📈 San Francisco's governance flip turns the city around
Daniel Lurie winning the mayoralty plus the progressive supervisors (Preston, Peskin) being voted off the Board of Supervisors is a real governance regime change, and a Lurie-team budget effort — San Francisco spends 1.5x New York City per capita — puts the city's cost base under control. Sacks and Friedberg are both explicitly bullish on the city, with downtown foot traffic and safety already improving, which puts a floor under SF office demand.
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-11-16 → 2025-11-16 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG KRC (primary play). KRC rose 12.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +12.6% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +15.6% → α = +12.6 − (+15.6) = -3.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Sacks | opposed: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: BXP→MISS (-5.1%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-11-16)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | KRC | stock | PRIMARY | Kilroy is the most San Francisco-weighted office REIT |
| ▲ LONG | BXP | stock | adjacent | large-cap office REIT with SF exposure, the standing office-demand proxy |
| ▲ LONG | PGRE | stock | adjacent | Paramount Group's portfolio is SF plus NYC office |
Mention log
“And this budget needs to get put under control. San Francisco spends 1.5x per capita of what New York City spends. And that's something that Daniel and his team have said they're going to address sort of like their own doge. And there's a team going in there to address this. So I'm really bullish on what's going to happen with the city.”
“I just think that the city is very poorly managed. And just the quality of many cities are poorly managed. And I think that there's a common through line in these poorly managed cities. All the things that you say, there's no will to do. There's no will to keep crime at bay. There's no will to make usable spaces for people. There's no will to invest in the arts. So what do you expect, right? There's more money collected by these cities, but there's just more total grift, corruption and waste.”
“I think it's great that Daniel Lurie is mayor of San Francisco, and he's putting smart people around him. And they're trying to rethink, first some attacking these core problems, but also how do we make San Francisco fun again? So I love things like congestion pricing. I think now is the time to try every new innovation that you ever thought of and see what sticks”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -25.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E204 2024-11-16 | init | +17.7 | 17.7 | E204 born by Sacks (sentiment x2) [w=0.89] |
| E204 2024-11-16 | reinforce | +16.0 | 33.8 | E204 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.87] |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -1.4 | 32.4 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -1.3 | 31.1 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | reinforce | +8.3 | 34.7 | E211 Mark Pincus support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E211 2025-01-18 | oppose | -12.1 | 22.6 | E211 Chamath opposes x3 [w=0.84] |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.9 | 20.9 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E251 silent |