+0.0
net board stance
what this means
28.5
-1.0% · close 2026-09-08
-12% / -0% / +10%
1m / 3m / 12m
-90%
vs SPY since 2021-02-13
50%
of 52w range · -15.0% off high
2/4
hit rate as primary · α +9
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on JETS
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 2 hit / 1 partial / 1 miss over 4 closed windows — credit 0.62, average α +8.8. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 Delta variant is a non-event — no reopening reversal | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -9.1% | -20.1 | 2022-01-03 |
| 🌍 COVID a distant memory by summer 2021 | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +48.6% | +20.3 | 2021-06-19 |
| 📈 Post-vaccine travel demand blows the roof off | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -2.2% | -9.1 | 2022-04-17 |
| 🌍 Conditioned fear keeps behaviour suppressed after vaccination | ▼ SHORT | primary | PARTIAL | +11.6% | -2.1 | 2022-02-20 |
| 🌍 Delta is not the last one — more variants this fall, a tough winter | ▼ SHORT | primary | HIT | +30.0% | +37.3 | 2022-06-25 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding JETS, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
No, I think getting Omicron helped you because it enabled you to see that this, for you, was largely a nothing burger. And so you could come out of your house and start acting normal. I think there's a lot of people all over the country who are like that.
You know what? If you go to the ski slopes, there is nobody with a mask on and nobody's enforcing it and no restaurants. And this is in Democratic country. Everybody has moved on at this point.
It says a majority of voters, 55% say COVID should be treated as an endemic disease, while a majority of Democrats say it should be continued to be treated as an emergency. ... The Monmouth poll just came out where 89% of Republicans, 71% of of independents say that it's time we accept COVID is here to stay and we need to get on with our lives. ... So the reality is that the rest of the country, I think, has moved on. It's ready to move on.
We could live with this variant of Covid, Omicron. ... But in large swaths of the country, we're not choosing to live with it. We're at each other's throats about these vaccine mandates, these other restrictions and school closures.
And thank God, it feels like Omicron is, you know, leading us out of this.
Unless something escapes from the lab again, I think that we're going to be okay. I think this is the end of the end.
My biggest optimism is just that Omicron is a much less virulent virus, and it sweeps through the population, and we slowly see this pandemic becoming less severe.
Some studies show as much as 40 times more infectious than Delta, highly contagious, extreme, very much airborne. It's going everywhere. ... There's no end. There's no end in sight.
There's no end in sight, but it is less deadly. And so it could be mass immunizing. ... The public has decided, I think, we're willing to have a thousand people die a day or a certain number of people die today to get back to normal.
I'll make a prediction for 2022, okay? I will predict that even the blue areas of the country are going to have fatigue with all these COVID restrictions. And so even the blue state governors who are addicted to their state of emergencies and their restrictions and lockdowns and closures and mask mandates, even they are going to have to give them up in 2022 because the country is sick and tired of this. ... I think eventually these governors who are holding on to their power and their restrictions are going to lose in 2022
there could be this thing happening where Omicron is the you know, the the air bomb that gets dropped, clears the room and then it's all over
They have record cases right now, but deaths and they're also done great with the vaccine
what's really important now is how policy makers are going to respond to this, right? Because there is a press cycle, there is a bit of a hysteria, everyone's asking me about it, everyone's freaked out about it, everyone's worrying about it. ... And the question is, are we about to face more lockdowns and things that are going to be adverse to the economy and how are markets going to react? ... And that seems pretty scary right now.
So look, one thing that seems pretty certain, this variant is going to be everywhere fast. ... The R0 on this could be as high as 40, which is, you know, measles by comparison is 12 to 13 ... it's got incredibly good evasiveness around people that have the vaccine or have had the virus. So it's going to spread like crazy.
Listen, guys, we're not going back to lockdowns no matter what happens with the Omicron thing. We're not going to do school closures. ... What you're going to see is Omicron will be everywhere very soon. There's nothing that policymakers can do to stop it.
I think this whole thing is a complete fucking nothing burger. ... It's even more impotent than Delta. ... There may be a variant that matters, but this is not it. ... So again, this whole thing is a nothing burger. Let's just move on. It's stupid.
My point is, if you have a combination of all these things, this is like a flu, which means that there'll be less ability for folks to not show up to work, which means that most of the economy really will get back going.
But I think on this specific issue, I think that it's unconscionable to be in a situation where we are fighting basically a time function, where at a certain amount of time, you're going to have a variant that is basically will overcome all the vaccines we have, will kill enormous numbers of people, including the vaccinated, will literally shut the economy down. And that's a probabilistic event now.
We now know, looking at from what different states did last year, that they don't make a difference. So there's no reason to go back to that policy.
And I think as we talked about last time, we saw the market start to react to the potential of that on Monday. ... But I think the conventional wisdom is not that many people are going to die. Therefore, we're not going to see, you know, political leaders force restrictions that are kind of going to damage the economy.
I'm not changing my behaviors. I made my I made my decision. My risk assessment is if I get it, then I'm doubly protected. And I'm not going to wind up in the hospital. I'm going to focus all my energy on riding my bike and taking my kids out and having a good time. I'm not going back in lockdown.
This is not a big deal. I mean, for me, okay, it was not a big deal. It was like a mild cold. I am not going to change my I'm going to go back to normal, like my pre COVID behavior. And I would tell you, like, if you're double vax, I don't think you need to be that afraid of this.
The point is, guys, Friedberg is right. These things aren't going away. We have a cohort of people who will continue to allow this thing to become worse than it has to be. And I think that there will be economic repercussions and discrimination against those people for that. And I think economically, we are going to take a step back because politicians will try to slow the economy down again.
So, as that starts to happen, the implications for the economy, I think, are pretty significant. Because I think people, whether there's a policy change or not, people are going to get scared again. And people, if we're not kind of enforcing economic lockdown, people will go into social lockdown. And we're going to revisit, you know, more of the behavior we saw over the past year, where people are going to be nervous to travel, people are going to be nervous to fly, people are going to be nervous to go to restaurants. And, you know, the downstream consequences of everyone kind of locking up again, even if the government doesn't enforce lockups, could be pretty catastrophic.
I think you're right and I think the teachers unions, the NEA and the AFT are already putting all sorts of demands on going back to school.