🌍 China's growth engine breaks - property bust plus bank runs

“So a lot of the conflict and the things that are starting to fall apart, which may just be the tip of the iceberg, is a function of a fundamentally slowing economy and the forecast and the outlook for an economy that doesn't have the drivers it's had historically.”

“No, I think it's more like 2008, Jason. I think it's more like the financial crisis in 2008 that was driven by the real estate bubble. They've got their own real estate bubble, which is collapsing there.”

“And these are regional banks, to be clear. This isn't the national banks. And so, at the same time, the mortgage boycotts are happening at 301 unfinished developments in 91 cities.”

“And it looks like they have decided that that's coming to an end, and they're going to, you know, deconstruct all of these things. So, you know, the Chinese growth engine is coming back.”

“We always think that it's a linear line and that it's super dogmatic and fixed, but there's certainly responsiveness. And the release of the lockdowns in Guangzhou and Beijing this week seems to have been a pretty good indication that when things do get, when the tides do change, leadership there seems to respond, not always, but enough to kind of keep things going.”

“China has real problems. There is no question about it. They have got demographic problems, they have got problems in the banking system, they have got a real estate bubble.”

“China economically, I don't know where the demand is going to come from. You know, on the same time that their internal demand is imploding, they're creating all these export controls that I think are not going to actually help them solve the problem because it just accelerates Western economies' desire to delever from China.”