State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF

Sacks oppose ×1 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:06:40

obviously the 3% number is way ahead of expectations. It's a fantastic number. It just feels like everything is humming on all cylinders here.

Jason oppose ×1 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 8:16

There's a lot of spending in there, as we've talked about here, putting that aside, it feels like the economy is in really great shape.

Chamath oppose ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E231 · 2025-06-13 ▶ 59:25

And what I was noticing was that we were going to come in, I said, in the low threes. And I think, you know, if Atlanta Fed is right, I don't think they are, but I think it's going to be in the low to mid threes. It's going to be meaningfully greater than what people are expecting.

on the hard data, the part that's most surprising is that consumers have very weak sentiment, but in the meantime, consumer spending is remarkably resilient.

And it's a really important point also that we should mention, is that the last four years, the economy has looked OK. But part of that is because government's been hiring like mad.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E217 · 2025-03-01 ▶ 1:07:46

I am surprised that we don't see even more dramatic revisions. And that probably again is like errors on top of errors. I really don't trust, like, you know, you showed the GDP data or you showed the unemployment rate, Jason?

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E216 · 2025-02-21 ▶ 15:19

One of the big things that we've talked about is how many backward revisions there are to everything from non-farm payrolls to GDP, that they've become so unreliable.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E205 · 2024-11-23 ▶ 14:58

And we talked about this before, where this is also a problem at the federal level when you look at GDP and job growth, because it looks like a lot of these jobs are actually fake, manufactured, government-type jobs.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 The 50bp kickoff cut means the Fed sees real pressure - earnings and asset values contract E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 9:03

that actually maps to a lot of this intuition that I have had over the last few months when I've said I think we're in a low-key recession

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 7:06

I do think that that's one big turnaround that's happened in the last 90 days, which is really, I think, a big surprise to a lot of folks is just how robust things are

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 11:44

So just to be clear about what's happening, 85% of this quarter's GDP was induced by the government.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 The 50bp kickoff cut means the Fed sees real pressure - earnings and asset values contract E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 43:03

at some point here equities are probably going to be cheaper before they're going to get more expensive

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 The 50bp kickoff cut means the Fed sees real pressure - earnings and asset values contract E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 14:41

this is less about the election and more about the markets not liking the Fed's rate cut on September 18th

Sacks support ×1 ▼ on 🌍 The 50bp kickoff cut means the Fed sees real pressure - earnings and asset values contract E196 · 2024-09-20 ▶ 11:22

So Powell's rhetoric is in a way at odds with the magnitude of this cut. So why didn't they just cut 25 basis points?

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 The 50bp kickoff cut means the Fed sees real pressure - earnings and asset values contract E196 · 2024-09-20 ▶ 12:31

I think that the smart financial actors are guessing recession or guessing contraction. I think what they're also guessing is similar to non-farm payrolls. We're going to go through a couple of difficult GDP revisions, probably downward.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 Airbnb re-rates from tech multiple to consumer cyclical E195 · 2024-09-06 ▶ 26:03

It's telling you that the people that own it have realized that it's less of a technology business and it's more of a cyclical business that ebbs and flows with the ability to spend money on behalf of the consumer.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E193 · 2024-08-23 ▶ 6:47

Yeah, I mean, I think the economy is a lot slower than what people thought

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E193 · 2024-08-23 ▶ 3:46

I predicted this would happen, and I didn't know exactly how we would get the correction, but now it's come out. By the way, it's not just this 818,000 jobs. If you look at the last 12 months and out of all the restatements, it's been something like 1.2 million.

Sacks reversal ×2 ▼ on 🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable E159 · 2023-12-29 ▶ 1:19:16

one of the biggest surprises of 2023 is that we didn't have a recession. I mean, I think most people were betting on a recession in 23 They thought that a soft landing would be almost impossible.

Sacks oppose ×1 ▼ on 🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable E156 · 2023-12-08 ▶ 29:08

maybe the overall economic data right now is mixed to positive. I'll certainly concede that.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable E156 · 2023-12-08 ▶ 25:46

That is Federal Reserve data that tells the truth about the US economy. And it turns out that the economy is pretty good and doing a lot for a lot of people.

Jason reversal ×2 ▼ on 🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable E156 · 2023-12-08 ▶ 31:15

The GDP is 5% or something like that and unemployment is low. So the economy is actually doing extraordinary. That's just the fact.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable E151 · 2023-10-27 ▶ 1:07:27

everybody's going to wake up with a heck of a credit card bill at 15 or 20 percent, and they're not going to be able to pay it

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable E151 · 2023-10-27 ▶ 1:05:07

at some point, the consumer realizes that they're just not as wealthy as they thought they were ... you just wonder if the consumer is like Wiley Coyote and has gone off a cliff but just hasn't looked down yet

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 The US consumer taps out in 2023 — recession unavoidable E146 · 2023-09-22 ▶ 1:25:21

some of these industries where you have these large ticket purchases that drive consumer consumption, their backs are against the wall ... I do think that you're going to just have a little bit of belt tightening in the consumer.