CMF

iShares California Muni Bond ETF

etf all instruments
+0.0
net board stance what this means
55.84
+0.3% · close 2026-09-08
-2% / -2% / +2%
1m / 3m / 12m
-84%
vs SPY since 2021-09-14
38%
of 52w range · -2.7% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α +9

Where we stand — 0 live ideas

No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Chamath
Chamath w=1.02 politics-market
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E101
+2
pushes up
Jason
Jason w=0.97 equities
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E86
-2
pushes down
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner w=0.86 politics-market guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E101
-2
pushes down
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.87 equities
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E101
-5
pushes down
Sacks
Sacks w=0.97 politics-market
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E94
-6
pushes down

Track record on CMF

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 1 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.5, average α +8.8. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayverdictRαclosed
📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus ▼ SHORT adjacent HIT +44.6% +54.1 2022-07-09
🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus ▼ SHORT primary PARTIAL +6.8% +8.8 2023-01-01

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding CMF, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus E101 · 2022-10-22 ▶ 1:27:33
So I think that, in my opinion, actually, like there's actually this beautiful symmetry where even if taxes are high, your earnings potential is commensurately higher, such that the net that you're left with is the same as if you were in another place where taxes may be zero, but you're just not going to get exposed to the same ways to make money.
Brad Gerstner Brad Gerstner support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus E101 · 2022-10-22 ▶ 1:30:10
There is a hostility toward business that has emerged in California that I think is commensurate and related to the tax rate, but also separate.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus E101 · 2022-10-22 ▶ 1:25:17
There's certainly a calculus going on with Newsom, I believe, in the impact that having higher tax rates would have on what is clearly not just a theoretical, but an actual evidenced exodus from the state of wealthy and high income earners.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus E94 · 2022-09-01 ▶ 1:16:14
No, the great thing is we have a running A-B test, which will show whether this state central planning can work or not. And again, if we refuse to want to listen to the examples of Russia or all of these other countries that have tried this, then so be it. We will know in the next three to five years that these policies actually don't work and actually that it actually accelerates the exact hellscape that they think they're trying to avoid.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus E94 · 2022-09-01 ▶ 32:48
This is a state in which you have a disappearing middle class. The middle class has been moving out of the state by the hundreds of thousands. In fact, last year, we had for the first time net migration out of the state.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▼ on 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus E86 · 2022-07-08 ▶ 11:40
Mayor Lyndon Breed had a press conference, and she's been tweeting, hey, we have to revitalize, you know, SOMA in San Francisco. That's never going to happen. That's off the table.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus E86 · 2022-07-08 ▶ 14:59
they're just not going to be able to hit their debt service coverage ratio. So they will be in default. What that means is, I don't understand how in a place like downtown San Francisco, half the buildings don't end up getting owned by the banks. Well, the banks don't want to own all these buildings, so it's going to be a fire sale. But I don't know who the buyers are going to be.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus E85 · 2022-06-30 ▶ 13:17
this is really going to hurt the California tax base, because if you start raising taxes on, you know, California millionaires, more of them are going to leave the state, and then that tax revenue leaves the state. And so it actually hurts the general budget. ... I think we're due for a huge budget shortfall next year because there's going to be no capital gains.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus E68 · 2022-02-19 ▶ 32:14
what we're realizing in San Francisco is non-prosecution of criminals, as the DA has undertaken over the past couple of years, leads to really heinous crime and rampant crime. ... But it doesn't mean that the movement is over. It doesn't mean that quote unquote wokeism is over.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▼ on 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus E60 · 2021-12-23 ▶ 30:59
And then since then, it's just been snowballing. And San Francisco has basically been sliding into what it's become. Miami just keeps blowing up.
Sacks Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus E59 · 2021-12-17 ▶ 1:17:04
the city has totally degenerated into some sort of dystopian Gotham-like city. ... This is just the beginning of what needs to be done. ... So we have a huge problem that the police department is actually, we have too few of them, we're understaffed.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus E57 · 2021-12-04 ▶ 12:07
I'm definitely out of here. If the boss of San Francisco is out of here, I'm definitely out of here. But I have some people, some other people to convince. ... This is the logical result of everything I've been warning about since the beginning of the year. You have prosecutors like Chase Aboudin who have essentially decriminalized theft by refusing to prosecute it.
Jason Jason support ×3 ▼ on 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus E57 · 2021-12-04 ▶ 57:30
We walked through Union Square and it was cordoned off with cop cars at every intersection. ... Every single store has had every single window boarded up like it's a hurricane season. ... But like Zara, The Gap, Nike, every single storefront has been boarded up. And then there are security guards outside and you have to make an appointment to go Christmas shopping.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus E39 · 2021-07-09 ▶ 49:11
CVS, Walgreens and Target are all closing stores or reducing store hours because they understand the hit to their bottom line.
Jason Jason support ×3 ▼ on 📈 California / San Francisco governance decline drives an exodus E39 · 2021-07-09 ▶ 58:29
my position right now is California is going to be on a decade long slide and I'm working for 10 more years. ... So why would I spend 10 years in a place that is on a debt spiral?
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus E28 · 2021-04-01 ▶ 1:06:37
And I just don't think this is going to pass because it's not justifiable.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ California wealth tax fails to pass — but the proposal alone drives the exodus E28 · 2021-04-01 ▶ 1:03:31
It will kill the California economy. ... So I don't think it's going to pass this year or next year. ... But the fact that they're even putting it on the table is making a lot of people second guess whether California is the place they want to create their businesses.