📈 2026 is the year of mega-IPOs
Trillions of dollars of new public market cap as the IPO window reopens — SpaceX/Anduril/Stripe/Anthropic/OpenAI-class names file, reversing years of public-company shrinkage.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 51.0 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG IPO
expression · bullish equities
—
entry flag
days to eval · 2027-01-10
IS THIS A TRADE?
🚫 Not a trade — conviction 6.3 is DORMANT, below WATCH (45) and far from the GREEN entry bar (65). If more weighted voices pile on, it climbs; two mentions isn't conviction.
direction semantics: bullish = the plays below are expected to RISE if the thesis is right → expression is long.
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2026-01-10)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | IPO | etf | PRIMARY | Renaissance IPO ETF — direct new-listings exposure |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E267 (2026-04-03) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 22:26
OPPOSE
“I don't think we're going to have these quote-unquote blockbuster stream of IPOs. I think what happens is SpaceX is going to get out, they're going to do great. And then maybe the next one does good to great, then the next one will do good, and then the appetite runs out because you just can't absorb incrementally trillions of dollars of new demand.”
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E267 (2026-04-03) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 33:09
OPPOSE
“One of the things that's probably being underestimated at the moment is the liquidity crunch that's ahead for capital intensive technology businesses, given the conflict in the Middle East... a large chunk of it has historically come from Middle East sovereigns... there is so much pent up selling demand... I don't know who the big buyers are that everyone's expecting to show up.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -24.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E257 2026-01-10 | init | +38.9 | 38.9 | E257 born by Jason (annual_prediction x2) [w=0.97] |
| E257 2026-01-10 | reinforce | +12.2 | 51.0 | E257 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.89] |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -2.0 | 49.0 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -2.0 | 47.0 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -1.9 | 45.2 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -1.8 | 43.3 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -1.7 | 41.6 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -1.7 | 39.9 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -1.5 | 36.8 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -1.5 | 35.3 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | oppose | -10.1 | 25.3 | E267 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.84] |
| E267 2026-04-03 | oppose | -10.4 | 14.9 | E267 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.87] |
| E268 2026-04-10 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E268 silent |
| E269 2026-04-17 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E269 silent |
| E270 2026-04-24 | decay | -0.5 | 13.2 | E270 silent |
| E271 2026-05-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E271 silent |
| E272 2026-05-08 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E272 silent |
| E273 2026-05-15 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E273 silent |
| E274 2026-05-22 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E274 silent |
| E275 2026-05-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E275 silent |
| E276 2026-06-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E276 silent |
| E277 2026-06-19 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E277 silent |
| E278 2026-06-26 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E278 silent |
| E279 2026-07-03 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E279 silent |
| E280 2026-07-11 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E280 silent |
| E281 2026-07-18 | decay | -0.4 | 8.4 | E281 silent |
| E282 2026-07-24 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E282 silent |
| E283 2026-07-31 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E283 silent |
| E284 2026-08-08 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E284 silent |
| E285 2026-08-14 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E285 silent |
| E286 2026-08-21 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E286 silent |
| E287 2026-08-29 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E287 silent |
| E288 2026-09-04 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E288 silent |