🤖 Apple relocates US-bound iPhone assembly to India on the stated 18-month timeline
Apple's reported plan to make every US-bound iPhone in India rather than China lands roughly on the stated schedule (18 months, by end-2026). Friedberg's case is that this is not a standing start - Foxconn and others have been building Indian capacity for years, there are already one or two model runs live in country, so the remaining work is replication and scale-up, and Tim Cook does not publicly commit to an 18-month date he cannot hit ('He's not Elon'). Chamath takes the other side flatly - 'See you in 2035' - arguing a supply-chain move of that magnitude does not get done in 18 months. Sacks calls the move geopolitically smart but explicitly declines a view on timing.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG AAPL
expression · bullish tech
RIGHT
result · return +64.7% · vs SPY +23.4%
2026-10-26
born 2025-04-26 (E225) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
AAPL ·
Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice
SHORT
WATCH 49.3
← stronger than this idea (5.8)
AAPL ·
ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay
SHORT
EMBER 21.2
← stronger than this idea (5.8)
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Apple: the AI dark horse via local models 47 (AAPL)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-04-26 → 2026-10-26 — first mention + 18-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG AAPL (primary play). AAPL rose 64.7% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +64.7% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +41.2% → vs SPY = +64.7 − (+41.2) = +23.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 64.7, vs SPY 23.4)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg | opposed: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: INDA→MISS (-12.6%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-04-26)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Friedberg
tech 55% · n=66
· E225 (2025-04-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 30:53
SUPPORT
· horizon 18mo
“I don't think the Apple deal is from a standstill. My understanding is Foxconn and others have been working with Apple to actually stand up manufacturing capacity in India for some time now. And I do believe that they probably have one or two model runs already active in the country. ... It's not often that Tim Cook will stand up and say, I'm going to do something in 18 months and then be delayed by yours. He's not Elon. He's going to come out. He's going to be very clear.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -17.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E225 2025-04-26 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E225 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E225 2025-04-26 | oppose | -12.0 | 23.0 | E225 Chamath opposes x2 |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.5 | 22.5 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.5 | 22.1 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.4 | 21.6 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 21.2 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.4 | 20.8 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.4 | 20.4 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.4 | 20.0 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.4 | 19.6 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.4 | 19.2 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.4 | 18.8 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.4 | 18.4 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.4 | 18.0 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.4 | 17.7 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.4 | 17.3 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.3 | 17.0 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.3 | 16.6 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.3 | 16.3 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.3 | 16.0 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.3 | 15.7 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.3 | 15.4 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.3 | 15.0 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.3 | 14.7 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.3 | 14.5 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.3 | 14.2 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.3 | 13.9 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.3 | 13.6 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.3 | 13.3 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.3 | 13.1 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.3 | 12.8 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.3 | 12.5 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.3 | 12.3 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.2 | 12.0 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -0.2 | 11.8 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -0.2 | 11.6 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -0.2 | 11.3 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -0.2 | 11.1 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -0.2 | 10.9 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -0.2 | 10.7 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -0.2 | 10.5 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -0.2 | 10.3 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -0.2 | 10.0 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -0.2 | 9.8 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -0.2 | 9.6 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -0.2 | 9.5 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -0.2 | 9.3 | E271 silent |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -0.2 | 9.1 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | decay | -0.2 | 8.9 | E273 silent |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -0.2 | 8.7 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -0.2 | 8.5 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -0.2 | 8.4 | E276 silent |
| E277 2026-06-19 | decay | -0.2 | 8.2 | E277 silent |
| E278 2026-06-26 | decay | -0.2 | 8.0 | E278 silent |
| E279 2026-07-03 | decay | -0.2 | 7.9 | E279 silent |
| E280 2026-07-11 | decay | -0.2 | 7.7 | E280 silent |
| E281 2026-07-18 | decay | -0.2 | 7.6 | E281 silent |
| E282 2026-07-24 | decay | -0.2 | 7.4 | E282 silent |
| E283 2026-07-31 | decay | -0.1 | 7.3 | E283 silent |
| E284 2026-08-08 | decay | -0.1 | 7.1 | E284 silent |
| E285 2026-08-14 | decay | -0.1 | 7.0 | E285 silent |
| E286 2026-08-21 | decay | -0.1 | 6.8 | E286 silent |
| E287 2026-08-29 | decay | -0.1 | 6.7 | E287 silent |
| E288 2026-09-04 | decay | -0.1 | 6.6 | E288 silent |
| E289 2026-09-11 | decay | -0.1 | 6.4 | E289 silent |
| E290 2026-09-26 | decay | -0.1 | 6.3 | E290 silent |
| E291 2026-10-02 | decay | -0.1 | 6.2 | E291 silent |
| E292 2026-10-10 | decay | -0.1 | 6.1 | E292 silent |
| E293 2026-10-17 | decay | -0.1 | 5.9 | E293 silent |
| E294 2026-10-23 | decay | -0.1 | 5.8 | E294 silent |