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🤖 Apple relocates US-bound iPhone assembly to India on the stated 18-month timeline

Apple's reported plan to make every US-bound iPhone in India rather than China lands roughly on the stated schedule (18 months, by end-2026). Friedberg's case is that this is not a standing start - Foxconn and others have been building Indian capacity for years, there are already one or two model runs live in country, so the remaining work is replication and scale-up, and Tim Cook does not publicly commit to an 18-month date he cannot hit ('He's not Elon'). Chamath takes the other side flatly - 'See you in 2035' - arguing a supply-chain move of that magnitude does not get done in 18 months. Sacks calls the move geopolitically smart but explicitly declines a view on timing.

also touching these tickers, same direction: Apple: the AI dark horse via local models 23 (AAPL)

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Mention log

Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E225 (2025-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 30:53 SUPPORT · horizon 18mo

“I don't think the Apple deal is from a standstill. My understanding is Foxconn and others have been working with Apple to actually stand up manufacturing capacity in India for some time now. And I do believe that they probably have one or two model runs already active in the country. ... It's not often that Tim Cook will stand up and say, I'm going to do something in 18 months and then be delayed by yours. He's not Elon. He's going to come out. He's going to be very clear.”

Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E225 (2025-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 29:28 OPPOSE · horizon 18mo

“Yeah, they should do it. But I'm just saying that's a... It's very smart. It's not going to get done in 18 months.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg w=1.08

1 scoring event · 78% of moves

+37.7 → net +37.7

Chamath w=0.90

1 scoring event · 22% of moves

+0.0 / -10.8 → net -10.8

⏳ decay drained -19.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events