⚡ The 2024 black swan is a wider Middle East war and an oil shock

Sacks energy w=0.94 · n=16 · E158 (2023-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 23:30 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“So I think this has the potential to be a black swan in 2024, meaning that somehow the Israel-Hamas war spirals into a larger regional war that pulls the US in. ... And I think that if that does happen, there could be the potential for an oil shock.”

Ryan Petersen (regular guest ×1.0) energy: 1 resolved, unproven · E158 (2023-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 12:03 OPPOSE

“the Suez Canal is too valuable, in my opinion, too valuable to civilization, to the modern world, to believe that a group of rebels, no matter how well-funded they may be, is gonna be able to disrupt that for any long period of time.”

Sacks energy w=0.94 · n=16 · E163 (2024-01-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 5:50 SUPPORT

“I still think we get an oil shock in the Middle East. If this situation broadens into a larger regional war, maybe with Iran, you could get a shock in the price of oil”

Sacks energy w=0.94 · n=16 · E164 (2024-02-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:18:54 SUPPORT

“Depending on the action they choose, we could very rapidly find ourselves engaged in a wider regional war on five different fronts. I mean, a war with Iran would involve us in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen where we're already bombing. So this could turn into a huge conflagration in the Middle East.”

Donald Trump (guest ×0.5) no energy track record · E184 (2024-06-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 27:14 SUPPORT · horizon 3mo

“And within 90 days or so, they're going to have and could have very well a nuclear weapon.”

Friedberg energy w=0.78 · n=18 · E184 (2024-06-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 59:18 SUPPORT

“We have an adversary now with a quarter of a trillion dollars of excess cash who has no incentive to negotiate.”

Sacks energy w=0.94 · n=16 · E190 (2024-08-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:01:59 SUPPORT

“If you were to place odds on this, I'd say it's at least 50-50 that things escalate into a regional war.”

Friedberg energy w=0.78 · n=18 · E190 (2024-08-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 58:01 SUPPORT

“which could mean an increased escalation in conflict. And that's, I think, a real kind of point of concern. And that's the one of the black swan events I think that's still outstanding right now.”

Friedberg energy w=0.78 · n=18 · E197 (2024-09-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:20:46 SUPPORT · horizon 1mo

“I think there's going to be a big war. I think by the time the show airs, Israel's incursion into Lebanon is going to get bigger. It's going to escalate. And by next week, we could be in a full blown multinational war in the Middle East.”

Sacks energy w=0.94 · n=16 · E197 (2024-09-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:26:15 SUPPORT

“And if Hezbollah and Israel are in a full scale war with ground forces, it could be very easy for Iran to get pulled into it on Hezbollah's side. And if that happens, I think it's just inevitable that the United States will be pulled into this war.”

Chamath energy w=0.55 · n=22 · E197 (2024-09-27) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 1:21:12 SUPPORT

“And I really do agree with you, Friedberg, there is a non-trivially high probability, the highest it's ever been, that we are just bumbling and sleepwalking into a really bad situation we can't walk back from.”