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Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated E169 · 2024-03-08 ▶ 1:24:30

I think the real question is, in the last couple of years, have we really seen a change in Bitcoin being used for transactions or for commerce in any meaningful way? I think the answer is still likely not.

Chamath reversal ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated E169 · 2024-03-08 ▶ 1:22:26

So I think it's been a very big year, and I think that psychologically, it's proven a lot of folks wrong, and it's a setup for something really constructive.

Jason oppose ×1 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated E137 · 2023-07-14 ▶ 1:01:17

With this Ripple ruling, I think this becomes a boon for people to say, well, the scarcity of Bitcoin and Bitcoin's stability

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 51:22

if Bitcoin or crypto assets in general were truly a legitimate off ramp and salvation from US dollar hegemony and all of this stuff, why isn't Bitcoin at least at $35,000 a coin right now? It's barely above $28,000. It really hasn't moved that much.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 38:47

We have a real problem if Bitcoin is the exit ramp for an inflationary crisis because it's not accessible enough. It's not easily transactable.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 35:31

Do I think that we're going to have a million dollar Bitcoin in 90 days? I personally find that very unlikely, but you can't say yet.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 32:43

So he's betting $2 million in total on Bitcoin hitting $1 million by June 17th, which there's probably no chance of that happening. A very tiny chance.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated E119 · 2023-03-11 ▶ 1:20:20

this is the reason for that, Chamath, is just that what we've seen is that liquidity is all correlated. So when people are panicking about the state of their finances and worried about getting access to their cash, the first thing they dump is crypto because it is very liquid.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated E119 · 2023-03-11 ▶ 1:20:08

Nothing can revive the crypto market as we're seeing today. Even in a run on the bank, which is exactly what everybody was afraid of in a Bitcoin world, that thing is down 10%.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E109 · 2022-12-24 ▶ 28:28

I said in 2020, I predicted in 2021, the biggest loser in 2022 would be crypto. By the way, Friedberg, you agreed with me, and we nailed it.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E107 · 2022-12-10 ▶ 1:04:26

a really interesting product of the crypto ecosystem and the model that so many kind of crypto businesses have engaged in over the years, which is if you can fester the belief, then there is a business. If you cannot fester the belief, there is no business. That there isn't a fundamental productivity driver. It's about building a belief system.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E94 · 2022-09-01 ▶ 8:48

So these things are more similar than they are different. Coachella and Burning Man, the same. NFTs and part of the art market, the same. Everybody that runs to you with why it's so different, I would just have a grain of salt and say, you don't need to be different.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E94 · 2022-09-01 ▶ 5:53

And I think the NFTs are really just one more kind of example where this beautiful narrative has formed, the digitization of art. But it is no different than any other form of assets that we tell ourselves a story around.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E94 · 2022-09-01 ▶ 3:55

The floor price of a board ape has now dropped by 53%. If you remember, OpenSea raised $300 million at a $13.3 billion valuation December 2021 in a round led by Kotu and Paradigm. To put that in perspective, that was nine whole months ago. My how the world has changed. Friedberg, what's your take on NFTs and this whole boondoggle?

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E85 · 2022-06-30 ▶ 26:11

just because there's a future technology platform doesn't tell you what the pricing should be. And the price action got decoupled from the level of progress in the space. ... And that's where it just got ahead of itself. That was the tulip part of it.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E85 · 2022-06-30 ▶ 18:52

I mentioned at our predictions episode last year that all of these smaller things are going to get blown out. These quote unquote cryptocurrencies, even though many of them don't really act like a currency. And, you know, maybe Bitcoin itself persists. And it seems to me like that's always going to have good staying power.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E85 · 2022-06-30 ▶ 33:32

But that also has to happen on the crypto markets, in the crypto markets. And if you look at that chart, what it really tells you is that the baseline price of Bitcoin, where things seemed, you know, where rational supply and demand were meeting each other before all these, you know, 5, 10,000, 3500 to 5,000. ... That's still 75% from you.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E84 · 2022-06-24 ▶ 57:36

it's like the.com crash all over again. I mean, basically you had an extremely promising technology. ... the price action got totally decoupled from the level of progress in the space. And people were not valuing these things based on real customers, real usage and real use cases, but it became very speculative.

Jason support ×3 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E84 · 2022-06-24 ▶ 56:07

Bitcoin's price is down 71% from the all-time high, 69K in November of 2021, bottomed out at 17,000 or so on June 18th. Ethereum's price down 78%.

If you deployed two-thirds of your fund into crypto assets with no board seat in the past 12 months, are you going to call Harvard and Penn and say, hey, I need some more right now? I don't think you're going to make that call.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E81 · 2022-05-23 ▶ 10:55

you realize what a mirage we were in that certain assets that had no underlying value, they weren't cars, airline tickets or homes, were also being exacerbated during all of this.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E80 · 2022-05-13 ▶ 1:39:19

Everybody's going to get to flip their NFTs and your board ape is going to become worth a million dollars. Your Bitcoin is going to be a million dollars each. ... This is not reality, folks.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E80 · 2022-05-13 ▶ 11:20

And I'd say, especially with crypto, is with all the other crypto downturns, there were always, you know, the crypto accounts saying hodl or buy the dip or, you know, they had the laser eyes going. I don't see any of that right now.

Jason support ×1 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E68 · 2022-02-19 ▶ 50:16

No governance in crypto is leading to a lot of weird stuff, I can tell you.

Chamath support ×1 ▼ on 🪙 Crypto bubble bursts in 2022 — 90% of projects blow up E68 · 2022-02-19 ▶ 50:14

That's all of crypto now anyways.