📈 The IPO cohort outperforms the S&P after listing
Newly public quality companies beat the index post-IPO — the Goldman study of 4,500 IPOs shows the IPO cohort as an index outperforming by 10-15 points, so holding rather than distributing at the lockup is the right call.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 38.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG IPO
expression · bullish equities
WRONG
result · return -52.5% · vs SPY -41.8%
2022-07-03
born 2021-07-03 (E38) → window closed
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: 2026 is the year of mega-IPOs 43 (IPO)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-07-03 → 2022-07-03 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG IPO (primary play). IPO fell 52.5% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -52.5% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -10.7% → vs SPY = -52.5 − (-10.7) = -41.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-03)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Sacks
equities 44% · n=96
· E38 (2021-07-03) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 27:08
SUPPORT
“Well, look at Square. Look at Square. I mean, Square had all like most of the appreciation happened in the public markets. I think Sequoia held on to their Square shares, did way, way, way better because nobody sold effectively for several years.”
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E38 (2021-07-03) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 26:12
SUPPORT
“But that they basically highlighted that IPOs as an index generally outperform the market over some period of time, whether it's one year or three years. And so if you have access to those IPO shares, assume you're a venture investor, you can beat the S&P by 10, 15 points, just generally without having any thought about the business itself or the company itself.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -31.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E38 2021-07-03 | init | +20.0 | 20.0 | E38 born by Friedberg (sentiment x2) |
| E38 2021-07-03 | reinforce | +18.0 | 38.0 | E38 Sacks support x2 (new voice) |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.5 | 36.5 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.5 | 35.0 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.2 | 28.6 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.1 | 25.3 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.0 | 24.3 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.9 | 22.4 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.9 | 21.5 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E85 silent |