📈 Opendoor wins instant home offers - software compounds
Forecasting house price and volatility and then selling the asset at a defined margin of safety is a software problem, Opendoor solved it first (roughly 10% average margin against Zillow's 3%), and like Google against Yahoo those technical gains compound every year into an unassailable head start. Chamath discloses 3-4% personal ownership and Sacks discloses a seed position; both argue Zillow's failure is proof the moat is real rather than proof the category does not work.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 44.1 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG OPEN
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -90.8% · α -72.3%
2022-11-06
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-11-06 → 2022-11-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG OPEN (primary play). OPEN fell 90.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -90.8% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -18.5% → α = -90.8 − (-18.5) = -72.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-11-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | OPEN | stock | PRIMARY | the company both besties own and name as the winner of iBuying; the only pure-play instant-offer instrument still priceable (Redfin was taken out by Rocket in 2025, so RDFN is deliberately not listed) |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E54 (2021-11-06) · positioning · strength 3
▶ 40:24
SUPPORT
“Look, I am one of the largest individual shareholders of that company. I think somewhere between 3% and 4% of the business I own. ... I suspect we will look back and the ability to accurately forecast price and volatility and the ability to sell these assets at a defined margin of safety in a predictable way is something software can solve, and it seems that Open Door is the first. It doesn't necessarily mean it will be the only one, but it has an enormous head start now, and as long as they can keep iterating, those gains will compound. ... I just think this is a wonderful business run by an incredible CEO.”
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E54 (2021-11-06) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 44:36
SUPPORT
“I was a seed investor in Open Door because Ravoy invited me to the seed round, so I'm a little biased here, but I think it's pretty obvious what happened. ... Zillow tried to copy them. The business is much more operationally complicated than they realized. ... That's what frequently happens in a big company, tries to copy a smaller sort of upstart company.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -46.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E54 2021-11-06 | init | +30.1 | 30.1 | E54 born by Chamath (positioning x3) [w=0.84] |
| E54 2021-11-06 | reinforce | +13.9 | 44.1 | E54 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.89] |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.8 | 42.3 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.7 | 40.6 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -1.6 | 39.0 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -1.6 | 37.4 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -1.5 | 35.9 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -1.4 | 34.5 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -1.4 | 33.1 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -1.3 | 31.8 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -1.3 | 30.5 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -1.2 | 29.3 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -1.2 | 28.1 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | reinforce | +14.6 | 31.1 | E80 Jason support x1 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -1.1 | 25.4 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -1.0 | 23.4 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.9 | 20.7 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.6 | 15.6 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.6 | 13.2 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E103 silent |