🌍 Factory exodus from China to Vietnam and India as Chinese wages hit $6/hr
Jason's operator read: Chinese factory labour is now over $6/hr against $3 in Vietnam and less in India, and portfolio companies are already moving production to India, Vietnam and Japan. The cheap-labour manufacturing base relocates out of China to lower-cost Asia. Friedberg takes the other side - China does not concede the edge, it upgrades the factories to automated, higher-value output subsidised by cheap nuclear electricity.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 29.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG VNM
expression · bullish macro
MISS
outcome · R -0.3% · α -16.6%
2023-07-22
window closed
also touching these tickers, same direction: Apple relocates US-bound iPhone assembly to India on the stated 18-month timeline 8 (INDA)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG VNM (primary play). VNM fell 0.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -0.3% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.3% → α = -0.3 − (+16.3) = -16.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: INDA→PARTIAL (+8.1%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-07-22)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | VNM | etf | PRIMARY | Vietnam equities, the named first destination for relocating factories |
| ▲ LONG | INDA | etf | adjacent | India equities, the other named destination |
Mention log
Jason
macro w=1.27 · n=30
· E88 (2022-07-22) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:08:44
SUPPORT
“And that's why you're seeing a lot of folks, I don't know if you're seeing it in your portfolios, but we've seen a lot of folks looking at India, Vietnam, and moving factories there, and obviously Japan has been incentivizing people to move out of it.”
Friedberg
macro w=0.93 · n=40
· E88 (2022-07-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:09:05
OPPOSE
“China's not going to just lose their manufacturing edge. They're not just going to say, hey, we give up, let everyone go to Vietnam. They're going to try and upgrade the capability of those factories”
Chamath
macro w=1.06 · n=47
· E107 (2022-12-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 53:40
SUPPORT
· horizon 240mo
“And then you look at other countries like Nigeria or India, who are in, you know, at the beginning of what could be a multi-decade boom, because you have 20-year-olds that will be entering the workforce, you know, they'll effectively work for less than their older counterparts, right? So then there'll be an incentive then to bring work on shore into those countries.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -27.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E88 2022-07-22 | init | +25.3 | 25.3 | E88 born by Jason (sentiment x2) [w=1.27] |
| E88 2022-07-22 | oppose | -11.1 | 14.2 | E88 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.93] |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | reinforce | +22.2 | 29.3 | E107 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=1.06] |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.4 | 10.2 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.4 | 9.4 | E137 silent |