BXP, Inc.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 📈 The CRE refinancing wall bites — buildings go back to the banks E241 · 2025-08-29 ▶ 1:07:02

There's 2.2 trillion of CRE debt maturing before 2028... what I'm seeing is that some real estate developers are starting to lose buildings now... a building that was cash flowing, at that higher interest rate it might have negative cash flow... I do think that there is a lot of risk in the economy in this sector because of this wall of commercial real estate debt that's coming due.

NVIDIA, last I checked, is doing pretty damn well, and Jensen is on the record as saying he doesn't give a shit about where you work... And so I guess I'm just skeptical of flat shoulds in this space.

People just said a lot of s**t during the pandemic. Do you remember, it's like, oh, handshakes are going to be over, business travel is going to be over, every company is going to be fully remote... I would say Stripe broadly is in a pretty similar spot where it was beforehand, which is most people go into an office.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority E216 · 2025-02-21 ▶ 28:33

So I think it's important to get the kind of mentoring you get by being in an office. And in the absence of that, I think these young people, like Jamie said, are totally lost.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority E216 · 2025-02-21 ▶ 23:36

leaders can lead from the front, speak directly and say, this is the way things are going to be. My job is not to coddle my employees.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 DOGE lease terminations flood the office market and hit federal landlords E213 · 2025-01-31 ▶ 1:36:20

Well, that seems like the crazy thing that nobody is thinking about, which is in this push, this physical built inventory has so much value built up in the 401Ks of individuals to the balance sheets of huge pension funds. But that value could be very different.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 📈 DOGE lease terminations flood the office market and hit federal landlords E213 · 2025-01-31 ▶ 1:18:14

The government is such a reliable client that they're all on one-year leases. So people don't do what they do with startups, which is force them to do five or ten years, because they know, hey, this company could go out of business. They're just like, yeah, yeah, we're just on a rolling year over year lease, so you can actually just cut these. It's going to flood the market.

I mean, what I'm hearing about these buildings is that they are super, super empty, like next level empty. And let's just say, I'm really glad I don't hold it like I'm an owner that has a bunch of leases to the federal government right now.

I think it's great that Daniel Lurie is mayor of San Francisco, and he's putting smart people around him. And they're trying to rethink, first some attacking these core problems, but also how do we make San Francisco fun again? So I love things like congestion pricing. I think now is the time to try every new innovation that you ever thought of and see what sticks

Chamath oppose ×3 ▲ on 📈 San Francisco's governance flip turns the city around E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 57:26

I just think that the city is very poorly managed. And just the quality of many cities are poorly managed. And I think that there's a common through line in these poorly managed cities. All the things that you say, there's no will to do. There's no will to keep crime at bay. There's no will to make usable spaces for people. There's no will to invest in the arts. So what do you expect, right? There's more money collected by these cities, but there's just more total grift, corruption and waste.

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 📈 San Francisco's governance flip turns the city around E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 57:37

And this budget needs to get put under control. San Francisco spends 1.5x per capita of what New York City spends. And that's something that Daniel and his team have said they're going to address sort of like their own doge. And there's a team going in there to address this. So I'm really bullish on what's going to happen with the city.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 San Francisco's governance flip turns the city around E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 57:03

I'm bullish on the San Francisco turnaround because I think Daniel Lurie getting elected mayor was huge. And this doesn't get really as much attention, but it's very important.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 54:17

It's much more productive because I think innovation happens as a team. You need collaboration and it's way easier to do that when everyone is together in the same place.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 52:40

And it turns out the best of our companies, like when I rank my portfolio, the ones that are doing the best are in total different industries. But the single consistent theme is we are all back together in person.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Return-to-office wins - remote work retreats outside an elite minority E192 · 2024-08-16 ▶ 50:01

So now that you have this era of being fit and you don't need as many people from AI, I think everybody's coming back to the office unless you are part of the 20% of truly elite workers.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Washington rescues commercial real estate with a structured lending program E165 · 2024-02-09 ▶ 1:26:45

I mean, Janet Yellen is going to bail these folks out. That means you won't bail out the banks themselves, but you'll bail out the creditors, obviously. The people holding the bag. They'll get bailed.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Washington rescues commercial real estate with a structured lending program E165 · 2024-02-09 ▶ 1:12:28

And this is where, going back to my speculation a couple months ago, kind of gets revisited, if you're actually talking about a two-third write-down on the value in these funds, most of that being pension funds, you're not going to see governments let that happen. You're going to see the federal government. There's going to be some action at some point... there's going to need to be some sort of structured solution to support retirees and pensioners, because that's ultimately who ends up holding the bag in this massive write-down.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 📈 WeWork's Chapter 11 resets its leases at 60 cents - landlords eat it, the distressed buyer wins E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 41:38

the business is just drowning in these lease obligations and to restructure 777 lease obligations in this environment that we're talking about while doing what Chamath is saying, lowering rents to attract employers to show up and actually rent space from them is obviously causing the business model to distort even worse than it has been historically.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 WeWork's Chapter 11 resets its leases at 60 cents - landlords eat it, the distressed buyer wins E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 45:20

Oh my God, you just convinced me. Let's go buy it.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 WeWork's Chapter 11 resets its leases at 60 cents - landlords eat it, the distressed buyer wins E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 43:02

There's no question that WeWork has been a capital destruction machine. That being said, I actually think that some private equity player is going to buy this out of bankruptcy and make a fortune.

Sacks oppose ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Washington rescues commercial real estate with a structured lending program E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 36:59

So I mostly see this Biden program as symbolic, but the question is whether the symbolism will actually drive better behavior by these blue cities.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🏛️ Washington rescues commercial real estate with a structured lending program E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 38:31

I personally think they're just trying to find more ways to pump money into supporting commercial real estate markets because of the issues we just highlighted. And I think this is the first of what will likely be several programs to support, framed as things like affordable housing, but really designed to support the economic loss impairment that's going to be inevitable at some point.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 30:21

I think you could give it to me for zero and I wouldn't bring my team back there.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 33:10

for San Francisco, I'd say probably half the debt should be written off... there'll be about 20 more that are coming to market that will trade in the next year. It's going to be fire sale after fire sale.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 📈 Office commercial real estate reckoning — SF towers go to the banks E152 · 2023-11-03 ▶ 22:05

The $3 trillion of debt that we just mentioned that's sitting on all the bank's balance sheets is all being held at par. They're not discounting it at all, and they're not marking it as being impaired in any way... there's a real risk in the market that I don't think has been fully accounted for, that we're starting to see the cracks.