State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF

Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 📈 US housing is millions of units short and demand is off the charts E211 · 2025-01-18 ▶ 28:44

There is a home building dearth right now in the United States. So this is an amazing opportunity because they can now move to LA, build homes.

Sacks oppose ×2 ▲ on 📈 US housing is millions of units short and demand is off the charts E165 · 2024-02-09 ▶ 1:20:35

I keep trying to explain residential is not a great market either because interest rates have spiked up. So there's not a vacancy problem. Multifamily developers are still able to lease the units. They're still able to rent. The problem is their financing costs have shot through the roof.

Chamath support ×1 ▲ on 📈 US housing is millions of units short and demand is off the charts E165 · 2024-02-09 ▶ 1:20:33

Yeah, I mean, I think you're basically right.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 📈 US housing is millions of units short and demand is off the charts E165 · 2024-02-09 ▶ 1:20:08

Paradoxically, on the other side, we have this incredible market for developers, which is, gosh, there's not enough homes. I think we need 7 million more homes, and the demand is off the charts for homes, yeah?

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Conforming-loan expansion inflates home equity into a HELOC-fuelled bust E142 · 2023-08-18 ▶ 32:02

We have told every American that they should put all of their net worth and more into their house. And as a result, we've had to continue to drive up the price of housing in the US., drive up, create a housing bubble by pouring a ton of capital in to keep that asset safe and protected because it is where most Americans have put their nest egg.

Brad Gerstner support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E141 · 2023-08-11 ▶ 1:28:59

I would say the market's actually betting here that the Fed is overdoing it because of what you see in that blue line and that the economy is going to slow. The lag effects of this tightening have not yet been felt.

Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E140 · 2023-08-04 ▶ 1:01:23

But the fact is, America is just crushing it in terms of employment, and that's why we didn't have this crash landing. I think the soft landing is because of employment, and I'll just end there.

Sacks reversal ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E137 · 2023-07-14 ▶ 24:32

But I think, again, what you're seeing over the last few weeks, it's just more and more evidence that it could be a soft landing, that we may not have a recession and we might even get rate cuts next year.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E136 · 2023-07-09 ▶ 38:35

Yeah, look, I don't think we're out of the woods quite yet. So Druckenmiller, by the way, said that he was predicting a hard landing in the second half of the year. We're just starting the second half of the year. So he's still got six months to be proven correct.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E136 · 2023-07-09 ▶ 34:30

Hard landing was sort of the Druckenmiller thing that I think that, you know, I said, I think it was a few weeks ago. It's very difficult to see a hard landing when China stimulates just because of their natural gravitational pull in the world economy.

Brad Gerstner oppose ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E136 · 2023-07-09 ▶ 30:39

But clearly the economy is not crashing. We had a lot of people who said that the economy was going to hit the skids in Q1 or Q2 of this year due to these higher rates. The economy is incredibly resilient.

Chamath oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E133 · 2023-06-16 ▶ 20:03

And the reason there's not going to be a hard landing is you just saw China today basically say, we're going to start to rip in trillions of dollars.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E130 · 2023-05-26 ▶ 1:12:06

I think that speaks to the larger economy is not doing that well. I think the economists a year from now may say that the recession had already begun.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E126 · 2023-04-28 ▶ 1:07:07

I'm sticking by it. I think we're still going to have a recession.

Sacks support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E121 · 2023-03-24 ▶ 4:38

Why won't you just stand pat for one month? You can always raise rates in a month. I think that this move here could in hindsight be seen as the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E119 · 2023-03-11 ▶ 33:08

Two days ago, two days ago, Powell was testifying in front of the banking committee. And they asked him, do you see any systemic risks in the banking system because of the rapid rise in interest rates? He said, no, no systemic risk.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E119 · 2023-03-11 ▶ 17:33

we, the four of us, have been talking for the last 18 months about the impact of rising rates. And, you know, we talked a lot about, for example, like in our portfolio, my partners and I walked into every company and made them have at least enough money to get through mid-2025.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E118 · 2023-03-03 ▶ 49:11

So I tend to be a little bit gloomy with respect to the big macro picture because I just don't see how you can change rates this fast.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E114 · 2023-02-04 ▶ 1:01:22

it's good if we have a soft landing in the economy. I wouldn't assume that that's going to happen. I still think there's a really good chance of recession later this year

Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E114 · 2023-02-04 ▶ 6:58

It's very hard, in other words, Sacks, to have a recession if people are employed, if people are employed.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E109 · 2022-12-24 ▶ 1:49:32

And now he is predicting a hard landing in 2023 with a deeper recession than many expect.

Chamath support ×3 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E109 · 2022-12-24 ▶ 1:44:05

because I think Elon and I are roughly in the same place we have been for a while, which is like mid-24 is when the recession ends

Well, I think it's more like it does seem like we're headed into a recession here in 2023 The magnitude of that recession is debatable, but I think it's at least a light to moderate recession. Potentially, it's on the order of 2009

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E108 · 2022-12-16 ▶ 1:07:54

We're going to have major economic headwinds for the next four to six quarters. Call it year and a half.

Sacks support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Rate hikes bite with a lag - back in recession next year E105 · 2022-11-19 ▶ 15:11

I mean, remember, like we don't know, I think we all believe that we're going to have a pretty severe recession next year.