Amazon.com, Inc.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Amazon as a long-term compounding hold E285 · 2026-08-14 ▶ 1:21:54

a long-term shareholder in Amazon. I have a very big position in Amazon, and I keep increasing it every year. They should do the right thing here

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Amazon as a long-term compounding hold E257 · 2026-01-10 ▶ 36:10

My prediction for 2026 is that Amazon is going to have a massive year as they continue to replace humans with robots. ... the first company to have more robots driving their bottom line than humans. ... And I'm going to place a bet on that.

Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 30:47

Being the low cost producer is really going to matter in AI. Because at some level, the amount of tokens you produce is intelligence because of test time compute, you know, post-training reinforcement learning. And so if you can produce those tokens at a lower cost, you'll have a big advantage.

So you get a bunch of full-on missionary engineers that work twice as hard, and you have a culture that is ultra fierce true seeking, and you don't get caught up in politics, bureaucracy, BS, and you just go for it. And I think that's where... And then you go, wow, scientific breakthrough, scientific method. Like you start winning on truth, and that will start, I believe, that will start to give the product awesomeness of OpenAI a run for its money.

Jason oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital E235 · 2025-07-11 ▶ 42:14

So if he can keep solving the energy problem with solar on one side and batteries and standing up, you know, Colossus 2, 3, 4, 5, he's going to have a massive advantage there

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars E232 · 2025-06-21 ▶ 1:37:03

So why don't you put up with the shitty part of the rest of their businesses and just own all three and that's it, call it a day. Because you've got to assume that if one of them wins over the other two or accelerates ahead of the other two, it's going to more than make up for the losses that the other two might experience in their other businesses. The multiples aren't crazy on those three companies, by the way.

I think all four of us would agree that if we could synthetically own AWS, Azure and GCP, if I could somehow automagically create an index of all three of those businesses, right, over the next five years, you wouldn't need to own anything else.

Chamath reversal ×3 ▼ on 🤖 A CUDA transpiler breaks Nvidia's software lock-in E232 · 2025-06-21 ▶ 22:14

When I first started 80-90 a year ago, one of the key bets I made, which was a mistake and we unwound the bet, but the first bet that I made was, can we build a transpiler? ... And basically what I learned in that process are all of the attention mechanisms that are built into transformers that really differentiate how good the models are, need to literally be hand-tuned for every single target of silicon that you have.

Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration E227 · 2025-05-09 ▶ 1:14:17

I've talked to M&A people, Philippe, and they have said it's not even worth bringing it to the board.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Closing the unregistered-foreign-importer loophole hits Amazon's 3P marketplace E226 · 2025-05-02 ▶ 52:23

And at the core of it was a feeling by them that Amazon had abandoned them as American purveyors and sellers of goods. And that Amazon on the margins had a tendency to help competitors from abroad come, stand themselves up and compete and essentially cannibalize on price and margin.

And those feedback loops are there. I mean, the Trump administration is going to act on this, and there's an act that's coming out of Congress as well to shut down the foreign import of records. So those feedback loops are there in ways that I don't know if they were there in the past.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Forced KYC on cloud compute buyers dents hyperscaler revenue E225 · 2025-04-26 ▶ 53:53

The minuses or the risks that I think now will get uncovered is, are the clouds doing enough to make sure that China and other folks aren't getting access to compute that they should not get access to? And that could have an impact on some of their revenue. So that's a GCP problem. I think it's an Azure problem. It's a AWS problem. And that's going to need to get sorted out in the next couple of quarters because if Western governments basically say to the clouds, hey, you need to KYC your customers so that it's not somebody distilling the best of our models into a place we don't agree with, I think there could be some blowback.

I think that the vice president is an amazingly brilliant guy. He has also expressed kind of public support for Lena Cahn from time to time, right? And that's inside the Republican party. And on the left, obviously, there's tremendous support for Lena Cahn.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 Google Cloud hits its margin inflection and tracks AWS's revenue curve E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 50:24

$10 billion a year of incremental profit against $40 billion of cloud revenue, and against $1 billion of Wiz revenue. There's a lot to be kind of built here to make this make financial sense.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 📈 Google Cloud hits its margin inflection and tracks AWS's revenue curve E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 52:56

I think the strategic rationale is quite clever, which is you start to gain customer traction and workloads in all of these other environments. And I suspect that TK is smart enough to try to pull these workloads back into GCP.

Chamath oppose ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration E220 · 2025-03-22 ▶ 35:28

I think companies will be much more aggressive on M&A. Jason, it's what you've been asking for. I think you're going to get it. I think the reason why you're going to get it is you're going to have a very open-minded administration that will let the M&A happen.

then it really is a compute game and then maybe a data access game. And that means that there's four or five at scale players that can fund this.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital E208 · 2024-12-20 ▶ 58:57

In a capital war, I think the big companies like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and brands like Elon will always be able to attract effectively infinite capital. And their cost of capital goes to zero, which means they'll be able to win this hardware war.

Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration E207 · 2024-12-13 ▶ 1:03:55

And the wrath of LenaCon is officially over. She's out. Andrew Ferguson is in. This looks like a great appointment, another one by Trump in the column of somebody who wants to allow business to occur and wants a free market. He wants to do basically everything LenaCon didn't do, which is allow some M&A.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 36:11

But I hope that whoever replaces Lina Khan will continue to apply pressure to big tech because they are monopolies and they will abuse their power if they're allowed to and they need to be controlled.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 33:09

I completely agree. I think that these big tech companies will need to pay a pound of flesh for the deplatforming and the censorship that they did.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 31:59

So I think there are a few of these companies, Google being one of them, that are very much handicapped right now with respect to what kind of M&A they can do without dealing with the regulatory sledgehammer coming down on them. So I don't think that those guys are buyers, Jay Cal. I don't think that Google is in a place right now where they can go out and make a bunch of acquisitions. They're going to do everything they can to avoid the regulatory sledgehammer that's coming their way. First it was coming from the Dems. Now it's coming from the new administration.

Jason support ×1 ▲ on 📈 Google Cloud hits its margin inflection and tracks AWS's revenue curve E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 28:11

Cloud had a blowout quarter. Google Cloud, I see that all the time now. 11.4 billion in revenue on 35 percent annual growth with 1.9 billion in operating profit. I mean, it's printing money.

Sacks reversal ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration E199 · 2024-10-11 ▶ 50:22

I think the Republicans have their own issues with big tech. But those issues tend to revolve around censorship and bias and search results and LLMs, things like that, as opposed to bigness per se.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital E198 · 2024-10-03 ▶ 2:02:37

I don't think you can underestimate how companies like Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Amazon will react when they feel cornered. And I think in the last 20 or 25 years, what you've seen is those companies, when their backs are against the wall, they use money, their sharp elbowed, but the consistent thing is they've won.