+0.0
net board stance
what this means
138.51
-3.0% · close 2026-09-08
+38% / +18% / -58%
1m / 3m / 12m
-47%
vs SPY since 2024-08-23
20%
of 52w range · -61.5% off high
1/1
hit rate as primary · α +36
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on MSTR
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 1.0, average α +36.2. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🪙 Bitcoin bid as the escape hatch from dollar debasement | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -31.5% | -45.2 | 2022-02-20 |
| 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold | ▲ LONG | adjacent | PARTIAL | +33.9% | +1.9 | 2025-11-30 |
| 📈 MicroStrategy's convert-funded Bitcoin flywheel breaks at scale | ▼ SHORT | primary | HIT | +51.0% | +36.2 | 2025-12-07 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding MSTR, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
So we have the reserve and we have the stockpile. So the reserve is just Bitcoin. The goal is long-term preservation. Think of it as like a digital Fort Knox for digital gold. We want to put the digital gold in there. We want to keep it secure. We never want to sell it.
Listen, we're living in an age of meme stocks and people selling convertible notes to buy Bitcoin for their treasury.
So if you actually were to sit down and do the Black Scholes modeling of the value of the synthetic call option that he's selling you with the convertible note, there's a reason people are paying for it. They think that there's value there. So there's certainly something to the structure that makes sense.
JO
Joe Lonsdale
support ×1
▼ on
📈 MicroStrategy's convert-funded Bitcoin flywheel breaks at scale
E206 · 2024-12-07
▶ 43:18
And I think the risks around how he's accessing this is actually very unusual and does scare me a bit
it will get to a point where it is, it is too big for the size of his company. And then yeah, maybe he can over collateralize it and, you know, have $10 in Bitcoin for every dollar of debt. But then like the magic money creation machine that, you know, I see discussed on X, breaks down
JO
Joe Lonsdale
support ×2
▲ on
🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold
E206 · 2024-12-07
▶ 43:18
Listen, I am very bullish Bitcoin. I love all the energy of our society around it
But I do think Bitcoin will at some point be a serious threat to the US dollar. And that just is what it is
It should be kind of store of value and alternative. It's just going to take over gold
No, it's a totally correlated asset. I mean, there will be a point, and it's probably in our lifetime where it is an independent asset and a non-speculative store of value. There will be that day, but that day is not now.
it's going to be gold, it's going to be Bitcoin
I said the breakout asset was going to be Bitcoin
And if you look at what this price chart could indicate, is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation, it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets.
this will do more than McDonald's accepting Bitcoin because this is the first time like a western democratic state is seizing people's funds like in an incredibly unfair, unnecessary way, which is just going to have more people say, you know what, maybe I should keep some of my net worth out of the government's purview if they're going to seize it anyway.
I've structured it so that I don't hold any Bitcoin personally myself because I don't want to have the pressure and the risk of keys and coins and wallets and this and that. But I still really believe in Bitcoin in the long term.
So much for them being uncorrelated. ... Bitcoin is going to be uncorrelated, so the market is going to go up.
And this is where Bitcoin feels to a lot of people like a great equalizer. And yeah, I'm not a huge, I'm not a Bitcoin maximalist or anything. But I think that's where the appeal arises
And it's too institutionalized now. So, you know, there's just way too many organized pools of capital that are now speculating inside of this entire ecosystem. ... So when you have people in high finance, you know, really vested in this thing and you have $3 trillion of value that will go to $6 trillion and then go to $10 trillion, this can't go away.
The thesis there was just that crypto would go more institutional, and I think we're starting to see that now, where endowments and so on are realizing they need to have some portion, maybe 1% or 2% of their portfolio in crypto.
And it just does make the Bitcoin. In hindsight, it does look like they shut down Bitcoin a couple of months before making these actions. So your point, David, they probably anticipated that people would start shipping their money out using Bitcoin. And so they banned Bitcoin.
if you were a Chinese billionaire looking at this landscape, your priority has got to be to get some wealth outside the country beyond the control of the CCP. You're gonna be buying Bitcoin, you're gonna be trying to get your money overseas.
I think you can really judge this based upon how much it's being pumped by the people who own it. And they are absolutely dogged, religious about this. It's like talking to a person who's met Jesus, and now everybody has to be a Christian. ... And so I think it's going to be there's going to be a dogfight here where governments are not going to easily give up their control of this. And there's many ways they can make a bunch of red tape to slow this down.
But the thing that jumps out at me about all the critics of Bitcoin, and I'm not like a pumper or whatever, but I do own some, is the thing that all these critics don't seem to understand is the technology. ... As long as that remains true, then Bitcoin can serve as money if everyone believes in it.
I think the reason why we're seeing Bitcoin go to the moon right now is people are starting to speculate on the idea that this might be the future world reserve currency because it's not subject to manipulation by central banks.
Yeah, mine is clearly Bitcoin as well because I was reporting on it when it was 10 cents. ... And then my wife bought it at under 200
There is one thing that above all others, which is sadly also in my portfolio. ... that's Bitcoin. At one point, we controlled low single digits, mid single digits of the entire float. And had I held on to that, that's talking about a mid-deca billion dollar position.