📈 Movie theaters do not go out of business

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2021-03-27 → 2022-03-27 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▲ LONG AMC (primary play). AMC rose 95.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +95.6% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +15.9% → α = +95.6 − (+15.9) = +79.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
4. Rule fired:
   ▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 95.6, α 79.7)

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   · MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Jason | proxy-sensitive: CNK→MISS (-15.0%); IMAX→MISS (-2.0%)

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg w=0.87

1 scoring event · 55% of moves

+17.3 → net +17.3

Jason w=0.97

1 scoring event · 45% of moves

+14.5 → net +14.5

⏳ decay drained -26.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one