🌍 Nearshoring to Mexico as China's cheap-labour edge disappears
Mexico passed China on labour cost around 2020, and with China-to-US transit stretched to 120 days brands respond by moving production closer to home. Mexico lacks the capacity and skills today but builds them, so the manufacturing footprint shifts to Mexico and North America. Petersen's operator caveat: the Shenzhen/Greater Bay electronics ecosystem stays because it is no longer about cheap labour - it is the pure cheap-labour work that leaves.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 41.3 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG EWW
expression · bullish macro
HIT
outcome · R +20.8% · α +14.7%
2023-05-24
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-05-24 → 2023-05-24 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG EWW (primary play). EWW rose 20.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +20.8% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +6.1% → α = +20.8 − (+6.1) = +14.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 20.8, α 14.7)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Ryan Petersen | proxy-sensitive: UNP→MISS (-9.4%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-05-24)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | EWW | etf | PRIMARY | Mexico equity market is the cleanest listed expression of a manufacturing-footprint shift |
| ▲ LONG | UNP | stock | adjacent | Mexico-gateway rail volumes rise with cross-border manufacturing |
Mention log
RY
Ryan Petersen
(regular guest ×1.0)
macro: 4 resolved, unproven
· E82 (2022-05-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 56:56
SUPPORT
“And if it's just cheap labor, two years ago, Mexico became cheaper than China in labor costs. ... It was a huge shift. And now Mexico doesn't have the manufacturing capacity. They don't have the skill sets. They don't. But they'll build it. And people will respond to that trend. As long as it takes 120 days to ship stuff from China to the US and we can't get this sorted out, brands are going to respond to shipping closer to home. So that is a trend that you're going to see more and more of.”
Chamath
macro w=1.06 · n=47
· E90 (2022-08-05) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 47:29
SUPPORT
“So, CATL, which is Tesla's biggest battery supplier, basically, you know, delayed the announcement of a factory. It's not clear whether they're going to put it into the United States. They may actually pick a city in Mexico.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -43.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E82 2022-05-24 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E82 born by Ryan Petersen (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | reinforce | +13.9 | 41.3 | E90 Chamath support x1 (new voice) [w=1.06] |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -1.7 | 39.6 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -1.6 | 38.1 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -1.5 | 36.5 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -1.5 | 35.1 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -1.4 | 33.7 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -1.2 | 29.8 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -1.2 | 28.6 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -1.1 | 25.3 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -1.0 | 24.3 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.9 | 22.4 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.9 | 21.5 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | reinforce | +13.6 | 28.5 | E118 Chamath support x2 [w=1.06] |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -1.1 | 27.3 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -1.1 | 26.2 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -1.0 | 25.2 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -1.0 | 23.2 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | reinforce | +12.5 | 33.9 | E126 Chamath support x2 [w=1.06] |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E129 silent |