+0.0
net board stance
what this means
94.6
+4.3% · close 2026-09-08
+8% / +18% / +89%
1m / 3m / 12m
+105%
vs SPY since 2023-10-13
96%
of 52w range · -1.9% off high
—
hit rate as primary
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Track record on COPX
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| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚡ China's nuclear build gives it a cheap-electricity manufacturing edge | ▲ LONG | adjacent | PARTIAL | +37.0% | -18.2 | 2025-01-20 |
| 🛢️ Battery metals squeeze — lithium, nickel, cobalt push EV prices up 20-30% | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +13.9% | +6.5 | 2022-03-13 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding COPX, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
JO
Joe Lonsdale
support ×2
▲ on
⚡ China's nuclear build gives it a cheap-electricity manufacturing edge
E206 · 2024-12-07
▶ 15:39
This is a key national security thing, too, because we need manufacturing here to be affordable and competitive in order for national security
which is the increment in electricity production capacity in China compared to the United States. And so we are going from one terawatt to two terawatts. They're going from, I think, two to eight over the same time period, and they're doing it at a price
Maybe it's not such a bad thing that other countries are taking the early adopter risk of this technology.
But if China runs away with this and they have so many of these running, and then they're able to power AI and solve problems were not, we're going to have to get our act together and start standing these up.
We can fix that tomorrow. We already rely on a nuclear reactor that works, and to Sacks' point, it just happens to be millions of miles away.
If China races towards five cents per kilowatt hour for electricity, and we're sitting here at 20 cents a kilowatt hour for electricity, what's that going to do to our economic competitiveness?
China has more electricity production. It's cheaper to make electricity and it's cheaper to build new capacity and they're building at an accelerated rate.
China's building 150 nuclear reactors and they're only spending about $2,500 a kilowatt.
Today, 79% of lithium ion battery production comes out of China. The US is only 6.2% of global lithium ion battery production... that China has a huge leg up and is going to become a critical point of dependency for the United States to develop an arsenal necessary to be competitive in this kind of next evolution of warfare
the number of people that could have been pulled out of poverty if we made cheap, abundant energy available at an accelerated pace rather than at a decelerated pace, it could have had a much more significant effect. ... Meanwhile, you see China building 450 nuclear fission stations and the US building none. And I think that that's part of the story of where the US is today.
if you look at nuclear, we just had a bunch of, I think it was senators signing a bill. I think you might have tweeted it, Chamath, of support of nuclear, 21 nuclear power plants are being directed at this moment in China, eight in India. The United States only has one, which is kind of an extension.
Even if energy is zero in China, you have to think about inputs, meaning factories make things with inputs. And if you look, for example, in natural resources, the inputs, by and large, don't exist in China.
My point was that in China, and I've made this point many times, but I just think it's a really important one that will play out over the next couple of years. They're building 450 nuclear power plants, they're going to get the cost of industrial power below five cents or four cents a kilowatt hour, and they're electrifying all their factories.
China has done a masterful job. They control a lot of the lithium, a lot of the nickel, a lot of the cobalt, a lot of the graphite. They control a lot of the rare earths that go into the permanent magnets. And we don't have a solution.
We don't have rare earths. We don't have lithium. We don't have nickel. We don't have cobalt. We don't have graphite. So we actually can't make the batteries, which means that now oil is at $100 a barrel and gas costs $10 at the pump.
yesterday, we're starting something really ambitious in batteries, and I have to sit there for an hour, and we have to go through ordering the equipment, setting up the lab, getting the human resource
I had a kickoff meeting for a startup that's doing something incredible in batteries ... and then I had a call because I'm trying to put a you know, more than a billion dollars to work in a different battery idea.
if you believe in electrification and you believe in, you know, zero emissions and you believe in using these batteries, you need to believe in nickel, which is a tough business, okay? ... And right now, we have a deficit of nickel that's going to emerge now in less than a year. ... And we have about a 37 to 40% shortage of what we need.
if you break down the batteries, it goes into three critical inputs, lithium, nickel and cobalt. ... And so the cost of Tesla's are going to go up by 20 or 30%