🛢️ US state-backed critical-minerals champions win
China price-shapes and dumps to lock capital markets out of competing critical-minerals supply; the US answer — equity-backed national champions (the MP model, now Intel) — locks in the domestic winners. Disclosed involvement in MP Materials and Intellis (rare earths).
0
CONVICTION
peaked 43.5 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG MP
expression · bullish commodities
MISS
outcome · R -21.1% · α -41.7%
2026-08-29
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-08-29 → 2026-08-29 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG MP (primary play). MP fell 21.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -21.1% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +20.6% → α = -21.1 − (+20.6) = -41.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-08-29)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | MP | stock | PRIMARY | the named, disclosed rare-earths champion with US-government backing |
Mention log
Chamath
commodities w=0.80 · n=10
· E241 (2025-08-29) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 38:38
SUPPORT
“I can talk to you about rare earths as one very specific example through my involvement with MP and now with Intellis. The Chinese have an extremely sophisticated market-driven approach... they'll price shape, they'll price dump... that locks the capital markets. [The US equity-stake answer:] we did exactly what China did with a couple of tweaks... the US taxpayer gets some of the upside. That is awesome... more of them is what I would say.”
Chamath
commodities w=0.80 · n=10
· E247 (2025-10-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 27:04
SUPPORT
“MP has a deal with General Motors, one of my businesses that makes LFP cathode, same deal with GM... the US balance sheet is the only one that can create a strategic reserve around these inputs... I'm a big fan of this general market structure. It's the only way that you can not be theoretical and actually respond to the conditions on the ground... The real future markets that really matter is in robotics, because these permanent magnets are the key input to the actuation mechanism of the robots.”
Sacks
commodities: 4 resolved, unproven
· E247 (2025-10-17) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 24:48
SUPPORT
POLICY-ADJACENT
“The price floors... are designed to create enough certainty for US investors that they can reinvest in rare earths and reshore the processing and the casting of rare earth magnets... you have to address that if you want to alleviate the American dependency on this critical resource.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -39.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E241 2025-08-29 | init | +24.0 | 24.0 | E241 born by Chamath (positioning x2) [w=0.80] |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.8 | 20.4 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | reinforce | +14.5 | 34.0 | E247 Sacks support x1 (new voice) |
| E247 2025-10-17 | reinforce | +9.5 | 43.5 | E247 Chamath support x3 [w=0.80] |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -1.7 | 41.8 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -1.7 | 40.1 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -1.6 | 38.5 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -1.5 | 37.0 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -1.5 | 35.5 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -1.4 | 34.1 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -1.4 | 32.7 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -1.3 | 31.4 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -1.3 | 30.2 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -1.2 | 27.8 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -1.1 | 26.7 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -1.1 | 25.6 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -1.0 | 24.6 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -1.0 | 23.6 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -0.9 | 21.8 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E267 silent |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E271 silent |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E273 silent |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E276 silent |
| E277 2026-06-19 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E277 silent |
| E278 2026-06-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E278 silent |
| E279 2026-07-03 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E279 silent |
| E280 2026-07-11 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E280 silent |
| E281 2026-07-18 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E281 silent |
| E282 2026-07-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E282 silent |
| E283 2026-07-31 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E283 silent |
| E284 2026-08-08 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E284 silent |
| E285 2026-08-14 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E285 silent |
| E286 2026-08-21 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E286 silent |
| E287 2026-08-29 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E287 silent |