🤖 We run out of compute again in 2025

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.46 · n=13 · E209 (2025-01-04) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 21:22 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“Inference compute is going to be the derivative winner... we're going to run out of GPUs, accelerators, compute in 2025 the same way we did in 2023. [Jason: 'So you're also long NVIDIA and chip makers?'] Absolutely.”

Cyan Banister (regular guest ×1.0) tech: 4 resolved, unproven · E210 (2025-01-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:21:19 SUPPORT

“We haven't even barely touched what AI is going to do and change and all of the various things that are going to come from it. And the early adopters cannot use Cloud without getting shut down because of scaling issues. And I don't think those are artificially created based on the type of investing I'm doing. And so I'm very bullish on Nvidia.”

Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E213 (2025-01-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 46:28 SUPPORT POLICY-ADJACENT

“Yeah, so there's a thing called Jevons Paradox, which kind of speaks to this concept. Satya actually tweeted about it, which is the economic concept where as the cost of a particular use goes down, the aggregate demand for all consumption of that thing goes up. So the basic idea is that as the price of AI gets cheaper and cheaper, we're going to want to use more and more of it. So you might actually get more spending on it in the aggregate.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.46 · n=13 · E221 (2025-03-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 11:07 SUPPORT

“So we're definitely not overbuilt yet. Like, since Deepsea came out, like, what has happened since Deepsea Car 1 came out as China is buying every GPU they can? One of the largest Chinese server manufacturers warned last night that there's about to be a shortage of GPUs in China. The price of memory, DRAM, goes up every day.”

Philippe Laffont (guest ×0.5) no tech track record · E227 (2025-05-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 28:47 SUPPORT

“CapEx is going up and everybody has a gigantic shortage of chips right now. That I know for sure from all of our private companies, public companies, there's a shortage of chip, a shortage of compute power.”

Thomas Laffont (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.17 · n=6 · E232 (2025-06-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 29:58 SUPPORT

“Look, I think to me, number one, I still think NVIDIA, right? I don't see the GPU kind of getting displaced. I see additional architectures kind of coming on board, right? And growing the market. But at the end of the day, all roads still lead to the GPU for all of these models.”

Gavin Baker (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.46 · n=13 · E238 (2025-08-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 19:28 SUPPORT

“So all of the dollars that are going into the ground are being used. We're not building ahead of demand. In fact, we're clearly still behind demand.”