📈 Texas Stock Exchange breaks the NYSE/Nasdaq listing duopoly

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2024-06-07 → 2025-06-07 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT NDAQ (primary play). NDAQ rose 47.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -47.6% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +13.6% → α = -47.6 − (+13.6) = -61.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: -34.0% — did NDAQ move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg w=0.87

1 scoring event · 53% of moves

+17.3 → net +17.3

Chamath w=0.84

1 scoring event · 47% of moves

+15.6 → net +15.6

⏳ decay drained -28.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one