🏛️ Blue-state permitting has broken housing construction — building migrates to light-regulation states
California's Byzantine permitting, tenant-rights regime, transfer taxes and single-family zoning have destroyed the market for housing construction, so nobody wants to be a landlord or a developer there. Lightly-regulated red cities and states (Miami, Houston, Austin) and non-sentimental New York build freely, so construction activity, capital and residents keep migrating to them and the states that compete on regulation win household and business formation.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 64.5 WATCH
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG ITB
expression · bullish politics-market
HIT
outcome · R +43.0% · α +35.7%
2023-08-20
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
ITB ·
LA fire rebuild stalls for years, not months
SHORT
DORMANT 15.0
← stronger than this idea (9.9)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-08-20 → 2023-08-20 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ITB (primary play). ITB rose 43.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +43.0% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +7.3% → α = +43.0 − (+7.3) = +35.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 43.0, α 35.7)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-08-20)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ITB | etf | PRIMARY | US homebuilder basket — where the actual construction volume the besties describe gets booked |
| ▲ LONG | DHI | stock | adjacent | national volume builder concentrated in low-regulation states |
| ▲ LONG | LEN | stock | adjacent | largest Florida/Texas-weighted builder, most levered to the Sunbelt migration leg |
Mention log
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E92 (2022-08-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 40:04
SUPPORT
“But my point is just we've like so broken the free market for housing that we then come along and say, see, the free market's not working. We need more government mandates. Look, is this happening in Miami?”
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E92 (2022-08-20) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 44:20
SUPPORT
“So I think David is right, which is that there's a contortion of laws that come together, that underlie some of these decisions that then manifest in a petition like this, and etc. They all need to get cleaned up.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -54.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E92 2022-08-20 | init | +40.6 | 40.6 | E92 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.97] |
| E92 2022-08-20 | reinforce | +13.7 | 54.2 | E92 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=1.02] |
| E92 2022-08-20 | reinforce | +10.3 | 64.5 | E92 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -2.6 | 61.9 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -2.5 | 59.5 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -2.4 | 57.1 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -2.3 | 54.8 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -2.2 | 52.6 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -2.1 | 50.5 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -2.0 | 48.5 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -1.9 | 46.5 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -1.9 | 44.7 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -1.8 | 42.9 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -1.7 | 41.2 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -1.6 | 39.5 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -1.6 | 38.0 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -1.5 | 36.4 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -1.5 | 35.0 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -1.3 | 32.2 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -1.3 | 30.9 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.7 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.6 | 14.8 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E142 silent |