🏛️ Doubling cap gains drains risk capital — the speculative end reprices
Independent of whether the rate change passes as proposed, the besties argue that a 20%-to-40% long-term capital gains rate mechanically halves the after-tax return on the riskiest assets, so marginal dollars rotate out of investment and into consumption: less angel/venture and early-stage company formation, fewer recreational syndicate, day-trading and crypto dollars, and sustained pressure on the most speculative, longest-duration end of the market.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 67.3 GREEN
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT ARKK
expression · bearish politics-market
HIT
outcome · R +57.2% · α +53.7%
2022-04-23
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
ARKK ·
It's 1997-98, not 1999 — the melt-up has years left
LONG
GREEN 67.3
← stronger than this idea (14.4)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-04-23 → 2022-04-23 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT ARKK (primary play). ARKK fell 57.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +57.2% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +3.6%
→ α = +57.2 − (+3.6) = +53.7%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +60.8% — did ARKK move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 57.2, α 53.7)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-04-23)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | ARKK | etf | PRIMARY | cleanest listed proxy for the speculative long-duration risk capital they say gets withdrawn |
| ▼ SHORT | IPO | etf | adjacent | Renaissance IPO ETF — the new-issue bid is exactly the capital-formation channel Chamath says dries up |
| ▼ SHORT | cg:bitcoin | crypto | adjacent | Jason names crypto and day-trading dollars explicitly as the recreational money that steps back |
Mention log
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E30 (2021-04-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 9:21
SUPPORT
“It'll diminish investment, Jason. It's exactly what David says, which is that on the, on a marginal basis, what will happen is inflation probably goes up because people just decide to consume rather than invest because they think, well, what's the point? ... And if you double that rate from 20 to 40, I suspect that there's a lot of people whose risk tolerance changes, and they're going to feel their after-tax gains differently, and they'll wonder to themselves, is this worth it? And then I think what happens as a result is entrepreneurship drags.”
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E30 (2021-04-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 12:24
SUPPORT
“Risk capital has been taken out of the economy and it's now going to be spent by government. Look, anything that you tax, you punish and disincentivize, and anything you subsidize, you create an incentive for there to be more of. ... And when all of a sudden you double the cap gains rate, that is an attack on that opportunity society.”
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E49 (2021-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 58:43
SUPPORT
“Well, by the way, one of the brilliant provisions in this reconciliation bill is they're actually disallowing retirement funds to invest in alternative assets, including startups and venture capital funds.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -62.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E30 2021-04-23 | init | +42.9 | 42.9 | E30 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) [w=1.02] |
| E30 2021-04-23 | reinforce | +14.9 | 57.8 | E30 Sacks support x3 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E30 2021-04-23 | reinforce | +9.5 | 67.3 | E30 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -2.7 | 64.6 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -2.6 | 62.0 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -2.5 | 59.5 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -2.4 | 57.1 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -2.3 | 54.9 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -2.2 | 52.7 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -2.1 | 50.6 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -2.0 | 48.5 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.9 | 46.6 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.9 | 44.7 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.8 | 42.9 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.7 | 41.2 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.6 | 39.6 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.6 | 38.0 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.5 | 36.5 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.5 | 35.0 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | reinforce | +9.6 | 43.2 | E49 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.7 | 41.5 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.7 | 39.8 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.6 | 38.2 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.5 | 36.7 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.5 | 35.2 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.4 | 33.8 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.4 | 32.5 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -1.3 | 31.2 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -1.2 | 29.9 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -1.2 | 28.7 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -1.1 | 27.6 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -1.1 | 25.4 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -1.0 | 24.4 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -1.0 | 23.4 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.9 | 20.7 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.6 | 15.6 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E77 silent |