← pool

📈 San Francisco's governance flip turns the city around

Daniel Lurie winning the mayoralty plus the progressive supervisors (Preston, Peskin) being voted off the Board of Supervisors is a real governance regime change, and a Lurie-team budget effort — San Francisco spends 1.5x New York City per capita — puts the city's cost base under control. Sacks and Friedberg are both explicitly bullish on the city, with downtown foot traffic and safety already improving, which puts a floor under SF office demand.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 34.7 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG KRC
expression · bullish equities
PARTIAL
outcome · R +12.6% · α -3.0%
2025-11-16
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2024-11-16 → 2025-11-16 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG KRC (primary play). KRC rose 12.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +12.6% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +15.6%α = +12.6 − (+15.6) = -3.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    ▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    · MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Sacks | opposed: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: BXP→MISS (-5.1%)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-11-16)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG KRCstock PRIMARY Kilroy is the most San Francisco-weighted office REIT
▲ LONG BXPstock adjacent large-cap office REIT with SF exposure, the standing office-demand proxy
▲ LONG PGREstock adjacent Paramount Group's portfolio is SF plus NYC office

Mention log

Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E204 (2024-11-16) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 57:03 SUPPORT
“I'm bullish on the San Francisco turnaround because I think Daniel Lurie getting elected mayor was huge. And this doesn't get really as much attention, but it's very important.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E204 (2024-11-16) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 57:37 SUPPORT
“And this budget needs to get put under control. San Francisco spends 1.5x per capita of what New York City spends. And that's something that Daniel and his team have said they're going to address sort of like their own doge. And there's a team going in there to address this. So I'm really bullish on what's going to happen with the city.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E211 (2025-01-18) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 57:26 OPPOSE
“I just think that the city is very poorly managed. And just the quality of many cities are poorly managed. And I think that there's a common through line in these poorly managed cities. All the things that you say, there's no will to do. There's no will to keep crime at bay. There's no will to make usable spaces for people. There's no will to invest in the arts. So what do you expect, right? There's more money collected by these cities, but there's just more total grift, corruption and waste.”
MA
Mark Pincus (guest ×0.5) no equities track record · E211 (2025-01-18) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 53:11 SUPPORT
“I think it's great that Daniel Lurie is mayor of San Francisco, and he's putting smart people around him. And they're trying to rethink, first some attacking these core problems, but also how do we make San Francisco fun again? So I love things like congestion pricing. I think now is the time to try every new innovation that you ever thought of and see what sticks”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks w=0.89
1 scoring event · 33% of moves
+17.7 → net +17.7
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.87
1 scoring event · 30% of moves
+16.0 → net +16.0
Chamath
Chamath w=0.84
1 scoring event · 22% of moves
+0.0 / -12.1 → net -12.1
MA
Mark Pincus guest ×0.5
1 scoring event · 15% of moves
+8.3 → net +8.3

⏳ decay drained -25.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E204 2024-11-16 init +17.7 17.7 E204 born by Sacks (sentiment x2) [w=0.89]
E204 2024-11-16 reinforce +16.0 33.8 E204 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.87]
E205 2024-11-23 decay -1.4 32.4 E205 silent
E206 2024-12-07 decay -1.3 31.1 E206 silent
E207 2024-12-13 decay -1.2 29.9 E207 silent
E208 2024-12-20 decay -1.2 28.7 E208 silent
E209 2025-01-04 decay -1.1 27.5 E209 silent
E210 2025-01-11 decay -1.1 26.4 E210 silent
E211 2025-01-18 reinforce +8.3 34.7 E211 Mark Pincus support x2 (new voice) [w=0.50]
E211 2025-01-18 oppose -12.1 22.6 E211 Chamath opposes x3 [w=0.84]
E212 2025-01-25 decay -0.9 21.7 E212 silent
E213 2025-01-31 decay -0.9 20.9 E213 silent
E214 2025-02-07 decay -0.8 20.0 E214 silent
E215 2025-02-15 decay -0.8 19.2 E215 silent
E216 2025-02-21 decay -0.8 18.5 E216 silent
E217 2025-03-01 decay -0.7 17.7 E217 silent
E218 2025-03-08 decay -0.7 17.0 E218 silent
E219 2025-03-15 decay -0.7 16.3 E219 silent
E220 2025-03-22 decay -0.7 15.7 E220 silent
E221 2025-03-29 decay -0.6 15.1 E221 silent
E222 2025-04-05 decay -0.6 14.4 E222 silent
E223 2025-04-11 decay -0.6 13.9 E223 silent
E224 2025-04-19 decay -0.6 13.3 E224 silent
E225 2025-04-26 decay -0.5 12.8 E225 silent
E226 2025-05-02 decay -0.5 12.3 E226 silent
E227 2025-05-09 decay -0.5 11.8 E227 silent
E228 2025-05-17 decay -0.5 11.3 E228 silent
E229 2025-05-24 decay -0.5 10.9 E229 silent
E231 2025-06-13 decay -0.4 10.4 E231 silent
E232 2025-06-21 decay -0.4 10.0 E232 silent
E233 2025-06-28 decay -0.4 9.6 E233 silent
E234 2025-07-04 decay -0.4 9.2 E234 silent
E235 2025-07-11 decay -0.4 8.9 E235 silent
E236 2025-07-19 decay -0.4 8.5 E236 silent
E237 2025-08-01 decay -0.3 8.2 E237 silent
E238 2025-08-09 decay -0.3 7.8 E238 silent
E239 2025-08-15 decay -0.3 7.5 E239 silent
E240 2025-08-22 decay -0.3 7.2 E240 silent
E241 2025-08-29 decay -0.3 6.9 E241 silent
E242 2025-09-07 decay -0.3 6.7 E242 silent
E243 2025-09-19 decay -0.3 6.4 E243 silent
E244 2025-09-27 decay -0.3 6.1 E244 silent
E245 2025-10-03 decay -0.2 5.9 E245 silent
E246 2025-10-10 decay -0.2 5.7 E246 silent
E247 2025-10-17 decay -0.2 5.4 E247 silent
E248 2025-10-24 decay -0.2 5.2 E248 silent
E249 2025-10-31 decay -0.2 5.0 E249 silent
E250 2025-11-07 decay -0.2 4.8 E250 silent
E251 2025-11-14 decay -0.2 4.6 E251 silent