📈 Airbnb beats the airlines as a travel spread
Jason's proposed pair trade: Airbnb is a high-margin, well-run, still-growing travel platform while the airlines are low-margin and badly run, so long ABNB against short airlines should pay out over the coming year. Chamath rejects it on the merits - the two legs sit in different capital pools with different owners and are not correlated enough to net out market risk, so it is 'getting cute' rather than hedging. Only the long leg is listed as a play so the scorer reads the direction Jason argued.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 34.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG ABNB
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -52.0% · α -33.5%
2022-11-06
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ABNB (primary play). ABNB fell 52.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -52.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -18.5% → α = -52.0 − (-18.5) = -33.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Jason | opposed: Chamath, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-11-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ABNB | stock | PRIMARY | the long leg Jason names; the 'incredible margin business that's incredibly well run and growing'. The airline short leg (JETS) is deliberately NOT listed as a play - evaluate.py would read an adjacent play with the idea's own bullish sign and produce a backwards proxy-sensitivity note |
Mention log
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E54 (2021-11-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 15:35
SUPPORT
“I just came up with one. What about Airbnb versus the airlines? ... Well, tell me why Airbnb, which is an incredible margin business that's incredibly well run and growing, versus airlines, which are horribly run, and low margin, why wouldn't that be a good spread trade?”
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E54 (2021-11-06) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 15:40
OPPOSE
“You're talking about smaller, rinky dink ideas. ... No, that's a stupid idea, and I'll tell you why. If you're going to put these things on, go to where the deepest liquid markets are, because those are the safest. ... They're completely different businesses with completely different motivations, with different capital pools, with different people that own the stock. There's no point trying to get cute on these things.”
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E103 (2022-11-05) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 53:00
SUPPORT
“I mean, look at Airbnb as an example. I mean, they did this ginormous riff during COVID because they had no choice. I mean, their revenue went essentially to zero. And now the business is incredibly strong. It's throwing off massive amounts of free cash flow. And the stock market seems to really love what Airbnb has done.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -20.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E54 2021-11-06 | init | +34.0 | 34.0 | E54 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.97] |
| E54 2021-11-06 | oppose | -10.1 | 23.9 | E54 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.84] |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.4 | 9.8 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.3 | 6.5 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.2 | 6.0 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.2 | 4.3 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.2 | 4.1 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | reinforce | +14.0 | 17.7 | E103 Jason support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E103 2022-11-05 | oppose | -10.6 | 7.1 | E103 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.89] |