🤖 High-bandwidth memory makers are 2025's best asset
HBM is a bigger share of Nvidia GPU COGS than TSMC, only SK Hynix and Micron can make it, it's been sold out for two years, and test-time compute makes it more critical than ever.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 55.0 WATCH
EMBER
band
▲ LONG MU
expression · bullish tech
HIT
outcome · R +218.8% · α +202.7%
2026-01-04
window closed
also touching these tickers, same direction: DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters 45 (MU)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG MU (primary play). MU rose 218.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +218.8% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1% → α = +218.8 − (+16.1) = +202.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 218.8, α 202.7)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Gavin Baker
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-04)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | MU | stock | PRIMARY | Micron — the US-listed HBM maker named |
Mention log
Gavin Baker
(regular guest ×1.0)
tech w=1.46 · n=13
· E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:14:09
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“The companies that make high bandwidth memory... HBM is a bigger part of NVIDIA's COGS on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. Today there's two companies that can make it, Hynix and Micron... it's been sold out for the last two years. So high bandwidth memory would be my pick.”
Gavin Baker
(regular guest ×1.0)
tech w=1.46 · n=13
· E221 (2025-03-29) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 11:07
SUPPORT
“The price of memory, DRAM, goes up every day. So we're not overbuilt today.”
Chamath
tech w=0.90 · n=83
· E246 (2025-10-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 50:39
SUPPORT
“When you look at the HBM market... AMD's next architecture actually needs to sit on top of HBM... the people that then control that supply, SK Hynix and Samsung, will have leverage... [Sam is] buying forward capacity on HBM because now he can allocate that share.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -59.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E209 2025-01-04 | init | +55.0 | 55.0 | E209 born by Gavin Baker (annual_prediction x2) [w=1.46] |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -2.2 | 52.8 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -2.1 | 50.7 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -2.0 | 48.7 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -1.9 | 46.7 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -1.9 | 44.8 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -1.8 | 43.1 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -1.7 | 41.3 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -1.7 | 39.7 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -1.6 | 38.1 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -1.5 | 36.6 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -1.5 | 35.1 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | reinforce | +11.4 | 46.5 | E221 Gavin Baker support x1 [w=1.46] |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -1.9 | 44.6 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -1.8 | 42.8 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -1.7 | 41.1 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -1.6 | 39.5 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -1.6 | 37.9 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -1.5 | 36.4 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -1.5 | 34.9 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -1.4 | 33.5 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -1.3 | 32.2 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -1.3 | 30.9 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -1.1 | 27.3 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -1.1 | 26.2 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -1.0 | 25.2 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -1.0 | 23.2 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.9 | 20.5 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.8 | 19.7 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.8 | 18.9 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | reinforce | +16.6 | 34.8 | E246 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=0.90] |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -1.4 | 33.4 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -1.3 | 32.1 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -1.3 | 30.8 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -1.2 | 29.6 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -1.2 | 28.4 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -1.1 | 27.3 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -1.1 | 26.2 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -1.0 | 25.1 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -1.0 | 24.1 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -1.0 | 23.1 | E256 silent |