🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year

Friedberg commodities w=0.75 · n=8 · E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:19:50 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“there is an expectation that we could see up to an 80% decline in planted acres in the Ukraine. ... Fertilizer prices through the roof because nat gas has gone up, so ammonia prices have gone up, potash exports are prohibited from Russia, so potash has gone up. ... for a lot of farmers, it's actually uneconomical, not just in Illinois, but around the world now, where the cost of the inputs, the cost of rent, the cost of production exceeds the expected profit coming out of the farm. And so farmers are not going to plant. ... That means there's going to be less production over the next year. That means famine hits us in a year.”

Friedberg commodities w=0.75 · n=8 · E84 (2022-06-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 41:58 REVERSAL

“wheat is down, I think, 30%, lumber is down 50%, gas prices are coming down. ... there are some of these, you know, commodity spikes that we've experienced over the past couple of quarters, particularly recently, that have had a significant part of the fueling effect on the inflationary trickle down into ultimately end products and whatnot. And those are coming down.”

Jason commodities: 4 resolved, unproven · E85 (2022-06-30) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:13:19 SUPPORT · horizon 6mo

“if this war is never ending and the famine and the impact on 40 million people or something like that, that Friedberg predicted is actually going to happen in the next six months”

Sacks commodities: 4 resolved, unproven · E86 (2022-07-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 57:51 SUPPORT

“So they got smart on energy. And now they're about to repeat their same dumb mistake of basically prohibiting this area where they have an enormous natural advantage, which is food production.”

Friedberg commodities w=0.75 · n=8 · E86 (2022-07-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 55:17 SUPPORT

“But meanwhile, these governments are in a frenzy to solve the climate change problem. And, you know, they're going to start to pass these laws that really hurt the livelihoods of ag producers.”

Chamath commodities w=0.80 · n=10 · E87 (2022-07-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 12:04 SUPPORT

“The problem with going organic and organic fertilizer was all of the small farms shut down. All of the large farms had 20 to 30% crop yield reductions. The prices of food went crazy.”

Sacks commodities: 4 resolved, unproven · E87 (2022-07-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 13:49 SUPPORT

“So, the result of that was that overall production, agricultural production, fell by a third and rice production fell by 43% and rice is, you know, the biggest staple in the country. So, now you got people there starving or going hungry.”

Friedberg commodities w=0.75 · n=8 · E90 (2022-08-05) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 26:49 SUPPORT

“There's an emerging problem with food insecurity in Africa, South Asia, around the world.”

Friedberg commodities w=0.75 · n=8 · E94 (2022-09-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 58:25 SUPPORT

“And then obviously European farmers are having issues. And combine that with the geopolitical issues of the Ukraine crisis and the natural gas pricing being so high, one third of ammonia plants have been shut down in Europe. And they think that ammonia and fertilizer production may drop by as much as one half in Europe because of the crisis.”

Friedberg commodities w=0.75 · n=8 · E96 (2022-09-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:17:12 SUPPORT

“Yeah, we have a massive starvation problem. The UN told told everyone, I mean, no one writes about this stuff because it's seemingly not interesting in mainstream media, which I don't freaking understand. But the UN thinks that 345 million people now are incrementally marching towards starvation.”

Jason commodities: 4 resolved, unproven · E96 (2022-09-17) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:16:45 OPPOSE

“It hasn't turned out to be disastrous yet.”