🌍 Dem sweep of Georgia runoffs cracks the market 30-40%
If Democrats win both Georgia Senate runoffs on Jan 5 (50-50 Senate, Harris tiebreak), the policy environment flips and 'you could see the market drop by 30-40% in the next six months.' Conditional bear call — the condition resolved TRUE on 2021-01-05, making this a live six-month bearish market prediction.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 28.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT SPY
expression · bearish macro
WRONG
result · return -17.0% · vs SPY -34.0%
2021-05-11
born 2020-11-11 (E12) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2020-11-11 → 2021-05-11 — first mention + 6-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT SPY (primary play). SPY rose 17.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -17.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +17.0%
→ vs SPY = -17.0 − (+17.0) = -34.0%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: +0.0% — did SPY move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.(SPY is itself the primary here — scored on return alone.)
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg | benchmark-primary: scored on R alone
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2020-11-11)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | SPY | etf | PRIMARY | the call is on 'the market' broadly; benchmark-primary scores on R alone |
Mention log newest first
Friedberg
macro 46% · n=40
· E12 (2020-11-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 1
▶ 32:51
SUPPORT
· horizon 6mo
“I'm very nervous about it. If the Democrats... actually get both of those seats to be blue, it's going to be a very different market environment. I mean, you could see the market drop by 30-40% in the next six months.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -14.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E12 2020-11-11 | init | +28.0 | 28.0 | E12 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x1) |
| E14 2020-12-04 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E14 silent |
| E15 2020-12-18 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E15 silent |
| E16 2021-01-08 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E16 silent |
| E17 2021-01-11 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E17 silent |
| E18 2021-01-23 | decay | -1.0 | 22.8 | E18 silent |
| E19 2021-01-30 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E19 silent |
| E20 2021-02-03 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E20 silent |
| E21 2021-02-06 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E21 silent |
| E22 2021-02-13 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E22 silent |
| E23 2021-02-20 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E23 silent |
| E24 2021-03-06 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E24 silent |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E28 silent |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E31 silent |