+0.0
net board stance
what this means
28.1
-0.5% · close 2026-09-08
+5% / +6% / +128%
1m / 3m / 12m
+121%
vs SPY since 2025-03-01
89%
of 52w range · -6.3% off high
2/4
hit rate as primary · α -34
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on WBD
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 2 hit / 1 partial / 1 miss over 4 closed windows — credit 0.62, average α -33.9. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Content is commoditized — streaming margins compress | ▼ SHORT | primary | HIT | +42.3% | +42.6 | 2022-05-31 |
| 📈 Premium-IP media rerates - Iger's Disney and Warner's library | ▲ LONG | adjacent | PARTIAL | +5.7% | -20.4 | 2023-12-24 |
| 🏛️ Defamation litigation wave hits media balance sheets | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | PARTIAL | +5.0% | -16.8 | 2024-04-21 |
| 🏛️ Pharma ad ban plus FCC licence pressure guts broadcast TV | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +90.7% | +75.1 | 2025-11-16 |
| 📈 Hollywood's strikes are a fight over a shrinking pie | ▼ SHORT | primary | HIT | +32.4% | +10.4 | 2024-07-27 |
| 📈 The churn treadmill breaks standalone streaming subscriptions | ▼ SHORT | primary | PARTIAL | +8.0% | -17.4 | 2025-01-19 |
| 📈 Generative video (Veo 3) collapses Hollywood inside a year | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -145.3% | -171.1 | 2026-06-21 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding WBD, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Like V03, which we haven't really spoke about, is going to destroy Hollywood. Like in the next year, like Hollywood is done, I think.
And it just further erodes what's happening. I think if once Bobby puts a nail on the coffin of pharma ads on TV.
And then separately, with Bobby Kennedy's nomination to HHS, one of the things that he has said that he wants to put an end to is the advertising that pharma does on these broadcast stations. If you put these two things together where you deprive these folks of their largest revenue source, and at the same time, they have to sort of like answer for censorship or manipulating content, do you think that that changes the landscape of how all these companies behave in the future, or how do you think that that plays out?
In any event, I think that there's a very strong argument that the broadcasters have not been fair. That's a violation of their licensed requirements and we should be re-evaluating their spectrum, especially because it's not the highest best use spectrum anyway.
And if they lose all that advertising from Pharma, which I think in some of these networks is a third or a half, and that's all networks, that's from Fox to CNN and MSNBC, everybody combined, if they lose advertising from Pharma, it's over. Like those news networks are going to lose half their revenue overnight. That would be a death blow, Chamath, to your question.
It's clearly going to be massive consolidation.
I personally have never seen a B2C subscription business that works. The churn is just too high.
So I suspect that you're just going to see a lot of churn. I don't like this category at all as an investor.
I do think the judgments or the magnitude of the judgments are ridiculous
And they're facing an even bigger lawsuit, a $2.7 billion lawsuit with another election technology company that will happen in 2025 Pension funds are now suing this loathsome company because they lost so much money for them.
Disney is going to launch their own Dolly-type stable diffusion product where you can do this. Put yourself on a Star Wars character.... It doesn't matter if they're good or not, it's their IP.
you have to question the wisdom of the executives at Disney who, you know, could have left this material alone. They didn't have to go here, but they did decide to go here. They did decide to do a remake and they changed all these things. Why even bother, you know, all you're going to do is ruin the public's perception of the original.
Right now, I'm going to ride it out. I think their IP collection is amazing.
I think this is one of the fundamental things that the unions and Hollywood have not yet grok-ed completely, which is they're not fighting each other. They're fighting TikTok, YouTube, podcasts, and people making their own content.
Well, both the beer industry and Hollywood are both the shrinking industries. And so when you got unions demanding more and more and more of a shrinking pie, something is going to break.
You guys saw the latest Disney earnings release and Eiger said, we are going to consider selling Nat Geo and a bunch of other channels. There may actually be a spinoff because content creation for that mid tier or that tail no longer makes sense.
And then my second thought is like, I just think unions in general are probably not a very effective way to get these concessions anymore versus the tax that the union members pay.
I bought the stock, and it's the one thing in my JTrading portfolio I've gotten crushing on. That and Warner Brothers Discovery. I made two entertainment bets on what I think are the two best companies.
the fact that Disney has been decaying for the past year is more emblematic of the fact that they've gotten into this social culture war and half the population of America said, we're not going to support your business like they did to Bud Light
Really? I trust Disney implicitly.
So look, whether you believe that is a problem or not, what I'm saying is this has been a brand disaster for Disney getting involved with DeSantis this way.
I think there's an interesting question here on how far this goes with respected, maybe it invites the lawsuits, like you guys say, where there's things that are more on the line.
look, I hope Chamath is right that this actually incentivizes more actions against media companies because I think their feet need to be held to the fire and they need to do a better job publishing the truth.
This is going to embolden a lot of people to take matters into their own hands and sue some of these media companies if the lie is egregious enough, and it negatively impacts them enough. I think it would embolden a lot of folks.
But man, Warner Media has a lot to contend with. And, you know, they could end up being a real challenger to Disney in the years ahead.