🌍 Dem sweep of Georgia runoffs cracks the market 30-40%
If Democrats win both Georgia Senate runoffs on Jan 5 (50-50 Senate, Harris tiebreak), the policy environment flips and 'you could see the market drop by 30-40% in the next six months.' Conditional bear call — the condition resolved TRUE on 2021-01-05, making this a live six-month bearish market prediction.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 25.9 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT SPY
expression · bearish macro
MISS
outcome · R -17.0% · α -34.0%
2021-05-11
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2020-11-11 → 2021-05-11 — first mention + 6-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT SPY (primary play). SPY rose 17.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -17.0% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +17.0%
→ α = -17.0 − (+17.0) = -34.0%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +0.0% — did SPY move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.(SPY is itself the primary here — scored on R alone.)
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg | benchmark-primary: scored on R alone
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2020-11-11)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | SPY | etf | PRIMARY | the call is on 'the market' broadly; benchmark-primary scores on R alone |
Mention log
Friedberg
macro w=0.93 · n=40
· E12 (2020-11-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 1
▶ 32:51
SUPPORT
· horizon 6mo
“I'm very nervous about it. If the Democrats... actually get both of those seats to be blue, it's going to be a very different market environment. I mean, you could see the market drop by 30-40% in the next six months.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -13.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E12 2020-11-11 | init | +25.9 | 25.9 | E12 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x1) [w=0.93] |
| E14 2020-12-04 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E14 silent |
| E15 2020-12-18 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E15 silent |
| E16 2021-01-08 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E16 silent |
| E17 2021-01-11 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E17 silent |
| E18 2021-01-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E18 silent |
| E19 2021-01-30 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E19 silent |
| E20 2021-02-03 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E20 silent |
| E21 2021-02-06 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E21 silent |
| E22 2021-02-13 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E22 silent |
| E23 2021-02-20 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E23 silent |
| E24 2021-03-06 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E24 silent |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E28 silent |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E31 silent |