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🤖 High-bandwidth memory makers are 2025's best asset

HBM is a bigger share of Nvidia GPU COGS than TSMC, only SK Hynix and Micron can make it, it's been sold out for two years, and test-time compute makes it more critical than ever.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 40.0 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG MU
expression · bullish tech
RIGHT
result · return +218.8% · vs SPY +202.7%
2026-01-04
born 2025-01-04 (E209) → window closed

other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters 42 (MU)

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2025-01-04 → 2026-01-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG MU (primary play). MU rose 218.8% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +218.8% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.1% → vs SPY = +218.8 − (+16.1) = +202.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 218.8, vs SPY 202.7)
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    · WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Gavin Baker

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-01-04)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG MUstock PRIMARY Micron — the US-listed HBM maker named

Mention log newest first

Chamath
Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E246 (2025-10-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 50:39 SUPPORT
“When you look at the HBM market... AMD's next architecture actually needs to sit on top of HBM... the people that then control that supply, SK Hynix and Samsung, will have leverage... [Sam is] buying forward capacity on HBM because now he can allocate that share.”
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) tech 73% · n=13 · E221 (2025-03-29) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 11:07 SUPPORT
“The price of memory, DRAM, goes up every day. So we're not overbuilt today.”
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) tech 73% · n=13 · E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:14:09 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo
“The companies that make high bandwidth memory... HBM is a bigger part of NVIDIA's COGS on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. Today there's two companies that can make it, Hynix and Micron... it's been sold out for the last two years. So high bandwidth memory would be my pick.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker 73% regular guest ×1.0
2 scoring events · 72% of moves
+48.9 → net +48.9
Chamath
Chamath 45%
1 scoring event · 28% of moves
+19.5 → net +19.5

⏳ decay drained -46.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E209 2025-01-04 init +40.0 40.0 E209 born by Gavin Baker (annual_prediction x2)
E210 2025-01-11 decay -1.6 38.4 E210 silent
E211 2025-01-18 decay -1.5 36.9 E211 silent
E212 2025-01-25 decay -1.5 35.4 E212 silent
E213 2025-01-31 decay -1.4 34.0 E213 silent
E214 2025-02-07 decay -1.4 32.6 E214 silent
E215 2025-02-15 decay -1.3 31.3 E215 silent
E216 2025-02-21 decay -1.3 30.1 E216 silent
E217 2025-03-01 decay -1.2 28.9 E217 silent
E218 2025-03-08 decay -1.2 27.7 E218 silent
E219 2025-03-15 decay -1.1 26.6 E219 silent
E220 2025-03-22 decay -1.1 25.5 E220 silent
E221 2025-03-29 reinforce +8.9 34.5 E221 Gavin Baker support x1
E222 2025-04-05 decay -1.4 33.1 E222 silent
E223 2025-04-11 decay -1.3 31.8 E223 silent
E224 2025-04-19 decay -1.3 30.5 E224 silent
E225 2025-04-26 decay -1.2 29.3 E225 silent
E226 2025-05-02 decay -1.2 28.1 E226 silent
E227 2025-05-09 decay -1.1 27.0 E227 silent
E228 2025-05-17 decay -1.1 25.9 E228 silent
E229 2025-05-24 decay -1.0 24.9 E229 silent
E231 2025-06-13 decay -1.0 23.9 E231 silent
E232 2025-06-21 decay -1.0 22.9 E232 silent
E233 2025-06-28 decay -0.9 22.0 E233 silent
E234 2025-07-04 decay -0.9 21.1 E234 silent
E235 2025-07-11 decay -0.8 20.3 E235 silent
E236 2025-07-19 decay -0.8 19.5 E236 silent
E237 2025-08-01 decay -0.8 18.7 E237 silent
E238 2025-08-09 decay -0.7 17.9 E238 silent
E239 2025-08-15 decay -0.7 17.2 E239 silent
E240 2025-08-22 decay -0.7 16.5 E240 silent
E241 2025-08-29 decay -0.7 15.9 E241 silent
E242 2025-09-07 decay -0.6 15.2 E242 silent
E243 2025-09-19 decay -0.6 14.6 E243 silent
E244 2025-09-27 decay -0.6 14.0 E244 silent
E245 2025-10-03 decay -0.6 13.5 E245 silent
E246 2025-10-10 reinforce +19.5 32.9 E246 Chamath support x2 (new voice)
E247 2025-10-17 decay -1.3 31.6 E247 silent
E248 2025-10-24 decay -1.3 30.4 E248 silent
E249 2025-10-31 decay -1.2 29.1 E249 silent
E250 2025-11-07 decay -1.2 28.0 E250 silent
E251 2025-11-14 decay -1.1 26.9 E251 silent
E252 2025-11-22 decay -1.1 25.8 E252 silent
E253 2025-12-06 decay -1.0 24.8 E253 silent
E254 2025-12-13 decay -1.0 23.8 E254 silent
E255 2025-12-19 decay -1.0 22.8 E255 silent
E256 2025-12-31 decay -0.9 21.9 E256 silent