+0.0
net board stance
what this means
3.16
+4.0% · close 2026-09-08
+2% / -31% / -3%
1m / 3m / 12m
-194%
vs SPY since 2022-04-30
19%
of 52w range · -58.0% off high
1/2
hit rate as primary · α -31
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on SPCE
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.5, average α -30.9. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 SPAC complex busts as the zero-rate synthetic-bond bid dies | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +18.4% | +7.3 | 2021-06-06 |
| 📈 IPO 2.0: the Chamath SPAC complex | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +45.0% | +10.9 | 2021-09-09 |
| 🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -34.6% | -24.0 | 2022-06-13 |
| 📈 Virgin Galactic starts commercial flights within two to three quarters | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -70.2% | -72.7 | 2022-04-16 |
| 🤖 Space companies stay cheap until they have non-government revenue | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -10.1% | -43.7 | 2024-03-24 |
| 📈 Space sector is overfunded with one real customer | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +30.8% | +39.9 | 2022-08-28 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding SPCE, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Friedberg
support ×2
▼ on
🤖 Space companies stay cheap until they have non-government revenue
E121 · 2023-03-24
▶ 1:27:48
I do think all these guys are going to have to, in order to gain wider spread capital markets attention, like Elon has had to do with SpaceX, are going to have to find business models that have kind of near-term viability that don't depend on government contracts.
Chamath
support ×1
▲ on
🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two
E60 · 2021-12-23
▶ 1:16:00
If you think about what the next five to ten years can bring, Jason, at what you said earlier about making ourselves a multi-planetary species, what an inspiring thing that these thousands of employees across these three businesses did.
Doesn't it introduce the risk of the retail investor? We're seeing more retail participation via syndicates, via one-off investments, online marketplaces, and also SPACs, where the retail investor relies on Chamath ... is there not some inevitable kind of SEC backlash and consideration around how are private companies ultimately raising money and how much they are disclosing? We face this regulatory threat.
Friedberg
support ×2
▼ on
📈 Space sector is overfunded with one real customer
E44 · 2021-08-28
▶ 1:26:25
I am concerned about, frankly, the lack of commercial readiness for this industry. I feel like in terms of the hype cycle, we're at that early point where the investment dollars and the number of companies exceeds the market demand. ... the challenge is just it's another product market fit question, right? The market is one customer today.
Chamath
support ×3
▲ on
📈 Virgin Galactic starts commercial flights within two to three quarters
E40 · 2021-07-16
▶ 1:04:28
No, I feel really confident that we know what we're doing. This flight was so critical because it was about figuring out what it was like to have passengers in the back and how they would all behave when you had multiple folks. I think once that readout is done and Richard apparently took a bunch of notes, we'll be starting commercial ops, I think, the next two or three quarters.
Friedberg
oppose ×2
▲ on
🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two
E40 · 2021-07-16
▶ 47:28
So there's clearly a great deal of momentum in this industry. The question is always what's the market at the end? ... And we're going to find out over the next couple of years, is there a tourism market? Historically, there's been an interest in a market for visual satellites. But if you look at some of the financials of companies like Planet Labs, they did a few acquisitions in space imaging. And the revenue hasn't really taken off there. And then mining was always this other question. Can we go out and mine rare minerals from space? And that one is just, if you do the math on it, it's so far away, it's impossible to kind of model.
Chamath
support ×3
▲ on
🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two
E40 · 2021-07-16
▶ 40:44
So I don't know, I think this is the beginning of the beginning. I tweeted this out. But basically, if you think about, and there's other stuff that we can't talk about with some other companies that we are all involved in, David and I particularly. But here's the point, guys, between sending people and making us an interplanetary species by creating pervasive Internet access, and by enabling us to safely and reliably transport people either point to point suborbitally or basically into space, we are completely reimagining how the human race can work.
Chamath
support ×1
▲ on
🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two
E35 · 2021-06-13
▶ 37:31
What Friedberg said is so true, which is coming out of the Apollo program, we really created so much technological innovation, it propelled the US forward. We unfortunately gave a lot of it up, but hopefully this time around we can do it again.
Friedberg
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 The space industrial age — Apollo's semiconductor payoff, round two
E35 · 2021-06-13
▶ 33:01
And then they take that money and they invest in creating this space race, this industry that could absolutely transform humanity for the centuries to come. ... It really speaks to how semiconductors and computing came out of the space race of the mid-20th century. And we could see this next industrial age arise for the space industrial age because of these incentives that have been created by the government.
I am one of five groups that put up any money when we do a pipe in our deals. ... So, for example, like, you know, in SoFi, I think we put in $275 million.
The truth of the matter is Chamath is pioneering here. And I think it's been incredible to watch the competition in choice. And as Chamath knows, I participated in a couple of the deals that he's done.
it seems like there's also a deleveraging happening with the funds that bought a lot of these SPACs and DSPAC listings in the aftermarket, right? ... Which kind of creates a bit of a logjam on the back end for a lot of these.
Any random dog and cat was able to raise a SPAC in Q1. And now on the backend, you're going to start seeing some real difficulty. So deals are getting re-traded constantly, which means that IPOs that should have been done at price X is getting discounted by 20% and 30% to get the deal done.
Oh, so, so, you know, live by the SPAC, die by the SPAC. That's what they always say in this business.
Last year, $80 billion was raised in Spacks. This quarter, $100 billion in Spacks. And Spacks are that you cross over investing. It's taking, you know, growth stage, private equity style risk in the public markets with this proliferation of capital. And we're seeing the benefit in the early stage. ... And I think, you know, I think it's the next step up and we just keep seeing these step ups.
And this is where the SPAC makes a ton of sense, because you have a very certain cost of capital. You can now architect a cap table where the founder remains in control, where they and the employees are still more than 50 percent. And you pull in the time of the IPO. Why is that important? Typically today, these companies were taking 12 plus years to go public. Now with SPACs, they've come back in and they're closer to seven and eight years.
a lot of the folks on Twitter, you know, when you see the market straight down and they complain, my reaction is stop crying and do your own work
there's more speculative risk seeking in the public markets in a way that I don't think we've ever seen ... But it's going to be a lot of speculative betting and a lot of losses
Chamath
support ×3
▼ on
📈 SPAC complex busts as the zero-rate synthetic-bond bid dies
E24 · 2021-03-06
▶ 6:22
if you look at the companies that have just announced SPAC deals just in the last few days, their stocks have gotten absolutely obliterated and they're right on the knife's edge going into the redemption period. So if you have one or two more months of this where all of a sudden bonds look better and some of these SPACs post-announcement but pre-de-SPACing go through 10 bucks a share, people just redeem for $10 and you'll have a bunch of busted IPOs.
So in many ways, the SPAC market benefited from rates at zero because you could synthetically be long SPACs as almost the way of being synthetically long fixed income. ... Now as rates go up, that's not true.
we should have Friedberg tell the story of Metromile, but it closed its SPAC transaction and went public and it's doing great
IPOE is merging with SoFi. It's an incredible company led by an incredible CEO, Anthony Noto. [Friedberg: 'It doubled today. It's insane.']
We just announced three — D, E, and F... they're filed with the SEC now... [and IPOB = Opendoor] was announced on Tuesday.
I reserved IPO A through Z on the NYSE. I hope to fulfill that. And I think I will... My personal perspective, it's probably us and maybe one or two other people who really dominate the space... In every deal, I write a minimum of $100 million personally, and that's a lot. That's skin in the game.