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📈 IPO 2.0: the Chamath SPAC complex

SPACs fix the broken IPO (priced like a late-stage round + direct listing); Chamath reserved IPOA-Z on the NYSE, writes $100M personally into every deal, and predicts he and one or two others dominate the category as thousands of companies come public earlier (~$50M revenue, year 5-6).

0 CONVICTION
peaked 46.8 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG SPCE
expression · bullish equities
RIGHT
result · return +45.0% · vs SPY +10.9%
2021-09-09
born 2020-09-09 (E7) → window closed

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2020-09-09 → 2021-09-09 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG SPCE (primary play). SPCE rose 45.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +45.0% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +34.1% → vs SPY = +45.0 − (+34.1) = +10.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 45.0, vs SPY 10.9)
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    · WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Brad Gerstner, Chamath | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: CLOV→MISS (-16.1%)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2020-09-09)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG SPCEstock PRIMARY IPOA/Virgin Galactic — the complex's live, trading proof point
▲ LONG CLOVstock adjacent IPOC → Clover Health, lined up at taping
▲ LONG OPENstock adjacent IPOB → Opendoor, announced and lined up at taping

Mention log newest first

Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E45 (2021-09-04) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 23:25 OPPOSE
“Doesn't it introduce the risk of the retail investor? We're seeing more retail participation via syndicates, via one-off investments, online marketplaces, and also SPACs, where the retail investor relies on Chamath ... is there not some inevitable kind of SEC backlash and consideration around how are private companies ultimately raising money and how much they are disclosing? We face this regulatory threat.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E30 (2021-04-23) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 1:16:04 SUPPORT
“I am one of five groups that put up any money when we do a pipe in our deals. ... So, for example, like, you know, in SoFi, I think we put in $275 million.”
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) equities 48% · n=22 · E29 (2021-04-17) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 2:03 SUPPORT
“The truth of the matter is Chamath is pioneering here. And I think it's been incredible to watch the competition in choice. And as Chamath knows, I participated in a couple of the deals that he's done.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E28 (2021-04-01) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 5:54 OPPOSE
“it seems like there's also a deleveraging happening with the funds that bought a lot of these SPACs and DSPAC listings in the aftermarket, right? ... Which kind of creates a bit of a logjam on the back end for a lot of these.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E28 (2021-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 2:56 OPPOSE
“Any random dog and cat was able to raise a SPAC in Q1. And now on the backend, you're going to start seeing some real difficulty. So deals are getting re-traded constantly, which means that IPOs that should have been done at price X is getting discounted by 20% and 30% to get the deal done.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E26 (2021-03-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:03:59 SUPPORT
“And this is where the SPAC makes a ton of sense, because you have a very certain cost of capital. You can now architect a cap table where the founder remains in control, where they and the employees are still more than 50 percent. And you pull in the time of the IPO. Why is that important? Typically today, these companies were taking 12 plus years to go public. Now with SPACs, they've come back in and they're closer to seven and eight years.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E26 (2021-03-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 54:25 SUPPORT
“Last year, $80 billion was raised in Spacks. This quarter, $100 billion in Spacks. And Spacks are that you cross over investing. It's taking, you know, growth stage, private equity style risk in the public markets with this proliferation of capital. And we're seeing the benefit in the early stage. ... And I think, you know, I think it's the next step up and we just keep seeing these step ups.”
Jason
Jason equities 49% · n=105 · E26 (2021-03-20) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:36 BRUSH_OFF
“Oh, so, so, you know, live by the SPAC, die by the SPAC. That's what they always say in this business.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E25 (2021-03-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:06:25 SUPPORT
“a lot of the folks on Twitter, you know, when you see the market straight down and they complain, my reaction is stop crying and do your own work”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E25 (2021-03-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:04:14 OPPOSE
“there's more speculative risk seeking in the public markets in a way that I don't think we've ever seen ... But it's going to be a lot of speculative betting and a lot of losses”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E24 (2021-03-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 6:22 REVERSAL
“So in many ways, the SPAC market benefited from rates at zero because you could synthetically be long SPACs as almost the way of being synthetically long fixed income. ... Now as rates go up, that's not true.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E22 (2021-02-13) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:17 SUPPORT
“we should have Friedberg tell the story of Metromile, but it closed its SPAC transaction and went public and it's doing great”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E16 (2021-01-08) · positioning · strength 1 ▶ 1:21:20 SUPPORT
“IPOE is merging with SoFi. It's an incredible company led by an incredible CEO, Anthony Noto. [Friedberg: 'It doubled today. It's insane.']”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E8 (2020-09-19) · positioning · strength 1 ▶ 1:23:04 SUPPORT
“We just announced three — D, E, and F... they're filed with the SEC now... [and IPOB = Opendoor] was announced on Tuesday.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E7 (2020-09-09) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 59:52 SUPPORT
“I reserved IPO A through Z on the NYSE. I hope to fulfill that. And I think I will... My personal perspective, it's probably us and maybe one or two other people who really dominate the space... In every deal, I write a minimum of $100 million personally, and that's a lot. That's skin in the game.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath
Chamath 42%
9 scoring events · 63% of moves
+94.1 / -36.3 → net +57.8
Friedberg
Friedberg 43%
4 scoring events · 23% of moves
+13.5 / -33.6 → net -20.1
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner 48% regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 11% of moves
+23.1 → net +23.1
Jason
Jason 49%
1 scoring event · 3% of moves
+0.0 / -5.5 → net -5.5

⏳ decay drained -40.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E7 2020-09-09 init +36.0 36.0 E7 born by Chamath (positioning x3)
E8 2020-09-19 reinforce +7.7 43.7 E8 Chamath support x1
E9 2020-10-03 decay -1.7 41.9 E9 silent
E10 2020-10-16 decay -1.7 40.3 E10 silent
E11 2020-11-04 decay -1.6 38.6 E11 silent
E12 2020-11-11 decay -1.5 37.1 E12 silent
E14 2020-12-04 decay -1.5 35.6 E14 silent
E15 2020-12-18 decay -1.4 34.2 E15 silent
E16 2021-01-08 reinforce +7.9 42.1 E16 Chamath support x1
E17 2021-01-11 decay -1.7 40.4 E17 silent
E18 2021-01-23 decay -1.6 38.8 E18 silent
E19 2021-01-30 decay -1.6 37.2 E19 silent
E20 2021-02-03 decay -1.5 35.7 E20 silent
E21 2021-02-06 decay -1.4 34.3 E21 silent
E22 2021-02-13 reinforce +7.9 42.2 E22 Chamath support x1
E23 2021-02-20 decay -1.7 40.5 E23 silent
E24 2021-03-06 reversal -24.3 16.2 E24 Chamath flips
E25 2021-03-13 oppose -12.0 4.2 E25 Friedberg opposes x2
E25 2021-03-13 reinforce +11.5 15.7 E25 Chamath support x1 (flipped from reversal)
E26 2021-03-20 brush_off -5.5 10.2 E26 Jason brushes off
E26 2021-03-20 reinforce +13.5 23.7 E26 Friedberg support x2 (flipped from oppose)
E26 2021-03-20 reinforce +13.7 37.4 E26 Chamath support x3
E27 2021-03-27 decay -1.5 35.9 E27 silent
E28 2021-04-01 oppose -12.0 23.9 E28 Chamath opposes x2
E28 2021-04-01 oppose -9.6 14.3 E28 Friedberg opposes x1
E29 2021-04-17 reinforce +23.1 37.5 E29 Brad Gerstner support x3 (new voice)
E30 2021-04-23 reinforce +9.4 46.8 E30 Chamath support x2 (flipped from oppose)
E31 2021-05-01 decay -1.9 45.0 E31 silent
E32 2021-05-13 decay -1.8 43.2 E32 silent
E33 2021-05-22 decay -1.7 41.4 E33 silent
E34 2021-05-31 decay -1.7 39.8 E34 silent
E35 2021-06-13 decay -1.6 38.2 E35 silent
E36 2021-06-18 decay -1.5 36.7 E36 silent
E37 2021-06-25 decay -1.5 35.2 E37 silent
E38 2021-07-03 decay -1.4 33.8 E38 silent
E39 2021-07-09 decay -1.4 32.4 E39 silent
E40 2021-07-16 decay -1.3 31.1 E40 silent
E41 2021-07-23 decay -1.2 29.9 E41 silent
E42 2021-07-30 decay -1.2 28.7 E42 silent
E43 2021-08-06 decay -1.1 27.5 E43 silent
E44 2021-08-28 decay -1.1 26.4 E44 silent
E45 2021-09-04 oppose -12.0 14.4 E45 Friedberg opposes x2