AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.

stock all instruments
+82.1
net board stance what this means
259.3
-0.3% · close 2026-11-06
-0% / -6% / +7%
1m / 3m / 12m
+1%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
71%
of 52w range · -8.7% off high
0/6
hit rate as primary · vs SPY -24
⚠ THE BOARD IS ARGUING WITH ITSELF — 4 live bullish ideas (+106.8) against 1 bearish (-24.6). Net them out; the two expressions cancel each other.

Where All-In Alpha stands — 5 live ideas

ideacallplayconvictioncontributesmoved yet?scored in
🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks ▲ LONG adjacent ×0.5 93.5 +46.8 NOT MOVED YET 308d
🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice POD DISAGREES ▼ SHORT adjacent ×0.5 49.3 -24.6 NOT MOVED YET 323d
🤖 Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars ▲ LONG adjacent ×0.5 47.9 +23.9 — 592d
📈 Amazon as a long-term compounding hold ▲ LONG primary 26.9 +26.9 — 64d
🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital POD DISAGREES ▲ LONG adjacent ×0.5 18.3 +9.2 — 52d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence. Mentioned in the latest episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Chamath
Chamath 45% tech
19 ideas (4 live) · last heard E296
+7
pushes up
NI
Nikesh Arora guest ×0.5
3 ideas (3 live) · last heard E294
+5
pushes up
Sacks
Sacks 48% politics-market
10 ideas (3 live) · last heard E295
+3
pushes up
TH
Thomas Laffont 58% tech guest ×1.0
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E232
+3
pushes up
Aaron Levie
Aaron Levie 67% tech guest ×1.0
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E208
+2
pushes up
Gavin Baker
Gavin Baker 73% tech guest ×1.0
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E236
+2
pushes up
Friedberg
Friedberg 42% politics-market
14 ideas (3 live) · last heard E295
+1
pushes up
Jason
Jason 53% tech
13 ideas (4 live) · last heard E296
+1
pushes up
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner 71% tech guest ×1.0
2 ideas (0 live) · last heard E136
-1
pushes down
Ryan Petersen
Ryan Petersen guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E226
-2
pushes down
Travis Kalanick
Travis Kalanick 67% tech guest ×1.0
1 idea (1 live) · last heard E235
-2
pushes down
Ben Shapiro
Ben Shapiro 25% politics-market guest ×1.0
1 idea (0 live) · last heard E222
-3
pushes down

What resolves next

scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not

2026-12-29 52d ▲ 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18
2027-01-10 64d ▲ 📈 Amazon as a long-term compounding hold 27
2027-09-11 308d ▲ 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks 94
2027-09-26 323d ▼ 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice 49
2028-06-21 592d ▲ 🤖 Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 48

Track record on AMZN

As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 3 partial / 3 miss over 6 closed windows — credit 0.25, average vs SPY -23.7. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

ideacallplayresultreturnvs SPYscored
🏛️ US antitrust is punitive politics, not competition policy - hot-button platforms carry the overhang ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -102.9% -118.8 2023-09-17
🤖 Twitter's riff proves big tech is overstaffed - lean-opex reset ahead ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +136.4% +116.1 2023-10-07
🏛️ The four big-tech monopolies get broken up by the end of the decade ▼ SHORT adjacent HALF +2.6% +2.8 2022-05-01
🏛️ Big-tech antitrust survives a Trump-Vance administration ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -4.7% -20.4 2025-07-19
📈 Google Cloud hits its margin inflection and tracks AWS's revenue curve ▲ LONG adjacent HALF +16.2% -2.2 2025-07-26
🤖 Forced KYC on cloud compute buyers dents hyperscaler revenue ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -62.2% -85.8 2025-10-26
🏛️ An FDA for AI — model deployment gets licensed at the compute layer ▲ LONG adjacent RIGHT +48.7% +23.0 2024-04-14
📈 Amazon's ad business passes AWS within three years ▲ LONG primary HALF +5.7% -19.3 2024-05-01
🤖 Big Tech eats Hollywood — the studios' end state ▲ LONG primary WRONG -25.3% -25.0 2022-05-31
📈 Amazon buys One Medical cheap and levers it into a Prime healthcare stack ▲ LONG primary HALF +6.2% -10.1 2023-07-22
📈 Amazon pivots to cash cow - the GARP re-rating ▲ LONG primary HALF +21.4% -1.1 2023-10-14
🏛️ Closing the unregistered-foreign-importer loophole hits Amazon's 3P marketplace ▼ SHORT primary WRONG -41.2% -69.8 2026-05-02
🏛️ Structural breakup replaces merger-blocking as the big-tech remedy ▼ SHORT adjacent WRONG -47.7% -74.1 2024-07-14
🤖 Nvidia forward-integrates into cloud and attacks the hyperscalers ▼ SHORT adjacent RIGHT +23.4% +12.6 2025-05-24
📈 Amazon is exceptionally cheap against the consumer surplus Prime delivers ▲ LONG primary WRONG -10.0% -16.9 2022-04-17
🤖 A CUDA transpiler breaks Nvidia's software lock-in ▲ LONG adjacent WRONG -62.5% -83.8 2025-09-06

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding AMZN, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 1:12:48
running local models first and then falling back to them because we don't want to be throttled. We want to have unmetered intelligence.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 1:10:41
To the extent that that happens, maybe you'll get some regulatory capture on the one end, but you're going to constrain the supply so severely on the other, that the real people that will be in control of it are Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and SpaceX.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital E296 · 2026-11-07 ▶ 57:54
And now that is important because Anthropic and OpenAI are in a very fast recursive loop. They're on a 60 to 90 day loop in improving their models. So now all of a sudden, without an infinite amount of supply coming online, you can slow these folks down.
Jason Jason support ×1 ▲ on 📈 Amazon as a long-term compounding hold E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 1:14:00
Amazon also owns a big piece of Anthropic. They're going to be a big winner.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 1:03:30
When I say it's complicated, I think there's a story you can build in the Cloud business that shows the next couple of years of really progressive growth in that business.
Sacks Sacks reversal ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 31:19
So you add it all up, and this is a company with over 300 billion of dry powder or it will soon have that. So then you've got all these Anthropic bears who are saying they've made all these CapEx commitments in the future, that they're never going to be able to live up to. Actually, this secures those commitments because they've got the capital now to basically back up all of those compute orders, all the forecasts of CapEx spending till, I don't know, 2030
Friedberg Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks E295 · 2026-10-30 ▶ 15:51
I've talked a lot about moving to open source, and we have our own cluster installed with our own kind of open source now.
Jason Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 30:11
Amazon has blocked these and subsequently, Grok now will tell you, my Amazon shopping bot says, I can no longer check out for you, but I can put it into your shopping cart, tell me which address, which card you want and I'll tee it all up for you, but I won't hit the buy button. So it's being adjudicated in real time right now and I think that's probably where we wind up.
NI Nikesh Arora oppose ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 23:11
So I think you see banks saying, do not, I do not allow you to interact with me with your agent period.
NI Nikesh Arora support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 12:51
It all depends on where you shift the profit pool. Today, they all live in NVIDIA and the memory industry, and they're being shifted towards the hyperscalers, people who have large compute available because at one, it will become less about the chips, it will become more about the availability of compute
NI Nikesh Arora support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 8:49
we preference open-source, open-weight, because it allows us to modify the weights and train them. Something which most people don't talk about is, it allows us to interrogate the chain of thought. Because, over time, what's going to happen is, all of those enterprises are going to need explainability, auditability, and verifiability.
Jason Jason support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 6:39
Wow, we're back to the future. People staying at their own data centers, yeah.
Chamath Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 4:50
Ever since Alex Carp's commentary on CNBC about data sovereignty, buying patterns have changed. And I think people are being a lot more methodical. They are building out their own data centers or at least moving into VPCs, virtual public clouds.
Chamath Chamath oppose ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars E294 · 2026-10-23 ▶ 4:50
They said, we have decreased our spend on AWS and GCP. We now have six completely independent ground up data centers that we've built from scratch for ourselves.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 1:15:46
That you own and that you have AI sovereignty, you're not educating a frontier model company.
Sacks Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks E293 · 2026-10-17 ▶ 1:15:12
And so what you're seeing in the enterprise right now is that for a lot of enterprise workloads, you don't need a general superintelligence. You don't need a frontier model. You need a small specialist model that's been trained on your own data.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:28:06
You can go run 50 website searches at the exact same time. And you can short circuit the loop because the software's ability to get that data is faster than the human's ability. So now the loop is go check 50 websites instantly, give me a result right away.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:26:39
But you look at Amazon blocking agents combined with Shopify saying, let's go for it, or Uber and DoorDash are now letting agents go in there and order your burrito or your car. But there's a whole compression of the commerce layer occurring at the same time of the compression of software that Chamath is talking about, which will lead to massive deflationary cost savings and speed.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:23:11
someone was describing to me that they in Grok Bot said, save me money. And it just kind of like goes through their inbox, it finds all of these different things, and it went and canceled a couple of subscriptions and it changed their phone plan and all of a sudden, they're saving like a few thousand dollars a year.
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 1:00:34
In fact, SI will eat the internet because there's no reason to basically go looking on a website when you can just ask your question to your highly personalized agent or model, and it's going to give you the answer.
Jason Jason support ×1 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 1:16:56
Shopify, Sacks, added API access to all the Shopify stores there. So this seems like maybe Amazon's making a strategic mistake here by not embracing the tech.
Chamath Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🤖 Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 1:13:53
The second thing though is really interesting. Things like Grokbot and Muse really put the App Store and its 30 percent rev share on notice. Why? Because all of a sudden, what you do is you force many of these services to exist headlessly, right?
Sacks Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 45:21
I fully understand that the majority of tokens will go to open models or commodity intelligence.
Jason Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 44:31
We need people to use those models so they have sovereignty, so you're not giving your data to the frontier model so that they don't get that tip of the spear superintelligence edge, which is why people are disengaging.
Friedberg Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🤖 Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks E290 · 2026-09-26 ▶ 38:08
Separately, I think most of the enterprise applications are going to be run using these open weight models.