+3.8
net board stance
what this means
49.24
-1.3% · close 2026-09-08
-2% / +4% / -7%
1m / 3m / 12m
-41%
vs SPY since 2025-05-17
39%
of 52w range · -10.9% off high
0/2
hit rate as primary · α -8
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Apple relocates US-bound iPhone assembly to India on the stated 18-month timeline CONTESTED | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 7.7 | +3.8 | — | 46d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on INDA
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 2 partial / 0 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.5, average α -8.1. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ AI regulation pushes model development offshore - bet on India | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +24.3% | -8.9 | 2024-11-03 |
| 🛢️ Under-surveyed resource geographies reprice as supply chains route around China | ▲ LONG | primary | PARTIAL | +16.4% | -7.3 | 2024-01-20 |
| 🌍 Factory exodus from China to Vietnam and India as Chinese wages hit $6/hr | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -0.3% | -16.6 | 2023-07-22 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding INDA, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Yeah, they should do it. But I'm just saying that's a... It's very smart. It's not going to get done in 18 months.
I don't think the Apple deal is from a standstill. My understanding is Foxconn and others have been working with Apple to actually stand up manufacturing capacity in India for some time now. And I do believe that they probably have one or two model runs already active in the country. ... It's not often that Tim Cook will stand up and say, I'm going to do something in 18 months and then be delayed by yours. He's not Elon. He's going to come out. He's going to be very clear.
the way that the statutes were written is there's a definition on the size of a model, which in and of itself is very quickly changing
SA
Sam Altman
support ×2
▲ on
🏛️ AI regulation pushes model development offshore - bet on India
E178 · 2024-05-10
▶ 46:21
the reason I have pushed for an agency-based approach for the big picture stuff and not write it in law, is I don't, in 12 months, it will all be written wrong
Basically, the California legislation that's proposed and some of the federal legislation that's been proposed basically requires the government to audit a model, to audit software, to audit and review the parameters and the weightings of the model. Then you need their check mark in order to deploy it for commercial or public use.
Yeah, but I think, Friedberg, your larger point about US versus India versus China, I think this could have a major impact on our global competitiveness.
If we don't allow our market to develop in the United States, India and China and Singapore and other markets will get well ahead of us in terms of their model development and their capabilities as a nation and their capabilities as an industry.
India GDP is going to be 7% a year. They're off to the races. They're on a rocket ship. They're doing everything right.
I am investing a lot of money in those places that control the natural resources that are poorly understood, meaning, there are places like India where our geological survey capacity is relatively naive.
And then you look at other countries like Nigeria or India, who are in, you know, at the beginning of what could be a multi-decade boom, because you have 20-year-olds that will be entering the workforce, you know, they'll effectively work for less than their older counterparts, right? So then there'll be an incentive then to bring work on shore into those countries.
China's not going to just lose their manufacturing edge. They're not just going to say, hey, we give up, let everyone go to Vietnam. They're going to try and upgrade the capability of those factories
And that's why you're seeing a lot of folks, I don't know if you're seeing it in your portfolios, but we've seen a lot of folks looking at India, Vietnam, and moving factories there, and obviously Japan has been incentivizing people to move out of it.