📈 Pro sports franchise valuations have not peaked
Cuban, months after selling ~73% of the Mavericks at a ~$3.5B valuation, argues franchise values still have room to run: the new collective bargaining agreement forces teams into adjacent revenue lines (casino and real-estate development wrapped around the arena, media rights) that can carry a single NBA franchise toward $20B. Listed pro-sports franchise equity is therefore not late-cycle and still trades below eventual private-market marks.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 17.5 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG MSGS
expression · bullish equities
PARTIAL
outcome · R +8.1% · α -11.2%
2025-10-03
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-10-03 → 2025-10-03 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG MSGS (primary play). MSGS rose 8.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +8.1% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +19.3% → α = +8.1 − (+19.3) = -11.2% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: nobody | proxy-sensitive: BATRK→MISS (+3.8%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-10-03)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | MSGS | stock | PRIMARY | listed pure-play holder of an NBA and NHL franchise; trades at a discount to franchise NAV |
| ▲ LONG | BATRK | stock | adjacent | Atlanta Braves Holdings is the other listed pro-sports franchise comp with attached real-estate development |
Mention log
MA
Mark Cuban
(guest ×0.5)
no equities track record
· E198 (2024-10-03) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:33:15
SUPPORT
“I don't think they've peaked yet because it for the reasons I just mentioned, if we're able to build a Venetian type casino, and Dallas with an American Airlines Center in the middle of it, the valuation is $20 billion.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -14.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E198 2024-10-03 | init | +17.5 | 17.5 | E198 born by Mark Cuban (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.50] |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.5 | 13.2 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.1 | 3.4 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.1 | 3.2 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.1 | 3.0 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.1 | 2.9 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.1 | 2.8 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.1 | 2.7 | E245 silent |