📈 Model Y becomes the best-selling car in America

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-05-26 → 2024-05-26 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▲ LONG TSLA (primary play). TSLA fell 7.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -7.2% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +27.9% → α = -7.2 − (+27.9) = -35.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath w=0.84

2 scoring events · 70% of moves

+41.4 → net +41.4

Jason w=0.97

1 scoring event · 30% of moves

+17.3 → net +17.3

⏳ decay drained -46.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one