays

expression	symbol	kind	relevance	rationale
▲ LONG	DIS	stock	PRIMARY	Jason's disclosed position and the Iger-return catalyst; 'best IP in the business'
▲ LONG	WBD	stock	adjacent	the Warner/HBO library Friedberg calls a real challenger to Disney, also a Jason position

Mention log

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E109 (2022-12-24) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 1:55:50 SUPPORT

“I'm telling you, Disney, Warner, which you talked about before, and Facebook are three of my big ones.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E109 (2022-12-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 38:16 SUPPORT

“But man, Warner Media has a lot to contend with. And, you know, they could end up being a real challenger to Disney in the years ahead.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E125 (2023-04-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:34:13 OPPOSE

“So look, whether you believe that is a problem or not, what I'm saying is this has been a brand disaster for Disney getting involved with DeSantis this way.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E125 (2023-04-21) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:34:05 SUPPORT

“Really? I trust Disney implicitly.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E137 (2023-07-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 27:02 OPPOSE

“the fact that Disney has been decaying for the past year is more emblematic of the fact that they've gotten into this social culture war and half the population of America said, we're not going to support your business like they did to Bud Light”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E137 (2023-07-14) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 30:09 SUPPORT

“I bought the stock, and it's the one thing in my JTrading portfolio I've gotten crushing on. That and Warner Brothers Discovery. I made two entertainment bets on what I think are the two best companies.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E139 (2023-07-27) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 52:57 SUPPORT

“Right now, I'm going to ride it out. I think their IP collection is amazing.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E142 (2023-08-18) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 12:42 OPPOSE

“you have to question the wisdom of the executives at Disney who, you know, could have left this material alone. They didn't have to go here, but they did decide to go here. They did decide to do a remake and they changed all these things. Why even bother, you know, all you're going to do is ruin the public's perception of the original.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E157 (2023-12-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 32:08 SUPPORT

“Disney is going to launch their own Dolly-type stable diffusion product where you can do this. Put yourself on a Star Wars character.... It doesn't matter if they're good or not, it's their IP.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason w=0.97

5 scoring events · 64% of moves

+82.2 → net +82.2

Sacks w=0.89

2 scoring events · 17% of moves

+0.0 / -21.2 → net -21.2

Friedberg w=0.87

1 scoring event · 10% of moves

+12.7 → net +12.7

Chamath w=0.84

1 scoring event · 9% of moves

+0.0 / -12.1 → net -12.1

⏳ decay drained -38.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episode	kind	Δ	after	note
E109 2022-12-24	init	+35.0	35.0	E109 born by Jason (positioning x3) [w=0.97]
E109 2022-12-24	reinforce	+12.7	47.7	E109 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.87]
E110 2023-01-06	decay	-1.9	45.7	E110 silent
E111 2023-01-13	decay	-1.8	43.9	E111 silent
E112 2023-01-20	decay	-1.8	42.2	E112 silent
E113 2023-01-27	decay	-1.7	40.5	E113 silent
E114 2023-02-04	decay	-1.6	38.9	E114 silent
E115 2023-02-11	decay	-1.6	37.3	E115 silent
E116 2023-02-17	decay	-1.5	35.8	E116 silent
E118 2023-03-03	decay	-1.4	34.4	E118 silent
E119 2023-03-11	decay	-1.4	33.0	E119 silent
E120 2023-03-17	decay	-1.3	31.7	E120 silent
E121 2023-03-24	decay	-1.3	30.4	E121 silent
E122 2023-03-31	decay	-1.2	29.2	E122 silent
E123 2023-04-07	decay	-1.2	28.0	E123 silent
E124 2023-04-14	decay	-1.1	26.9	E124 silent
E125 2023-04-21	reinforce	+8.5	35.4	E125 Jason support x1 [w=0.97]
E125 2023-04-21	oppose	-10.6	24.8	E125 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.89]
E126 2023-04-28	decay	-1.0	23.8	E126 silent
E128 2023-05-12	decay	-1.0	22.9	E128 silent
E129 2023-05-19	decay	-0.9	21.9	E129 silent
E130 2023-05-26	decay	-0.9	21.1	E130 silent
E131 2023-06-02	decay	-0.8	20.2	E131 silent
E132 2023-06-10	decay	-0.8	19.4	E132 silent
E133 2023-06-16	decay	-0.8	18.6	E133 silent
E134 2023-06-24	decay	-0.7	17.9	E134 silent
E135 2023-07-01	decay	-0.7	17.2	E135 silent
E136 2023-07-09	decay	-0.7	16.5	E136 silent
E137 2023-07-14	oppose	-12.1	4.4	E137 Chamath opposes x3 [w=0.84]
E137 2023-07-14	reinforce	+13.9	18.4	E137 Jason support x2 [w=0.97]
E139 2023-07-27	reinforce	+11.9	30.3	E139 Jason support x2 [w=0.97]
E140 2023-08-04	decay	-1.2	29.0	E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11	decay	-1.2	27.9	E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18	oppose	-10.6	17.3	E142 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.89]
E143 2023-08-25	decay	-0.7	16.6	E143 silent
E144 2023-09-01	decay	-0.7	15.9	E144 silent
E146 2023-09-22	decay	-0.6	15.3	E146 silent
E147 2023-09-29	decay	-0.6	14.7	E147 silent
E148 2023-10-07	decay	-0.6	14.1	E148 silent
E149 2023-10-13	decay	-0.6	13.5	E149 silent
E150 2023-10-20	decay	-0.5	13.0	E150 silent
E151 2023-10-27	decay	-0.5	12.4	E151 silent
E152 2023-11-03	decay	-0.5	11.9	E152 silent
E156 2023-12-08	decay	-0.5	11.5	E156 silent
E157 2023-12-16	reinforce	+12.9	24.4	E157 Jason support x2 [w=0.97]
E158 2023-12-23	decay	-1.0	23.4	E158 silent