🛢️ Global drought turns self-sufficient countries into food importers
Simultaneous drought across the US west, Brazil, the Mediterranean/southern Europe and large parts of Africa threatens food supply and flips currently self-sufficient countries into importers — bid under agricultural commodities and ag inputs.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 42.9 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG DBA
expression · bullish commodities
HIT
outcome · R +15.1% · α +24.6%
2022-07-09
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-07-09 → 2022-07-09 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG DBA (primary play). DBA rose 15.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +15.1% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -9.5% → α = +15.1 − (-9.5) = +24.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 15.1, α 24.6)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: MOO→PARTIAL (-5.1%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-07-09)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | DBA | etf | PRIMARY | broad agricultural commodity basket — direct read on drought-driven food prices |
| ▲ LONG | MOO | etf | adjacent | agribusiness/ag-input equities benefit from a hard bid for yield per acre-foot |
| ▲ LONG | WEAT | etf | adjacent | wheat is the import staple for the countries losing self-sufficiency |
Mention log
Chamath
commodities w=0.80 · n=10
· E39 (2021-07-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 11:14
SUPPORT
“No, Jason, even worse than this, we're in a position where we are threatening our own food supply. Just to put a finer point on this, it's not just the western half of the United States that's now suffering from this. It's Brazil, it's the Mediterranean and Southern Europe, and it's large parts of Africa. You add up all those number of people, there are many countries there that are actually self-sufficient, which will then no longer be, will have to import food.”
Friedberg
commodities w=0.75 · n=8
· E71 (2022-03-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 18:48
SUPPORT
“By the way, Russia and the Ukraine combined account for roughly 25% of global wheat exports. ... That wheat goes to Egypt and from Egypt it goes throughout Africa. And there's a lot of nations and a lot of people that depend on that food supply. And that food supply is now cut off.”
Friedberg
commodities w=0.75 · n=8
· E72 (2022-03-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 16:39
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“So there's a number of first order and then second order effects that are not just about sanctions, but also about export controls by Russia that are creating swings in food markets like we've never seen and will almost certainly lead to widespread famine by the end of this year at this point. ... the price of ammonia fertilizer, nitrogen-based fertilizer has gone from $200 a ton to $1,000 a ton ... So now it's so expensive to grow a crop that a lot of farmers around the world are pulling acres out of production”
Friedberg
commodities w=0.75 · n=8
· E75 (2022-04-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:04:15
SUPPORT
· horizon 9mo
“countries like China and others started to stockpile. They started to buy lots and lots of supply, drive up their stocks and their reserves, you know, for fear of the famine that's about to hit us in about nine months. ... they just downgraded the number of corn acres that are going to get planted this year, which is happening starting this month, from 93 million acres to 89 million.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -36.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E39 2021-07-09 | init | +28.0 | 28.0 | E39 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.80] |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.0 | 22.8 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | reinforce | +18.5 | 27.1 | E71 Friedberg support x3 (new voice) [w=0.75] |
| E72 2022-03-19 | reinforce | +9.8 | 36.9 | E72 Friedberg support x3 [w=0.75] |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -1.5 | 35.5 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | reinforce | +8.9 | 42.9 | E75 Friedberg support x3 [w=0.75] |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -1.7 | 41.2 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -1.6 | 39.6 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -1.6 | 38.0 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -1.5 | 36.5 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -1.5 | 35.0 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E86 silent |