◢ ALL-IN ALPHA research only · never trades · 2026-09-10

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🌍 COVID crash goes deeper — no V-shaped recovery

The March 2020 crash extends toward a ~50% total correction and cannot come roaring back: repo-market seizures, LP portfolio rebalancing forcing venture markdowns, and levered funds being margin-called mean the capital-markets damage persists even if the virus is contained.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 61.4 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▼ SHORT SPY
expression · bearish macro
MISS
outcome · R -65.5% · α -131.0%
2021-03-19
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2020-03-19 → 2021-03-19 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▼ SHORT SPY (primary play). SPY rose 65.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -65.5% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +65.5% → α = -65.5 − (+65.5) = -131.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
    Stock-selection read: +0.0% — did SPY move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
    (SPY is itself the primary here — scored on R alone.)
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    ▶ MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: nobody | opposed: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | benchmark-primary: scored on R alone

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2020-03-19)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT SPYetf PRIMARY pure index-level crash-continuation call; benchmark-primary scores on R alone

Mention log

Chamath
Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E1 (2020-03-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 41:24 SUPPORT
“It cannot come roaring back... when the repo market ceases and there's no way for you to either buy or sell commercial paper... the markets start to really seize and capitulate, and everybody is just losing enormous amounts of money... these LPs are going to have to portfolio rebalance, and they're going to have to force venture capitalists to mark down their books.”
Jason
Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E1 (2020-03-19) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:09 SUPPORT
“The stock market has gone down another 20% since then... We are looking like this is going to be a 50% correction or something like that. We're now well past a 30 plus percent.”
Chamath
Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E2 (2020-04-11) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:03:58 SUPPORT
“No, we're not [in a V-shaped recovery]... The market is completely decoupled from Main Street. And so what Wall Street does is irrelevant right now... if you have 16, 17, 20, 22% unemployment, you could put a prancing dog [up] and he'll beat Trump.”
Sacks
Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E2 (2020-04-11) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 45:53 SUPPORT
“I sort of swing between the U and the L... if it lasts longer, it's going to slip out of their hands. And the result is going to be a cascade of defaults and bankruptcies and effectively a great unraveling of our economy.”
Jason
Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E2 (2020-04-11) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:03:55 OPPOSE
“Right now we are in a V-shaped recovery. The market has come back... keep the faith, keep investing, keep starting companies. Never a bad time to start a great company in my mind.”
Sacks
Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E4 (2020-06-20) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:08:28 OPPOSE
“The economy, we're seeing a V-shaped recovery, which I think is surprising all of us. And if that holds up and we get past the civil unrest that we've had... the situation could look very different in five months.”
Chamath
Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E24 (2021-03-06) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 2:12 REVERSAL
“But I would just encourage us all to remember that we were in some pretty dark days in March of last year as well. ... When you looked at it by the end of the year, it looked amazing.”
Sacks
Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E24 (2021-03-06) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 3:04 OPPOSE
“I would just add to that the markets are looking pretty grim for tech stocks right now. But this all started because of a really great jobs report showing that the economy is roaring back.”
Jason
Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E24 (2021-03-06) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 12:41 OPPOSE
“it looks like this recession is going to be recovered. And we're going to we're already back in business in such a short period of time compared to what happened in the Great Recession and the.com boom.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath
Chamath w=1.06
3 scoring events · 50% of moves
+43.7 / -12.9 → net +30.8
Sacks
Sacks w=1.12
3 scoring events · 26% of moves
+9.8 / -19.4 → net -9.6
Jason
Jason w=1.27
3 scoring events · 24% of moves
+14.3 / -12.2 → net +2.2

⏳ decay drained -23.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E1 2020-03-19 init +37.2 37.2 E1 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=1.06]
E1 2020-03-19 reinforce +14.3 51.5 E1 Jason support x1 (new voice) [w=1.27]
E2 2020-04-11 reinforce +9.8 61.4 E2 Sacks support x1 (new voice) [w=1.12]
E2 2020-04-11 oppose -12.2 49.2 E2 Jason opposes x1 [w=1.27]
E2 2020-04-11 reinforce +6.5 55.7 E2 Chamath support x1 [w=1.06]
E4 2020-06-20 oppose -10.8 44.9 E4 Sacks opposes x1 [w=1.12]
E5 2020-07-11 decay -1.8 43.1 E5 silent
E6 2020-07-31 decay -1.7 41.4 E6 silent
E7 2020-09-09 decay -1.7 39.7 E7 silent
E8 2020-09-19 decay -1.6 38.1 E8 silent
E9 2020-10-03 decay -1.5 36.6 E9 silent
E10 2020-10-16 decay -1.5 35.1 E10 silent
E11 2020-11-04 decay -1.4 33.7 E11 silent
E12 2020-11-11 decay -1.3 32.4 E12 silent
E14 2020-12-04 decay -1.3 31.1 E14 silent
E15 2020-12-18 decay -1.2 29.8 E15 silent
E16 2021-01-08 decay -1.2 28.6 E16 silent
E17 2021-01-11 decay -1.1 27.5 E17 silent
E18 2021-01-23 decay -1.1 26.4 E18 silent
E19 2021-01-30 decay -1.1 25.3 E19 silent
E20 2021-02-03 decay -1.0 24.3 E20 silent
E21 2021-02-06 decay -1.0 23.4 E21 silent
E22 2021-02-13 decay -0.9 22.4 E22 silent
E23 2021-02-20 decay -0.9 21.5 E23 silent
E24 2021-03-06 reversal -12.9 8.6 E24 Chamath flips
E24 2021-03-06 oppose -8.6 0.0 E24 Sacks opposes x2 [w=1.12]
E24 2021-03-06 oppose · 0.0 E24 Jason opposes x2 [w=1.27]
E25 2021-03-13 decay · 0.0 E25 silent