🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it)

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E24 (2021-03-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 9:04 SUPPORT

“I think we need to figure out whether there's really, whether there's a real inflation drag in cooking someplace. If there really is inflation, again, you have to think the trillions of dollars we put into the economy eventually has to come out in productive goods and services. ... And all of that excess capital will probably inflate prices.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E25 (2021-03-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 50:37 SUPPORT

“And when, you know, interest rates go up and the risk free rate goes up, then the attractiveness of those assets go down”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E25 (2021-03-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 52:28 SUPPORT

“you'll see this across all commodity products if inflation takes hold in a, in a meaningful way, including, you know, food products, ag products, you know, all commodities, you know, metals ... businesses that have a lot of PP&E are generally going to do better in an inflationary environment”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E25 (2021-03-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 54:24 SUPPORT

“But I think we should be very careful here about inflation and making sure it doesn't get out of control”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E27 (2021-03-27) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 16:49 SUPPORT

“when you look at what Biden has done in just in the first 60 days, $1.9 trillion of stimulus and a proposed $3 trillion stimulus package, we're not even three months into his presidency, and you forecast that forward, it feels like we're entering an era of spend, spend, spend ... I do think it will drive inflation. I do think it will drive commodity prices.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E27 (2021-03-27) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 36:38 OPPOSE

“So, Chamath, to be clear, inflation is not my number one concern right now. I'm just saying that it would not be a good thing to let it get out of control. That's all.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E27 (2021-03-27) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 35:19 OPPOSE

“Is that realistic, though, that it will spiral out of control, given technological advances, efficiency? I mean, that's the backdrop that it's all against.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E27 (2021-03-27) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 36:26 SUPPORT

“Yeah, anything that the government's involved in inflates.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E31 (2021-05-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 55:40 SUPPORT

“because I've been thinking a lot just currently like, okay, inflation, what's the 10-year view? What's just going to happen? Like, what's my macro view of the world? ... And so you're flexing now to managing a demographic shift where folks are older. They're not going to work in a factory. They're not making goods the same way they used to. Economic growth is tapering. And so that whole China situation, in fact, demographically is going to solve itself. But the implications for America are not good, meaning I think inflation goes up, commodity prices go up, prices of everything go up.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E32 (2021-05-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 44:25 SUPPORT

“We've put too much money in the economy. We need to reopen. And we now need to face the fact that there are massively rising prices, which means that there will be inflation. And if you don't act, the capital markets will continue to act for us.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E32 (2021-05-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 46:01 SUPPORT

“they pushed this insane $10 trillion agenda of taxes and increases in spending that are now overstimulating the economy that are causing inflation that are now creating interest rate increases.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E49 (2021-10-02) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 43:00 SUPPORT · horizon 18mo

“And I think then we can get back to really addressing what are all that $10 or $12 trillion? How does it show up in the economy? That's where the inflation comes from. ... But now my mindset is going to 18 months from now, midterm inflation. I think that's going to be what it's all about.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E51 (2021-10-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 7:36 SUPPORT

“And you can see in every episode before this, I was always consistently like, there is no inflation, you can fade the inflation trade. ... So I just think inflation is here. I think the labor shortage is going to get worse, not better.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E51 (2021-10-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 26:54 SUPPORT

“Well, we do know that inflation is actually very high. ... We're at something like a 5.1% inflation rate. It's just about the highest since the late 70s, early 80s.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E51 (2021-10-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 8:53 SUPPORT

“And the cycle can actually go the wrong direction, where you have an inflationary spike that persists. ... So it is a real risk.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E51 (2021-10-16) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 8:11 SUPPORT

“So people are now making 35 bucks an hour and they were making 20 Now they got more disposable”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 45:25 SUPPORT

“It's not as if the inflation stops at 50,000 bucks a year. Everybody's wages rise. Consistent and persistent wage inflation will allow you to spend more because that's just what people do. ... The downstream implication is I think that prices will rise, but it will disproportionately hurt the middle class and the lower middle class.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 43:53 SUPPORT

“Now, I don't think we're going to have hyperinflation here, but we're at 5.1% now. And if people think it's going to be worse next year, and the Fed's not going to raise rates, it could even be higher next year.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 42:20 SUPPORT

“the psychology of managers and business owners and boards is such that they're saying, let's get ahead of the curve, let's raise rates. And as a result, you're seeing the trickling effect of inflation throughout the whole economy.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E55 (2021-11-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 42:54 SUPPORT

“I think it's persistent. And the reason I think it's persistent is that all of these things are intertwined. ... Fertilizer makes corn more expensive. Lumber makes house prices more expensive. Chip prices makes the iPhone and cars more expensive or completely backlogged. ... If you go back to the original measurement, it looks like inflation in CPI is much more pernicious than we would otherwise think if we just look at the new CPI that we started to look at as of 1980”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E55 (2021-11-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 50:15 SUPPORT

“Inflation is very simple. It's too much money chasing too few goods. And we have both sides of the equation going on right now. ... You've got this massive expansion in the amount of money. Look, too much money chasing too few goods creates this problem. It was very predictable. What I said back in May, this is what I was warning about.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E55 (2021-11-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 45:11 SUPPORT

“The thing I'm seeing now is I think we've moved into what I'll call a contagion phase of inflation, which is people are hearing about inflation. They're seeing it. ... They're just saying, everything's going up around me. And so they raise prices.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E55 (2021-11-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 47:51 SUPPORT

“Yeah, I made one in January that said the same thing. ... So it's very likely that, you know, tax revenue could kind of present itself again as a driver if inflation continues to spiral up.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E56 (2021-11-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 53:05 SUPPORT

“the primary reason for the increase in education costs because the government funds all the student loans, the increase in health care, the increase in defense, all of it is because the government is the customer and they tell the person that's servicing them upfront, they tell the market what they're willing to pay. And so the market just inflates to that amount.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E57 (2021-12-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 40:44 SUPPORT

“the government changed their formula for what is considered a conforming mortgage. I think it kicks in in January and essentially it basically allows US homeowners to have a million dollar mortgage and have it essentially be conforming. ... So worse terms become better terms. You have more equity. You can pull out more money. I think that people will spend that money. And so even on the consumer side, I think that you have an impetus to spend.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E58 (2021-12-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 9:04 SUPPORT

“it's definitely not transitory ... Then it went to 6.2. Now it's 6.8. Looks like it's headed to 7%. ... these guys are continuing to pump more and more stimulus into an economy that has enough”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E58 (2021-12-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 13:58 SUPPORT

“CPI is horribly calculated and it's really imprecise ... the largest owners of nationwide single-family rentals are reporting a 17% year-over-year rent increase ... it means that core CPI actually went from 4.9% today to actually 9%. And the CPI print, which was 6.8%, was actually 10.1%.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E58 (2021-12-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 17:37 SUPPORT

“We're seeing asset bubbles everywhere in NFTs, in crypto, in startups, in new startups, in new ideas. ... And as a result, we're kind of seeing this inflationary pressure persist.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E59 (2021-12-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 31:38 SUPPORT

“this BBB bill was particularly anachronistic once the 6.8%, you know, inflation print came out. In other words, we're in a hyperinflationary environment and here comes this bill that the CBO says if, you know, over 10 years would cost $5 trillion, that's the last thing we need is more money printing when, you know, we've got this inflationary fire out of control.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E59 (2021-12-17) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 33:22 SUPPORT

“The Fed prints money, the government prints $100, takes that $100, steps into the market, and takes something from you, in this case, it's a bond, and gives you that freshly printed $100. What are you going to do? Well, you're probably going to go and spend that, you're going to buy other things. And that's the cycle of inflation that quantitative easing basically creates. ... when we're printing six, seven, eight percent inflation for me to basically keep the money printing machine on because it's it's insane”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E60 (2021-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 43:04 SUPPORT

“But now it turned out that the inflation was not transitory. And so the use of the word transitory, I predict, will in fact be transitory.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E64 (2022-01-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 44:31 REVERSAL

“But David is saying something really important. The risk, in my opinion, is not of runaway inflation anymore. And the reason was what happened this weekend was incredibly important.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E67 (2022-02-12) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 1:03:46 SUPPORT

“there was a really interesting chart on inflation that actually Zero Hedge tweeted. And I threw it up in the notes here where they said real hourly earnings are negative 1.7 percent. It's the 10th month in a row where US incomes aren't keeping up with inflation. ... Actually, as it turns out, it boosted inflation so much that people are feeling worse off, even though their wages went up slightly, because on a net basis, their earnings are down. So I just think it's a good reminder that you can't just like print wealth. You can't print your way to prosperity.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E71 (2022-03-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:11:56 SUPPORT

“Today, corn, I think, is trading at $7.60 a bushel. That hasn't happened, guys. I can't tell you in how long. This was a commodity that was trading at $3.50 a few months ago. ... The trickle-down effect, as we're already seeing in California, or San Francisco, with the average price per gallon of gas at over $5. The trickle-down effect on purchasing behavior, on businesses defaulting because suddenly their counterparties dry up.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E71 (2022-03-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 21:30 REVERSAL

“No. And the other thing, in fact, it's the opposite. ... What I can tell you is I think that prices are too high in certain core commodities and goods. I think what's going to happen is we are going to find a way to subsidize those prices coming down.”