⚡ Household energy resilience — every home becomes its own virtual power plant
With California utility rates ratcheting 7-11% a year and utility-scale infrastructure proving fragile (the 182MW battery installation that caught fire, the Texas grid), Chamath's claim is that the only real path to energy independence runs through 100 million households self-provisioning rather than through tens of utilities: rooftop solar, battery storage and potable water at the house, with the IRA's producer and deployment incentives making the hardware affordable and pulling adoption forward. The trade is the residential solar-plus-storage supply chain, not the utilities.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 40.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG ENPH
expression · bullish energy
MISS
outcome · R -57.1% · α -75.9%
2023-09-23
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-09-23 → 2023-09-23 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ENPH (primary play). ENPH fell 57.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -57.1% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +18.8% → α = -57.1 − (+18.8) = -75.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-09-23)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ENPH | stock | PRIMARY | Enphase microinverters plus IQ battery storage is the exact residential solar-plus-storage attach Chamath describes, and the purest listed read on household adoption |
| ▲ LONG | RUN | stock | adjacent | Sunrun installs and finances residential solar-plus-storage and is the direct monetizer of the IRA credits he says pull adoption forward |
| ▲ LONG | SEDG | stock | adjacent | SolarEdge inverters and residential batteries — second listed pure-play on the same household hardware attach |
| ▲ LONG | TAN | etf | adjacent | broad solar basket, dilutes the residential-vs-utility-scale distinction but captures the policy-driven demand pull |
Mention log
Chamath
energy w=0.55 · n=22
· E97 (2022-09-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 54:47
SUPPORT
“At the end of the day, there are tens of utilities in America, but there are 100 million households. And the only path to energy independence is to get every single 100 million household to be resilient, which means they need their own solar panels. They need battery storage. They need their own potable water.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -33.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E97 2022-09-23 | init | +22.9 | 22.9 | E97 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.55] |
| E97 2022-09-23 | reinforce | +17.3 | 40.3 | E97 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -1.6 | 38.6 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -1.5 | 37.1 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -1.5 | 35.6 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -1.4 | 34.2 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -1.4 | 32.8 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -1.3 | 31.5 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -1.2 | 29.0 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.9 | 22.7 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.9 | 21.8 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E146 silent |