🤖 Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T

“I think Anthropic is the multiple bet. I think Anthropic is a trillion five market cap at the end of the day, unless this blows them up... Anthropic is worth a lot more than 350... They just added 6 billion in the last month... everyone's saying the same thing, which is Anthropic may actually be fulfilling the promise of AI.”

“if you're not figuring out how to be multi-model and agnostic across these models, you're taking on enormous business risk after Friday, ... they accidentally may have pissed off every constituent.”

“I bought a lot more since then, Jason. ... we had a $6 billion month out of Anthropic in February, ... more revenue than the annual revenue of Databricks and Snowflake ... said they would both go public this year. I ... want to get some of these shares in the accounts of all these kids”

“There's not a single good example that we can find of sustained, positive margin expansion and impact of AI inside of a true corporate enterprise that is not right now a small test... everybody has to show up to their board and have an AI checkbox... I am spending triple every three months and not seeing my revenues tripling.”

“[Dario forecast a trillion dollars of model/agent revenue by 2030] I think he's being very conservative. I believe Dario and Anthropic is going to do way better than that. Way better than that... every single enterprise software company will also be a value-added reseller of Anthropic tokens.”

“Is there a market for OpenAI at 800 billion? Yes, and there should be. ... These are trillion dollar companies. They both are. And they both deserve to be. ... These two companies need to get out as quickly as possible.”

“We've got billions in both companies at this point... They added 4 billion of revenue in January, 7 billion in February, 10 or 11 billion in March [annualized]... the largest revenue explosion in the history of technology... I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at $80 to $100 billion in revenue... I'm a buyer of the shares today.”

“The OpenAI growth rate has been around 3-4x a year. The Anthropic growth rate has been around 10x a year... they're going to end this year at 80-100 billion, at least on the current trajectory... you could see Anthropic taking a lead here that, let's say over the next one or two years, could be insurmountable.”

“If I were them, it is a five alarm fire for them. They, more than anybody else, needs to get their hands on compute. ... otherwise that revenue could either slow down or hit a wall, and it will not be because of product quality and adoption. It will entirely be because of the Friendster effect. You just couldn't keep the site up.”

“I think they're going to be fine. I think this is a multi-trillion dollar company. I think Anthropic is a multi-trillion dollar company. ... Everything in this market is power constrained. The reason that these folks may miss a number ... nothing to do with demand. It is entirely 100 percent due to the supply of the power necessary to generate the output token.”

“Opus 4.7, the latest Anthropic release, appears to be a bust... they're rolling back to 4.6... Opus 4.7 is rationing compute, reducing thinking time... Anthropic is token constrained... I'm seeing a lot of people saying that they are shifting their coding usage from Opus to GPT 5.5.”

“let me be the first to congratulate Dario on winning the AI race. ... from January 1st to March 31st, they grew from roughly 10 billion of ARR to 30 billion. ... unless something about their current trajectory changes, Anthropic will be the most powerful monopoly ever created in human history.”

“Anthropic and OpenAI's revenue performance has nothing to do with demand, zero. It is entirely to do with the supply constraints that exist in data centers and specifically in power. If they had infinite power, ... their revenues would probably be even more parabolic. ... the five-year view for those two companies is quite robust.”

“These coding agents are awesome. Anthropic is awesome. Like I am going to probably use $300 million of Anthropic this year at Salesforce... my gosh, have you seen Anthropic? It is a rocket ship that will not stop.”

“What is happening with AI right now, with Anthropic growing faster than any company in history at massive scale? ... they're bigger than 100 different countries for sure. Exactly. And compounding really fast and now profitable.”

“there is the potential for the monopolization of this market to a greater degree than people may be pricing in right now. ... Anthropic's now at, they seem to have pulled away from OpenAI, which is not surprising and something I predicted. Look, if you have one company that's growing at 10x year over year and another company that's growing at 3x year over year, within two years, the first company will have 90% market share.”

“Claude is really good at product. Like Claude for Excel is better than Copilot. Not by a little, by a lot. So anyone that's going to run against them, they are a worthy foe.”

“they will increasingly take in prompts, evaluate the prompts, and decide what to do with them ... a person, you should generally now think there's a risk of censorship. If you're a company, I think it's almost a non-starter. ... you'll get cut off from a very important source of business differentiation”

“Over the last couple of weeks, they've begun to restrict the ability to use the models to do that ... we are likely going to end up needing to use open-source models and run them locally ourselves. ... forcing a lot of companies to go and get open-source Chinese models ... We're seeing this across the landscape with startups, with large-scale enterprises. Everyone's making that move. ... We're gonna chase people off of this platform.”

“once you're in one of these situations, it's always harder to extricate yourself ... hubris and they misplayed it. And it ended up getting kicked out under their own nascent pre-approval regime. ... by not releasing mythos in April, the company suffered massively commercially.”

“the hyperscalers are out over their ski tips. They have trillions of dollars of on balance sheet and off balance sheet exposure to AI. The best thing that they can do to underwrite all of that money is to kneecap the frontier labs and play gatekeeper, charge a toll, take a tax. It is business 101”

“I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today. ... that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company. ... they're going to end this year well over $100 billion. ... It will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference dominated and people are reporting they have 85 percent gross margins on inference.”

“Anthropic quote unquote blindsided its then business partner with the launch of Claude Design. ... Chief Product Officer had actually even served on Figma's board and didn't resign until three days before the launch ... Claude Science, Claude Security, Claude Legal, Claude Financial and of course, Claude Code. ... they're watching where the value is being created on top of their models, then they're moving in directly. ... if you're an enterprise customer or a developer, why in the world would you ever want to share any proprietary data with them? You are mortgaging your future,”

“In a relative value basis right now, OpenAI equity I think is more reasonably priced than Anthropic equity. ... OpenAI can fall back on a really healthy consumer business. Sure, the difficulty that Anthropic is going to face is that, ... they have lost this fundamental trust about being able to stay within their sandbox. ... pigeonholed and you get cornered and people find ways to work around it.”

“there's been an effort by Anthropic to go around and sign up life sciences companies to contributing to a new life sciences focused model. ... nearly everyone I've spoken with has woken up to the fact that they are basically trying to commoditize everyone's business. ... you are effectively commoditizing the asset that you have,”

“I suspect that if you can get out now, you should get out now before all of that starts to seep into the water table. ... Enterprise is probably a little bit more brittle because there are fewer buyers and they're more demanding. Consumer, on the other hand, ... when I use Fable 5, the problem is that it's nerfed on a bunch of things that I would normally research. ... it shouldn't really matter what model I'm using”

“rumored to be trending over 100 billion in revenue ... I think it would be a blockbuster IPO. ... Altimeter would be a buyer at scale and at size in both of those IPOs. ... If these guys end the year over $100 billion, ... they're on a revenue trajectory that they could 3 to 5x again next year. ... 200 billion of incremental revenue is incomprehensible in the history of Silicon Valley, ... intelligence is the largest TAM we've ever seen in the history of the world.”

“They started the year at 10 billion of ARR. They're now over 70 billion... the fastest growing tech company at scale in history... they're easily going to get to 100 billion... they're going to be fine... both Anthropic and OpenAI are taking their estimates up right now... The idea that they're at risk of getting their entire franchise destroyed — it's not in the data yet... it's not only about the model, it's also about the harness, the connectors, the enterprise agreements.”

“I believe that this is going to derail their IPOs. ... they're going to get caught in a trap. ... They overspend. They don't have the same profitability and it doesn't pencil out. ... have all moved en masse, GLM 5.2, making their own models. ... They are going to start losing a lot of customers to open source,”

“I hear a lot of people saying 1.5 or 2 trillion dollars. ... it's going to be run rating over 100 billion maybe by the end of the year. That's like 10 to 15 times revenue. That is not that much for a company that just grew 10x and is rumored to be profitable in Q2.”

“Anthropic is now over 80 billion of ARR. ... it had forecast 100 billion as exit ARR for the year, and most people said that ... Now it looks like they're going to do it with a couple of months to spare. So their estimates are going up, I mean, 110, 120 or higher for end of year ARR.”

“[On $2T:] these leaks are always coming from the bankers who probably lost lead left... if it comes out at two trillion, it probably means the roadshow went incredibly well. People do want to own this. [I said 3 to 4 trillion] was a market clearing price... Whatever the Wall Street consensus is for 2027, I'll take a 25 to 30% over on that... 4-500 billion is within the zone of realistic and achievable.”

“I actually was going to say 4-500 billion as exit ARR for next year. Seems very comfortable... the over-under really is 500 billion exit ARR for next year, and I think they think they'll do the over... the Anthropic IPO is really important for the market — everyone's going to be looking to Anthropic's quarterly earnings as the pace car.”

“I think Anthropic's growth rate is going to slow considerably next year, ... There's no way they get to a trillion in revenue next year. I think maybe they could triple, get to 300 or 400”

“If you think you are bringing about the singularity — and let's face it, he probably is in the lead to do that, to bring about recursive self-improvement — he should defend this future.”