United States Oil Fund, LP

Chamath oppose ×1 ▼ on 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 E276 · 2026-06-13 ▶ 1:08:57

China has been smoothing the energy consumption globally ... we've kind of kept a damper on $200 a barrel oil. In fact, we're sub $100. ... If China somehow runs out of reserves and they need to go back into the spot market and buy an extra 3 million barrels a day, there's a very big risk that oil gets into the well past 100, and maybe between 150 and 200 a barrel.

Brad Gerstner support ×1 ▼ on 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 E264 · 2026-03-13 ▶ 6:14

My suspicion is that these impacts are shorter duration... The United States produces 20 million barrels of oil a day and we consume 20 million barrels a day. This is a modest problem for the United States.

Chamath support ×1 ▼ on 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 E264 · 2026-03-13 ▶ 8:21

The market literally took oil from $120 a barrel to $90 a barrel, almost in, ... there is no path to a sustained conflict. ... a coordinated release of about 400 million barrels

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🛢️ Hydrocarbons melt: oil sees $45 before $65 E257 · 2026-01-10 ▶ 1:11:04

the trend in oil is inexorable, and it's down. ... on a per-barrel basis, I think it's more likely to see $45 than $65.

Chamath reversal ×3 ▲ on ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 30:39

It double and triples down the ability to monetize oil and start to invest those returns in future projects that have a much better ROI. All of that leads to cheaper energy.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 19:14

I don't think the Israelis are going to sit by quietly and allow this Iranian regime to continue to go out and build up a military that's constantly shouting death to Israel, death to the USA. And I think that they've taken their first shot and I don't think it's their last.

Sacks oppose ×1 ▲ on ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 11:37

President Trump accomplished that. We're not in a forever war. We're not in a war with Iran.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ An Iran engagement escalates, doubles oil and derails the agenda E231 · 2025-06-13 ▶ 1:34:37

I mean, you could see oil double, double. What happens to the economy of the world, of world GDP, of everything, of inflation. If you have oil at 100 bucks a barrel, 112 bucks a barrel, it's not good.

Their conventional weapons are fearsome and could do great damage to our allies, to Israel and to American assets in that area and also to energy production in countries that we rely on. So I think the downsides are really kind of overwhelming. I think a protracted, meaning anything over a day or two engagement with Iran would derail the Trump agenda and the presidency.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ Ukraine's position is unsustainable - the front collapses next year E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 48:16

It's not a stalemate. Remember, I said on this podcast six months or a year ago that it was no longer a stalemate. It was a war of attrition in which the Ukrainians were now losing. And every single month now the Russians are taking more and more territory.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 54:35

Does Putin not see that in a couple of weeks, a couple of months, there will be new leadership in the White House and there's going to be a path to a resolution here?

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 53:07

but we're talking about tens and hundreds of billions of dollars that we're giving on top of the risk of nuclear escalation. I just think it's absolutely crazy.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 48:16

The bottom line is this war is escalating, it's escalating nowhere good and at some point soon, we're going to have to get off of this escalatory ladder or we're going to end up in a really disastrous place.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E197 · 2024-09-27 ▶ 1:33:37

Chamath, you're right. I mean, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, all of America was huddled around their TV sets worried about what would happen. There is no similar concern in this day and age about the escalatory wars that are happening.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E197 · 2024-09-27 ▶ 1:32:35

But we are fighting a potential nuclear threat on three fronts. How have we allowed this to happen? Russia, Iran, China.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ Ukraine's position is unsustainable - the front collapses next year E197 · 2024-09-27 ▶ 1:26:15

And it's very clear, I think that Ukraine, within, it could be in the next month, it could be the next two months, it could be the next six months, I think they're eventually going to collapse.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on ⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock E197 · 2024-09-27 ▶ 1:21:12

And I really do agree with you, Friedberg, there is a non-trivially high probability, the highest it's ever been, that we are just bumbling and sleepwalking into a really bad situation we can't walk back from.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on ⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock E197 · 2024-09-27 ▶ 1:26:15

And if Hezbollah and Israel are in a full scale war with ground forces, it could be very easy for Iran to get pulled into it on Hezbollah's side. And if that happens, I think it's just inevitable that the United States will be pulled into this war.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on ⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock E197 · 2024-09-27 ▶ 1:20:46

I think there's going to be a big war. I think by the time the show airs, Israel's incursion into Lebanon is going to get bigger. It's going to escalate. And by next week, we could be in a full blown multinational war in the Middle East.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ Ukraine's position is unsustainable - the front collapses next year E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 1:34:11

What we're on track for is, at some point, probably next year, Ukraine is going to collapse.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on ⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock E190 · 2024-08-02 ▶ 58:01

which could mean an increased escalation in conflict. And that's, I think, a real kind of point of concern. And that's the one of the black swan events I think that's still outstanding right now.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on ⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock E190 · 2024-08-02 ▶ 1:01:59

If you were to place odds on this, I'd say it's at least 50-50 that things escalate into a regional war.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E186 · 2024-07-04 ▶ 22:14

Biden actually approved private contractors now going into Ukraine and starting to fight. Americans will be on the battlefield as of I think this was just a few days ago.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ US-Russia proxy war escalates horizontally E186 · 2024-07-04 ▶ 21:02

The Russians in response to that said we are no longer in a state of peace with the United States. They did not say we're in a state of war, but they said we're no longer in a state of peace. And the Russians have indicated that they may escalate horizontally by giving advanced weapons to our enemies. For example, they've talked about giving cruise missiles to the hoodies.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on ⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock E184 · 2024-06-20 ▶ 59:18

We have an adversary now with a quarter of a trillion dollars of excess cash who has no incentive to negotiate.