🌍 American exceptionalism soars and the economy booms in 2022

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E61 (2021-12-29) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 41:47 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“My most contrarian belief is that American influence and exceptionalism is going to soar... a perfect storm of a ton of capital, a ton of energy, lots of new ideas... the economy is going to boom. And we will prove once again that we're the greatest country and economy in the world.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E62 (2022-01-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 44:55 OPPOSE

“I mean, they had they had the Goldilocks scenario down about three weeks ago and I think they're going to tank the thing now or there's a much greater risk of that.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E64 (2022-01-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 50:11 SUPPORT

“the economy underlying, there are lots of great businesses that are growing and doing well, and there's stability that's emerging”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E65 (2022-01-29) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 50:02 SUPPORT

“So let's look in the good news column. Wages way up. Earnings way up. 10 million job openings in the United States. Pretty close to record low unemployment. And the pandemic ending. And people having record savings in their bank accounts and personal balance sheets.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E65 (2022-01-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:45 OPPOSE

“Well, the negatives are that yes, the unemployment rate is very low, but a lot of people have dropped out of the labor force. So the labor participation rate is still quite low. ... And then the fact that wages are going up is good, but we don't know how much that's inflation. So those would be the negatives.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E71 (2022-03-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 21:30 OPPOSE

“Look, David and I have been the ones that said the risk is to a recession. We are now teetering towards a recession.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E72 (2022-03-19) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 50:32 SUPPORT

“The economy is still quite strong. ... And we could actually support 2%, 2.5% interest rates and still actually grow really well.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) macro w=1.00 · n=10 · E73 (2022-03-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:25:49 OPPOSE

“I tweeted a few weeks ago, the Fed's probably behind the curve on recession, not inflation, right? We have massive demand destruction going on right now in the US economy.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E74 (2022-04-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 16:07 SUPPORT

“Almost every other time we've had a recession, people couldn't find jobs. ... And now we're sitting here with more jobs than we can fill. There's still over 10 million jobs available, and people are still resigning from jobs.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 24:34 OPPOSE

“Something is happening that we need to take seriously, and none of the outcomes here are growthy good outcomes. ... we're going to be going into the back half of the year in a midterm election where the economy is slowing, interest rates are high, prices are high. This is a horrible setup for the day.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 13:48 OPPOSE

“So these are all negative indicators. ... And I think we're either going to have a recession or something very close to it.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E78 (2022-04-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 31:54 OPPOSE

“We have a quarter of negative GDP. We have China in lockdowns. We have every company that's in the manufacturing supply chain ecosystem telling the world that we don't really know what this is going to look like. Intel today actually said there's going to be shortages in chips through 2024”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E78 (2022-04-30) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 37:14 REVERSAL

“we're obviously either in a recession or, you know, dancing around it. We're basically, you know, on the edge of the cliff right now, I think is probably the most accurate.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E78 (2022-04-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 38:41 OPPOSE

“we've got a slowing economy with negative GDP growth. You've got inflation is still rampant. ... And when you have that kind of wealth destruction, it eventually trickles down into the economy because people just feel, companies start cutting budgets, people have less money. The spending goes down.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E80 (2022-05-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:08:58 REVERSAL

“Those two things could be what saves us, could save us during this recession. It's something distinctly unique about this recession, is job openings and low unemployment.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E80 (2022-05-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:30:37 OPPOSE

“from where we're sitting, we're seeing a stock market crash, a panic and a recession and he doesn't even see it.”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) macro w=1.00 · n=10 · E81 (2022-05-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 7:22 OPPOSE

“Somebody who can afford to pay $1,200 a month in December could afford a $350,000 home. Today can afford a $240,000 home. ... If you look at what consumer confidence is, it's the lowest in 10 years, right? Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of slowing down.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E84 (2022-06-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 56:07 REVERSAL

“there's a whole group of investors who have only known the up market. There's a whole group of founders who are only in the growth market. If you're under 40 years old, you don't understand what you're about to experience.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E85 (2022-06-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:05:20 REVERSAL · horizon 12mo

“How many quarters will this recession be? If we had to pick a range, pick a two quarter range. ... I'm thinking three to five.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E86 (2022-07-08) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 21:23 SUPPORT

“So this is going to have an impact. It's going to catch up, but there's so many jobs available and there's so many people unemployed. I think it's manageable.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E90 (2022-08-05) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 15:41 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo

“Jobs, and we've talked about this every month as we watch it, finally dipped under 11 million, as Sacks predicted. You know, we're going to shed three or four hundred thousand jobs, it seems, every month, which should take this, you know, 10, 11 million number over the next year down to maybe five or six, which would still be an unbelievable number, still put us at very robust, full employment, which has been a big question.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E91 (2022-08-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 47:26 SUPPORT

“which is, hey, if we have increased participation, that's great. Increases monetary velocity, increases participation in the economy. That's a possible path out.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E91 (2022-08-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 48:08 OPPOSE

“Even in secular decline on that trend for 25 years. So maybe on the margins, a few folks run out of stimulus and decide to go and get a job. But I don't think, again, it's kind of like, you know, when you're at the blackjack table in Vegas and somebody's clapping. I feel like all the, like what we're talking about right now is clapping as a strategy.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E103 (2022-11-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 24:26 OPPOSE

“I think the larger point is just that it feels to me like the economy is headed off a cliff right now. I mean, I can tell you within our larger portfolio of companies, like I can see the trajectory. So after Q1 board meetings, I would say about two-thirds of portfolio companies were hitting their numbers and one-third were missing.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E103 (2022-11-05) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 31:55 SUPPORT

“And this was the Fed's goal, right? They wanted to take away this free capital. They want to slow the economy down. And it seems like they're making progress. They did the 75 basis point hike this week. But we're adding jobs to the economy. We have more job openings and we had 2.6% GDP growth.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E109 (2022-12-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 20:33 OPPOSE

“I mean, I whiffed. It just completely missed the global macro shift that we embarked on in full force starting in Q1 of this year.”