+12.7
net board stance
what this means
53.85
-1.9% · close 2026-09-08
-5% / -0% / -12%
1m / 3m / 12m
-29%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
22%
of 52w range · -18.1% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 China's automated manufacturing base outruns US reindustrialization | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 25.4 | +12.7 | — | 193d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on MCHI
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +23.9% | +28.6 | 2022-07-30 |
| 🌍 China tips into outright deflation and drags global demand | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | PARTIAL | +6.2% | -15.1 | 2024-08-11 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding MCHI, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
And China has both manufacturing, productivity, materials advantage over the United States on that front. So it's not about having the best model. It's about having a supply chain that can support their ambitions in warfare.
AA
Aaron Levie
support ×2
▲ on
🌍 China's automated manufacturing base outruns US reindustrialization
E226 · 2025-05-02
▶ 37:53
And so you just stimulate a manufacturing boom in the country. We incentivize automation across the manufacturing. We use that as a competitive weapon to go and compete with the sort of lower cost labor that happens internationally.
China, ultimately, if they can make new energy systems cheaper than the United States, scale them faster, they will ultimately have much cheaper, much higher volumes of electricity, which gives them the advantage of manufacturing and production and transportation and everything. And that's where the economic advantage will ultimately accrue to them.
who's going to do this work if we're going to be deporting millions of people and we have the lowest unemployment of our lifetimes and we have automation coming to these factories and Americans don't want to take these jobs historically? How is this all going to work? It seems a bit farcical to me that we're going to bring these things back.
I would say probably the biggest thing would be whether the US can re-industrialize to some extent so that we're not completely dependent for our supply chains on a potentially hostile adversary.
In the last 20 years, they've built 30,000 miles of high-speed rail. In the next 15 years, they're going to add more electricity production capacity than the United States times who has today. There's nothing short of ambition coming out of China. And it's what we're lacking.
as we know, the way the Chinese operate when it comes to kind of industrialization is they can move fast, they can move big, they can move heavy, they can dedicate resources, they can dedicate an entirely vertically integrated supply chain to achieving an objective. So this will end up being kind of, I think, the big race over the next couple of years.
China has 50 million homes ahead of schedule. 50 million additional supply that can house 150 million people. So as acute as our issues are, the China issue might be much, much seismic.
You also have what looks like a crash happening in China. The Chinese government took some actions to prop up the stock market there, which is a pretty negative signal.
And China just saw CPI down three-tenths of one percent in the month this week. Annualized, that's over three and a half percent. That is a major problem for China. So I think you have some yellow flags here, right? That say, do we have too much tightening? If one of the global engines of growth is experiencing this level of disinflation, that's going to impact the global economy, global demand, et cetera.
They can take a five- ten- and thirty-year outlook and make a plan and invest against it. It's what they did from the beginning. I wouldn't count them out, but there's certainly a lot of challenges they're facing right now.
It's really a self-own. I mean, they've moved away from the policies that have made them so successful economically over the last 40 years. And then on top of that, you got this debt crisis and this housing crisis.
China is in chaos right now, apparently, in terms of slowing economic growth, bank protests, mortgage protests, exactly what I predicted last year when you guys were talking about China was going to dunk on us.
China's input cost has been capped. And so they don't suffer the same rate of inflation that the rest of us do. ... we allowed our largest competitive frenemy, if you will, to basically be able to, you know, drive their entire economy at 30 to 40% of the discount to what we have to pay to do the same.
China is on the precipice of this because of this one China policy. I think the stat that I saw, which is stunning, is there's 1.2 billion people in China? 1.4? By 2100, it's going to be around 600 million. If that's true, the point is just that there's a real issue.
CL
Claire Cormier Thielke
oppose ×3
▼ on
🌍 China's crackdown spirals its own economy down
E82 · 2022-05-24
▶ 25:29
I think there was a concern that there would be an entire meltdown of the full Chinese economy, which is not what we feel on the ground. I think, if anything, it's created a set of opportunities to really level set, especially on the living sector. It's really accelerated some policies to make it easier to build and to create rental housing ... China is only as urbanized as the US was in about 1950
Russia will become a Chinese client ... those resources are going to flow on a conveyor belt, on a belt and road conveyor belt from Moscow to Beijing, and they're going to fuel the Chinese economy
China is still a fundamentally export driven economy, of which 35% just alone goes to the United States. When you add in Europe and other OECD countries, it's almost 60%. ... I think the idea that all of a sudden, Russia will be able to backdoor all of these things through China into the rest of the world, I think is not really realistic.
So this weekend, China cut interest rates. ... Well, if you are cutting rates, it is because you are worried about the other problem, which is that the economy is basically turned over and you need to become more accommodating.
We have a looming debt crisis in China. We have supply chain shortages.
I think J. Cal is right in the sense, I don't think it's gonna be like a binary decision where all of a sudden everyone just stops doing business in China, but they're gonna be hedging their bets.
I disagree with you. No, I disagree with you. And the reason I disagree with you is... ... Because you know what, if you're coming from China, and you can only make a billion versus 45 billion, I think you still take the shot. ... Everybody, guess what? Because if you want a shred of fucking lithium, if you want a battery, if you want nickel, if you want anything to happen, you need to work with China.
I think this is going to be like a spiraling down of their economy. I don't think it's going to spiral up. ... I think they just throttled innovation and they just shot themselves in both feet. I think they're going to regret this decision.