🌍 Contrarian: a mainline bank reserve crisis in 2025 (long CDS)
Total Pax-Americana indebtedness at ~5% rates equals the pain of 10% rates a generation ago; a mark-to-market or credit-default shock triggers a reserve issue at a major bank — low probability, huge asymmetry, expressed as long CDS ('92 times out of 100 this goes to zero').
0
CONVICTION
peaked 41.7 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT XLF
expression · bearish macro
MISS
outcome · R -15.0% · α -31.1%
2026-01-04
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT XLF (primary play). XLF rose 15.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -15.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1%
→ α = -15.0 − (+16.1) = -31.1%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +1.1% — did XLF move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-04)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | XLF | etf | PRIMARY | mainline-bank proxy — CDS itself is not ETF-tradeable; direction scores if financials crack |
Mention log
Chamath
macro w=1.06 · n=47
· E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 1
▶ 1:00:44
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“I think you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major mainline banks... 5% rates today on $70 trillion is equivalent to 10% rates 25 or 30 years ago... I would be long CDS... 92 times out of 100 this goes to absolute zero... I hope I'm completely wrong. [Explicitly framed as low-probability insurance.]”
Chamath
macro w=1.06 · n=47
· E222 (2025-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:45:30
SUPPORT
“The problem with that is that there's a lot of companies that have debt covenants tied to revenue and EBITDA. And so this is what I spoke about at the beginning of January, which is the one risk that is uncontrollable is what happens to corporate debt. And could we see a wave of defaults and a wave of action?”
Chamath
macro w=1.06 · n=47
· E227 (2025-05-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 17:11
SUPPORT
“when you look back historically around these subprime lenders, whenever these guys start to see price to books, just start to escalate and get to pies, it tends to portend a liquidity crisis. It tends to show that things are about to roll over.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -47.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E209 2025-01-04 | init | +34.0 | 34.0 | E209 born by Chamath (annual_prediction x1) [w=1.06] |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -1.4 | 32.7 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -1.3 | 31.4 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -1.2 | 27.8 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -1.1 | 25.6 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | reinforce | +15.2 | 36.0 | E222 Chamath support x3 [w=1.06] |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -1.4 | 34.6 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -1.4 | 33.2 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | reinforce | +11.1 | 41.7 | E227 Chamath support x2 [w=1.06] |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -1.7 | 40.0 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -1.5 | 35.4 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E256 silent |