+0.0
net board stance
what this means
55.84
+0.3% · close 2026-09-08
-2% / -2% / +2%
1m / 3m / 12m
-84%
vs SPY since 2021-09-14
38%
of 52w range · -2.7% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α +9
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on CMF
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 1 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.5, average α +8.8. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +44.6% | +54.1 | 2022-07-09 |
| 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus | ▼ SHORT | primary | PARTIAL | +6.8% | +8.8 | 2023-01-01 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding CMF, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
So I think that, in my opinion, actually, like there's actually this beautiful symmetry where even if taxes are high, your earnings potential is commensurately higher, such that the net that you're left with is the same as if you were in another place where taxes may be zero, but you're just not going to get exposed to the same ways to make money.
There is a hostility toward business that has emerged in California that I think is commensurate and related to the tax rate, but also separate.
There's certainly a calculus going on with Newsom, I believe, in the impact that having higher tax rates would have on what is clearly not just a theoretical, but an actual evidenced exodus from the state of wealthy and high income earners.
No, the great thing is we have a running A-B test, which will show whether this state central planning can work or not. And again, if we refuse to want to listen to the examples of Russia or all of these other countries that have tried this, then so be it. We will know in the next three to five years that these policies actually don't work and actually that it actually accelerates the exact hellscape that they think they're trying to avoid.
This is a state in which you have a disappearing middle class. The middle class has been moving out of the state by the hundreds of thousands. In fact, last year, we had for the first time net migration out of the state.
Mayor Lyndon Breed had a press conference, and she's been tweeting, hey, we have to revitalize, you know, SOMA in San Francisco. That's never going to happen. That's off the table.
they're just not going to be able to hit their debt service coverage ratio. So they will be in default. What that means is, I don't understand how in a place like downtown San Francisco, half the buildings don't end up getting owned by the banks. Well, the banks don't want to own all these buildings, so it's going to be a fire sale. But I don't know who the buyers are going to be.
this is really going to hurt the California tax base, because if you start raising taxes on, you know, California millionaires, more of them are going to leave the state, and then that tax revenue leaves the state. And so it actually hurts the general budget. ... I think we're due for a huge budget shortfall next year because there's going to be no capital gains.
what we're realizing in San Francisco is non-prosecution of criminals, as the DA has undertaken over the past couple of years, leads to really heinous crime and rampant crime. ... But it doesn't mean that the movement is over. It doesn't mean that quote unquote wokeism is over.
And then since then, it's just been snowballing. And San Francisco has basically been sliding into what it's become. Miami just keeps blowing up.
the city has totally degenerated into some sort of dystopian Gotham-like city. ... This is just the beginning of what needs to be done. ... So we have a huge problem that the police department is actually, we have too few of them, we're understaffed.
I'm definitely out of here. If the boss of San Francisco is out of here, I'm definitely out of here. But I have some people, some other people to convince. ... This is the logical result of everything I've been warning about since the beginning of the year. You have prosecutors like Chase Aboudin who have essentially decriminalized theft by refusing to prosecute it.
We walked through Union Square and it was cordoned off with cop cars at every intersection. ... Every single store has had every single window boarded up like it's a hurricane season. ... But like Zara, The Gap, Nike, every single storefront has been boarded up. And then there are security guards outside and you have to make an appointment to go Christmas shopping.
CVS, Walgreens and Target are all closing stores or reducing store hours because they understand the hit to their bottom line.
my position right now is California is going to be on a decade long slide and I'm working for 10 more years. ... So why would I spend 10 years in a place that is on a debt spiral?
And I just don't think this is going to pass because it's not justifiable.
It will kill the California economy. ... So I don't think it's going to pass this year or next year. ... But the fact that they're even putting it on the table is making a lot of people second guess whether California is the place they want to create their businesses.