📈 CrowdStrike's outage does lasting damage to its franchise
Bricking 8.5 million Windows machines is not a technical blip but a trust event for a company whose whole product is trust: enterprises that did not even know they were running the agent are now auditing it out, and high-profile customers (Musk's companies, Craft's own IT) are removing it. Bearish CrowdStrike's renewal and net-new pipeline versus rival endpoint and cloud-security vendors.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 26.6 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT CRWD
expression · bearish equities
MISS
outcome · R -82.7% · α -101.1%
2025-07-26
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
MSFT ·
SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software
LONG
GREEN 71.0
← stronger than this idea (4.1)
PANW ·
AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle
LONG
WATCH 55.2
← stronger than this idea (4.1)
CRWD ·
AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle
LONG
WATCH 55.2
← stronger than this idea (4.1)
MSFT ·
Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized)
LONG
EMBER 26.6
← stronger than this idea (4.1)
MSFT ·
Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars
LONG
EMBER 20.6
← stronger than this idea (4.1)
MSFT ·
Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital
LONG
DORMANT 14.0
← stronger than this idea (4.1)
also touching these tickers, same direction: ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay 9 (MSFT)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-07-26 → 2025-07-26 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT CRWD (primary play). CRWD rose 82.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -82.7% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +18.5%
→ α = -82.7 − (+18.5) = -101.1%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -64.2% — did CRWD move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-07-26)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | CRWD | stock | PRIMARY | direct expression of the trust and churn hit |
| ▼ SHORT | MSFT | stock | adjacent | Defender is the default fallback for displaced Windows-estate customers |
| ▼ SHORT | PANW | stock | adjacent | most likely beneficiary of endpoint share shifting away |
Mention log
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -22.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E189 2024-07-26 | init | +26.6 | 26.6 | E189 born by Sacks (positioning x2) [w=0.89] |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.2 | 4.1 | E236 silent |