🪙 Spot ETF approvals extend past Bitcoin to Ethereum
Chamath's read of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval is that it creates legitimate cause to approve a few others, with an Ethereum ETF next - crypto assets becoming part of the traditional financial fabric rather than a one-off Bitcoin event. Bullish ETH specifically on the same ETF-flow mechanism that repriced BTC.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG cg:ethereum
expression · bullish crypto
MISS
outcome · R -43.4% · α -57.4%
2025-03-08
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-03-08 → 2025-03-08 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG cg:ethereum (primary play). cg:ethereum fell 43.4% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -43.4% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +14.0% → α = -43.4 − (+14.0) = -57.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-03-08)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | cg:ethereum | crypto | PRIMARY | the asset an ETH spot ETF would hold |
| ▲ LONG | COIN | stock | adjacent | custodian and volume beneficiary of a widening US crypto ETF complex |
Mention log
Chamath
crypto w=1.00 · n=20
· E169 (2024-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:22:26
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“People are now speculating that there's going to be an Ethereum ETF that gets approved as well, because if you approve one, there's probably legitimate cause to approve a few others. So these things are becoming part of the financial fabric, and I think that that should not be underestimated.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -30.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E169 2024-03-08 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E169 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E218 silent |